本文關(guān)鍵詞：商品住宅成本與價(jià)格的變化態(tài)勢(shì)分析　出處：《西南交通大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：本文在國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者關(guān)于商品住宅成本和價(jià)格方面研究的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)商品住宅成本的構(gòu)成及其變化進(jìn)行研究,進(jìn)而從成本角度探討對(duì)價(jià)格變化的影響。在規(guī)范分析的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)我國(guó)2003年至2012年商品住宅市場(chǎng)成本和價(jià)格的變化態(tài)勢(shì)進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析,對(duì)該特定時(shí)期內(nèi)價(jià)格變化的主要影響因素進(jìn)行探討。 首先,本文從住宅市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)方面討論了其與住宅價(jià)格上漲之間的關(guān)系。通過(guò)市場(chǎng)集中度、產(chǎn)品差異和進(jìn)入壁壘分析,推知現(xiàn)階段我國(guó)商品住宅市場(chǎng)屬于壟斷競(jìng)爭(zhēng)結(jié)構(gòu),房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)企業(yè)并不能夠獨(dú)立控制、改變房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格。從市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)分析可知,商品住宅的價(jià)格變動(dòng)并不應(yīng)該歸因于壟斷結(jié)構(gòu),而應(yīng)是城市化過(guò)程中的需求拉動(dòng)所致。 其次,本文針對(duì)商品住宅成本的構(gòu)成及變化進(jìn)行了分析。根據(jù)成本的作用方式不同,將成本分為直接成本和間接成本兩個(gè)大類(lèi),并分別進(jìn)行了討論。在觀察期內(nèi)商品住宅的直接成本總體呈現(xiàn)增加趨勢(shì),土地成本的增加受到政府政策和市場(chǎng)需求的影響,而建設(shè)成本增加則更多的歸因于原材料價(jià)格的上漲和人工費(fèi)用的增加。歸其根本,成本的上升仍是由于商品住宅旺盛的需求而拉動(dòng)所致的。 隨后,本文針對(duì)商品住宅價(jià)格的影響因素及變動(dòng)情況進(jìn)行了分析。自住宅商品化以來(lái),我國(guó)商品住宅的價(jià)格一直保持持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的勢(shì)頭,但以2003年為分界點(diǎn),之前的商品住宅市場(chǎng)發(fā)展較為動(dòng)蕩,之后商品住宅的價(jià)格趨勢(shì)整體而言更有規(guī)律。 最后,本文通過(guò)對(duì)2003年至2012年10年期間的部分宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)的季度進(jìn)行回歸,并通過(guò)對(duì)一階差分序列運(yùn)用格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)法進(jìn)行分析,證實(shí)了我國(guó)商品住宅市場(chǎng)近年來(lái)的價(jià)格變動(dòng)根源是市場(chǎng)的需求拉動(dòng),而非簡(jiǎn)單的成本推動(dòng)。這不僅能夠幫助理解商品住宅市場(chǎng)的運(yùn)作規(guī)律,還能夠?yàn)樯唐纷≌膬r(jià)格波動(dòng)做出一些解釋,具有一定意義。
[Abstract]:The scholars at home and abroad based on the study of commercial housing cost and price, to study the formation and change of commercial housing costs, and to explore the influence of the price change from the perspective of cost. On the basis of normative analysis, the change trend of China from 2003 to 2012, the commercial housing market price and cost of empirical analysis of the main factors of the change of the price of a specific period of time.
First, this paper discusses the relationship between housing price rising from the structure of the residential market. The market concentration, product differentiation and barriers to entry analysis, from the commercial housing market in our country at the present stage belongs to monopoly structure, real estate development enterprises are not able to independently control, change the price of the real estate market analysis from the market. The structure, changes in the price of commercial housing should not be attributed to the monopoly structure, but should be caused by demand in the process of the city.
Secondly, this article analyzes the structure and change of commercial housing cost. According to the mode of action of the different cost, the cost will be divided into direct and indirect costs of two categories, and are also discussed. An upward trend in the direct costs of the observation period of residential overall, the increase in the cost of land affected by the government policy and market demand, and increase the construction cost increase is more due to the rising prices of raw materials and labor costs. The cost is still rising, while stimulating due to commercial housing demand.
Then, this article analyzes the influencing factors of housing price and changes. Since the commercialization of housing, commercial housing prices in China have maintained a sustained growth momentum, but the cut-off point in 2003, before the development of commercial housing market is more volatile, the price trend of commercial housing after the whole more regularly.
Finally, the regression based part of the 2003 to 2012 period of 10 years of macroeconomic indicators for the quarter, and based on the first-order difference sequence using the Grainger test for causal analysis, confirmed that China's commercial housing market in recent years, the price change is rooted in market demand, rather than simply the cost push. Can not only help to understand the operation law of the commercial housing market, also can make some explanation for the price fluctuation of commercial housing, has a certain significance.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F224;F299.23

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