本文關鍵詞：消費信貸的經(jīng)濟效應分析　出處：《湖南師范大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 消費信貸 消費 投資 出口 VAR模型

【摘要】：隨著全球經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展,經(jīng)濟金融自由化程度越來越高,國家之間的聯(lián)系越來越緊密。改革開放以來以及我國加入WTO后,經(jīng)濟開放程度進一步擴大,國外經(jīng)濟發(fā)展對我國國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展狀況的影響程度也越來越大。外商投資以及對外貿(mào)易具有極大的不穩(wěn)定性和不可控性,這使我國經(jīng)濟一直存在熱錢流入過大,外貿(mào)依存度過高的特點,加大了我國經(jīng)濟的不穩(wěn)定性。1997年全球金融危機的爆發(fā)以及美國的次貸危機引發(fā)的全球經(jīng)濟衰退,暴露了這種高投資,高出口經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式的弊端,我國當前迫切需要改變這種經(jīng)濟增長結構。我國政府將擴大內(nèi)需,特別是擴大居民消費需求作為緩解和改善我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展不平衡的重要舉措,將經(jīng)濟發(fā)展轉(zhuǎn)移到依靠國內(nèi)需求特別是消費需求上來。西方發(fā)達國家的實踐經(jīng)驗表明,消費信貸的平穩(wěn)較快發(fā)展對擴大內(nèi)需,拉動經(jīng)濟發(fā)展具有十分重大的意義,同時,消費信貸的發(fā)展能夠擴大消費,提高消費對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的貢獻度,有利于轉(zhuǎn)變我國當前高投資,高出口,低消費的經(jīng)濟增長結構。 本文首先對當前學者已有的研究成果進行梳理總結,然后從理論上分析了消費信貸對消費、投資、出口的影響路徑,最后通過單位根檢驗、協(xié)整分析,格蘭杰因果檢驗,誤差修正模型,脈沖響應分析以及方差分解對理論分析進行實證檢驗。研究結果表明：消費信貸在擴大居民的消費需求的同時還將抑制投資的過度增長,但是,消費信貸和出口需求之間沒有明顯的長期關系。同時,由于我國消費信貸起步晚,發(fā)展還不夠成熟,對消費、投資變動的貢獻度很小。在實證檢驗的基礎上,基于我國當前的國情,本文主要從政府、居民個人、金融機構以及外部環(huán)境的角度提出了促進消費信貸發(fā)展的政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the development of global economy, economic and financial liberalization degree more and more high, countries are getting increasingly connected. Since the reform and opening up, China's accession to the WTO, the degree of openness to further expand foreign economic development impact on the development of domestic economy in China is also more and more foreign investment and foreign trade has. A great deal of uncertainty and uncontrollability, which make the economy of our country has been the inflow of hot money is too large, the characteristics of high degree of dependence on foreign trade, increase of China's economic instability.1997 global financial crisis, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis triggered a global economic recession, the exposure of high investment, high export economy problems the way of development, the current urgent need to change the structure of economic growth. The Chinese government will expand domestic demand, especially expanding consumer demand for relief and improve our country An important measure of unbalanced economic development, economic development will shift to rely on domestic demand, especially consumer demand. The western developed countries experience shows that the steady and rapid development of consumer credit to expand domestic demand, it is of great significance to promote economic development, at the same time, the development of consumer credit to expand consumption, increase the contribution of consumption on economic development, is conducive to the transformation of China's current high investment, high exports, economic growth structure and low consumption.
This paper first discusses the research scholars summarize, then analyses the investment of consumer credit on consumption, in theory, affect the path of export, and finally through the unit root test, cointegration analysis, Grainger causality test, error correction model, impulse response of theoretical analysis empirical analysis and variance decomposition results. Show that excessive growth of consumer credit will inhibit investment also in expanding consumer demand at the same time but no long-term relationship between consumer credit and export demand. At the same time, because of consumer credit in China started late, development is not mature enough to change the contribution of consumption, investment is small. Based on empirical test on the current situation of our country based on this paper, mainly from the government, individuals, financial institutions and the external environment angle put forward to promote the development of consumer credit policy Suggestion.

【學位授予單位】：湖南師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.4

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本文編號：1384400