本文關(guān)鍵詞：商品房市場(chǎng)非均衡與貨幣政策的關(guān)系研究　出處：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 商品房市場(chǎng)非均衡 貨幣政策 VEC模型 SVAR模型

【摘要】：自1998年福利分房制度取消以來(lái)，我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)得到了飛躍發(fā)展。如今，，房地產(chǎn)業(yè)在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中占據(jù)著重要的地位，關(guān)系國(guó)計(jì)民生和社會(huì)穩(wěn)定。然而，房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的過(guò)熱成長(zhǎng)引發(fā)了一系列的問(wèn)題，如房?jī)r(jià)高位攀升、供給結(jié)構(gòu)失調(diào)、保障體系匱乏、投機(jī)行為和市場(chǎng)泡沫滋生等，所以說(shuō)，我國(guó)目前的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)存在著嚴(yán)重的非均衡發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。為此，我國(guó)政府采取了一系列的宏觀調(diào)控措施來(lái)控制市場(chǎng)的非理性波動(dòng)，其中貨幣政策是最為常見(jiàn)，且影響最為顯著、作用效果最為迅速的手段。因此，本文將著重挖掘商品房市場(chǎng)的非均衡發(fā)展?fàn)顩r，同時(shí)對(duì)其與貨幣政策之間的關(guān)系及影響機(jī)理進(jìn)行深入而全面的探討。 首先，文章對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的非均衡和貨幣政策的相關(guān)理論進(jìn)行闡釋和描述，定性分析貨幣政策對(duì)市場(chǎng)非均衡產(chǎn)生的影響，以及房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要意義；其次，文章通過(guò)雙曲線(xiàn)聚合方程和灰色GM(1，1)模型來(lái)分析我國(guó)98年之后的商品房市場(chǎng)非均衡變動(dòng)情況，并預(yù)測(cè)出2012年之后市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展走勢(shì)。結(jié)果表明：1998年至2012年間，我國(guó)商品房市場(chǎng)的非均衡狀況呈現(xiàn)波動(dòng)變化，通過(guò)非均衡度指標(biāo)可以將商品房市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展劃分為4個(gè)階段，目前市場(chǎng)處于供不應(yīng)求狀態(tài)。從灰色模型的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果來(lái)看，如果按照當(dāng)下的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)，2012年之后的三年內(nèi)，市場(chǎng)的需求量仍然較大，超過(guò)供給量。 最后，文章綜合運(yùn)用VEC模型、脈沖響應(yīng)、方差分解、Granger因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)等計(jì)量方法來(lái)研究市場(chǎng)的非均衡與貨幣政策之間的關(guān)系，探索貨幣政策對(duì)商品房數(shù)量非均衡和結(jié)構(gòu)非均衡的影響；在此基礎(chǔ)上，建立貨幣政策、商品房市場(chǎng)與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)之間的SVAR模型，進(jìn)一步研究商品房市場(chǎng)的均衡發(fā)展在貨幣政策向宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)傳導(dǎo)過(guò)程中發(fā)揮的效用。從實(shí)證結(jié)果來(lái)看，貨幣政策對(duì)商品房數(shù)量非均衡的影響力要高于對(duì)結(jié)構(gòu)非均衡的作用，貨幣供應(yīng)量和金融機(jī)構(gòu)貸款規(guī)模能夠?qū)Ψ康禺a(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的供給和需求起到正向促進(jìn)作用，而利率則起到了相反的效應(yīng)。貨幣供給量對(duì)商品房供給結(jié)構(gòu)失衡的調(diào)整效果要優(yōu)于利率政策。此外，在貨幣政策向宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的傳導(dǎo)過(guò)程中，商品房市場(chǎng)起著中間媒介的作用，其對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的產(chǎn)出和物價(jià)有著重要貢獻(xiàn)，所以說(shuō)商品房市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展對(duì)貨幣政策的調(diào)控效果起決定性作用。前期貨幣政策對(duì)商品房市場(chǎng)的傳導(dǎo)過(guò)程較為通暢，作用成效顯著，然而后期由于商品房市場(chǎng)的非均衡問(wèn)題使得傳導(dǎo)過(guò)程受到阻礙，尤其是對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)消費(fèi)的拉動(dòng)效果不顯著。
[Abstract]:Since the abolition of welfare housing allocation system in 1998, the real estate market in China has been developed by leaps and bounds. Nowadays, the real estate industry occupies an important position in the national economy, which has a bearing on the national economy and people's livelihood and social stability. The overheated growth of the real estate market has led to a series of problems, such as the high rise in house prices, the imbalance of supply structure, the lack of security system, speculation and market bubbles, so said. China's real estate market has a serious trend of unbalanced development. Therefore, our government has taken a series of macro-control measures to control the irrational fluctuations of the market, among which monetary policy is the most common. And the most significant impact, the most rapid effect of the means. Therefore, this paper will focus on the non-balanced development of the commercial housing market. At the same time, the relationship between it and monetary policy and its influence mechanism are discussed deeply and comprehensively. First of all, the paper explains and describes the disequilibrium of the real estate market and the relevant theories of monetary policy, and qualitatively analyzes the impact of monetary policy on the non-equilibrium of the market. And the significance of real estate market to the development of real economy; Secondly, through hyperbolic polymerization equation and grey GM1 / 1) model, this paper analyzes the non-equilibrium changes of commercial housing market in China after 98 years. The results show that: from 1998 to 2012, the non-equilibrium situation of China's commercial housing market fluctuates. The development of commercial housing market can be divided into four stages through the index of non-equilibrium. The current market is in a state of shortage of supply. According to the forecast results of grey model, if according to the current trend of development. Three years after 2012, the market demand is still large, more than supply. Finally, the paper uses VEC model, impulse response, variance decomposition and Granger causality test to study the relationship between market disequilibrium and monetary policy. To explore the influence of monetary policy on the quantity and structure of commercial housing; On this basis, the paper establishes the SVAR model between the monetary policy, the commercial housing market and the macro economy. Further study of the commercial housing market balanced development in the monetary policy to the macroeconomic transmission process play a role. From the empirical results. The influence of monetary policy on the quantity disequilibrium of commercial housing is higher than that on structural disequilibrium. Money supply and loan scale of financial institutions can play a positive role in promoting the supply and demand of real estate market. The effect of money supply on the imbalance of supply structure of commodity housing is better than that of interest rate policy. In addition, in the transmission process from monetary policy to macro economy. Commercial housing market plays an intermediary role, which has an important contribution to macroeconomic output and prices. Therefore, the development of the commercial housing market plays a decisive role in the regulatory effect of monetary policy. However, due to the non-equilibrium of the commercial housing market, the conduction process is hindered, especially for the real economy consumption pull effect is not significant.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F299.23;F822.0

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