本文關(guān)鍵詞：財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)股票價(jià)格影響的實(shí)證研究　出處：《西安工程大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：近年來，我國的股票市場(chǎng)受到越來越多投資者的青睞，不論是市場(chǎng)規(guī)模還是市場(chǎng)地位都得到極大提升。但是，隨著我國股票市場(chǎng)的不斷發(fā)展，其自身仍存在較大的波動(dòng)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，上市公司的股票價(jià)格仍無法完全反映出公司的生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營(yíng)狀況和財(cái)務(wù)狀況。而上市公司股票價(jià)格的變動(dòng)會(huì)給投資者和公司本身帶來較大的影響，所以，研究公司股票價(jià)格究竟受哪方面財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響是十分必要的。 本文從財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)公司股票價(jià)格影響的兩個(gè)方面：內(nèi)部影響因素和外部影響因素入手，先進(jìn)行定性分析，然后在此基礎(chǔ)上采用定量分析的方法，分析出公司主要面臨哪些財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。同時(shí)，分析在不同來源財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響下，公司應(yīng)采取哪些相應(yīng)措施穩(wěn)定并提升股票價(jià)格；投資者是否應(yīng)該進(jìn)行股票投資；進(jìn)行股票投資前，應(yīng)該關(guān)注哪些影響公司股票價(jià)格的因素；這些因素是否可控，投資者能否獲得預(yù)期收益。 本文首先總結(jié)了前人對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與股票價(jià)格之間關(guān)系的研究，在此基礎(chǔ)上，闡述了學(xué)者們對(duì)廣義財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的界定；其次進(jìn)行了財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)股票價(jià)格影響的理論分析和經(jīng)驗(yàn)分析，并基于此提出本文的研究假設(shè)；再次選取2009-2012年間在上證A股市場(chǎng)中交易的上市公司為研究對(duì)象，采用SPSS17.0分析軟件進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析，指標(biāo)篩選后的樣本共計(jì)556家。在實(shí)證研究中，本文將分析時(shí)確定的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)股票價(jià)格影響的內(nèi)外部因素分別采取不同的方法進(jìn)行衡量。對(duì)于外部影響因素，本文采取相關(guān)性分析的方法，確定外部影響因素與股票價(jià)格之間的關(guān)系；對(duì)于內(nèi)部影響因素，本文先通過因子分析將25項(xiàng)公司指標(biāo)進(jìn)行處理，通過篩選后，將11項(xiàng)指標(biāo)綜合成4個(gè)公共因子。再將得出的4個(gè)公共因子和其余14項(xiàng)指標(biāo)代入多元線性回歸方程進(jìn)行回歸分析，通過篩選和檢驗(yàn)，最終得出影響股票價(jià)格的指標(biāo)；最后，本文得出研究結(jié)論，并在研究結(jié)論的基礎(chǔ)上，分別從投資者、公司自身、監(jiān)管者角度提出建議。 本文的研究結(jié)論是：通過相關(guān)性分析研究結(jié)果來看，上證A股指數(shù)與企業(yè)家信心指數(shù)、匯率呈較高的正相關(guān)關(guān)系。分析多元線性回歸結(jié)果可以看出，從長(zhǎng)期來說財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)股票價(jià)格的內(nèi)部影響因素為每股經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)現(xiàn)金凈流量、前十大股東持股比例、國有股持股比例、總資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率、短期償債因子F1、盈利因子F2、長(zhǎng)期償債因子F3、股東獲利因子F4�？傮w來看：上市公司股票價(jià)格受公司償債能力的影響并不大，不論是長(zhǎng)期償債能力還是短期償債能力；上市公司股票價(jià)格受公司盈利能力和股東獲利能力指標(biāo)影響較大；上市公司股票價(jià)格受到營(yíng)運(yùn)能力和每股經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)現(xiàn)金凈流量的影響，然而，公司現(xiàn)金充足與否對(duì)股票價(jià)格的影響不大。財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)內(nèi)、外部因素對(duì)股票價(jià)格均是存在影響的，財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)內(nèi)部因素對(duì)股票價(jià)格變動(dòng)的解釋程度只有50%以上，，說明外部因素也發(fā)揮了很大作用。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the stock market of our country is favored by more and more investors, whether the market scale or the market position has been greatly improved. However, with the continuous development of the stock market in China. There are still large fluctuations and risks. The stock price of the listed company still can not fully reflect the production and operation of the company and the financial situation. However, the change of the stock price of the listed company will have a great impact on the investors and the company itself, so. It is necessary to study which aspects of financial risk affect the stock price of the company. This article from the financial risk to the company stock price influence two aspects: the internal influence factor and the external influence factor, first carries on the qualitative analysis, then uses the quantitative analysis method in this foundation. At the same time, under the influence of different sources of financial risks, the company should take the corresponding measures to stabilize and raise the stock price; Whether investors should invest in stocks; Before investing in stocks, we should pay attention to the factors that affect the company's stock price; Whether these factors are controllable and whether investors can get expected returns. Firstly, this paper summarizes the previous researches on the relationship between financial risk and stock price, and then expounds the definition of generalized financial risk by scholars. Secondly, the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis of the influence of financial risk on stock price are carried out, and based on this, the research hypotheses of this paper are put forward. Thirdly, the listed companies traded in the A-share market of Shanghai Stock Exchange from 2009-2012 are selected as the research objects, and the empirical analysis is carried out by using the SPSS17.0 analysis software. A total of 556 samples were selected. This paper will determine the financial risk of the stock price impact of internal and external factors are measured by different methods. For external factors, this paper adopts the method of correlation analysis. Determine the relationship between external factors and stock prices; For internal factors, this paper first through factor analysis to deal with 25 corporate indicators, after screening. The 11 indexes were synthesized into 4 common factors, and the 4 common factors and the other 14 indexes were added to the multivariate linear regression equation for regression analysis. Finally, the index that affects the stock price is obtained. Finally, this paper draws a conclusion, and on the basis of the conclusions, respectively from the investors, the company itself, the perspective of regulators. The conclusion of this paper is: according to the results of correlation analysis, there is a high positive correlation between Shanghai Stock Exchange A-share Index and entrepreneur confidence index, exchange rate, and the result of multiple linear regression can be seen. In the long run, the internal influencing factors of financial risk to the stock price are net cash flow per share, the proportion of the top ten shareholders, the proportion of state-owned shares, the total asset turnover, and the short-term debt repayment factor F1. Profit factor F2, long-term solvency factor F3, shareholder profit factor F4. in general, the stock price of listed companies is not greatly affected by the company's solvency, whether long-term or short-term solvency; The stock price of listed companies is greatly affected by the profitability of the company and the profitability of shareholders. The stock price of the listed company is affected by the operating ability and the net cash flow per share. However, the cash adequacy of the company has little effect on the stock price. The external factors have an influence on the stock price, and the internal factors of financial risk explain the stock price change only more than 50%, which indicates that the external factors also play a great role.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安工程大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51;F275

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本文編號(hào)：1415306