本文關鍵詞：臺灣桃園縣房地產政策效益模擬與評價　出處：《華中科技大學》2015年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 政策績效模擬 政策評價 系統(tǒng)動態(tài)學 房地產政策 桃園縣

【摘要】：房地產營建業(yè)是臺灣的火車頭產業(yè),房地產開發(fā)案會帶動相當多的延伸產業(yè),例如水泥、木材、鋼鐵設計、營建、裝潢、銷售、保險、銀行貸款等,世界各國皆為了房地產營建業(yè)的永續(xù)經營付出非常大的心力。由于政府的房地產業(yè)營運政策至少有活絡臺灣房地產景氣、降低空屋率、提高擁屋率、合理化調整房價四大政策目標,但是各個目標間本身會相互沖突,且政府的施政手段常有時間遞延性；所以在目前的時間點預測未來的政策需求,進而進行政策評估以選出一個符合未來政策需求的政策手段是一個重要工作。 本研究提出適合評估臺灣桃園縣房地產業(yè)營運政策效益的因果循環(huán)圖與系統(tǒng)動態(tài)模型。為了驗證本方法的實用性,本論文針對9項臺灣桃園縣的房地產業(yè)營運政策進行政策效益仿真,結果顯示本論文方法所選出的四項政策低貸款利率政策、調高土地增值稅政策、蓋國民住宅政策和調高通勤補助政策以系統(tǒng)動態(tài)學方法進行仿真其對臺灣桃園縣房地產業(yè)營運的四個政策目標皆有顯著效益。為了驗證復合式政策的綜效,本研究模擬出在不同房地產營運政策目標下其最適的復合式政策,分別是活絡臺灣桃園縣房地產景氣使用調低貸款利率政策搭配調高通勤補助政策的復合式政策、降低空屋率使用調高通勤補助政策搭配調低貸款利率政策的復合式政策、提高擁屋率使用調高土地增值稅政策搭配調低貸款利率政策的復合式政策、合理化調整房價使用調低貸款利率政策搭配蓋國民住宅政策的復合式政策,其中,調低貸款利率政策在單一營運政策和復合式政策都有優(yōu)良表現(xiàn),亦是現(xiàn)實環(huán)境中最常被使用與被研究的政策。本論文亦使用交集法與層級分析法發(fā)展臺灣桃園縣房地產業(yè)營運政策效益評價,根據實驗結果,系統(tǒng)動態(tài)模型針對特定政策目標選出的最佳營運政策在以專家意見為基礎的不同多準則決策分析方法中亦會選出相同的最佳營運決策,由此可見,本論文之系統(tǒng)動態(tài)模型在實務運作上可選出與專家群體意見一致的政策方案。
[Abstract]:Real estate construction is the locomotive industry in Taiwan, the real estate development case will lead to considerable extension of industries, such as cement, wood, iron and steel design, construction, decoration, sales, insurance, bank loans, the countries of the world to the sustainable management of real estate construction cost is very large because of the government's effort. The real estate industry operating policies at least active Taiwan real estate boom, reducing the vacancy rate, improve home ownership rate, reasonable prices four policy goals, but the goal itself will conflict with each other, and the government's policy often means sometimes direct ductility; so the forecast future demand policy at the present time, then policy evaluation to select a line with the future policy needs of policy instruments is an important work.
This study proposes to evaluate the benefits of operating policies of Taiwan Taoyuan County real estate industry and the causal loop diagram of system dynamic model. In order to verify the practicability of this method, this thesis focuses on the 9 Taiwan Taoyuan County Real Estate Trading Policy industry policy benefit simulation results show that the method of the selected four low loan policy the interest rate policy, increase the land value-added tax policy, national housing policy and increase the cover with the method of system dynamics commuting subsidies policy simulation of Taiwan Taoyuan County real estate operating the four policy goals have significant benefits. In order to verify the composite policy synergy, this study simulated the composite policy the most suitable in different real estate operations policy goals, are active in Taiwan Taoyuan County real estate boom with lower loan interest rate policy collocation composite policy high commuting subsidy policy, reduce High vacancy rate by adjusting the commuter subsidy policy collocation composite policy lower loan interest rate policy, improve the home ownership rate using high land value increment tax policy collocation composite policy lowered the loan interest rate policy, composite policy, reasonable price adjustment using lower loan interest rate policy Gai Guomin collocation housing policy, lower loan interest rate policy in the a single operation policy and composite policy has excellent performance, is in reality the most commonly used and studied. This paper also uses the development policy operation policy benefit evaluation of Taiwan Taoyuan County real estate intersection method and analytic hierarchy process, according to the experimental results, the system dynamic model for the specific policy objectives selected the best operation the policy analysis method will also be selected as the best operational decisions, thus in different multi criteria decision making based on expert opinion, the In the practical operation, the system dynamic model can select a policy plan that is consistent with the opinion of the expert group.

【學位授予單位】：華中科技大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F299.23
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本文編號：1391934