本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國(guó)城市土地市場(chǎng)和住房市場(chǎng)互動(dòng)機(jī)制的微觀研究　出處：《清華大學(xué)》2013年博士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 土地市場(chǎng) 住房市場(chǎng) 交易價(jià)格 交易概率 土地制度

【摘要】：土地市場(chǎng)和住房市場(chǎng)的互動(dòng)關(guān)系一直是國(guó)內(nèi)外理論和實(shí)踐中關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題。近十年來(lái)，隨著我國(guó)城市土地價(jià)格和住房?jī)r(jià)格持續(xù)快速上漲，相關(guān)爭(zhēng)論愈發(fā)凸顯。此外，在我國(guó)制度特點(diǎn)下，地方政府壟斷土地供給并逐漸形成“土地財(cái)政”，對(duì)上述市場(chǎng)互動(dòng)機(jī)制存在不可忽視的影響，，從而使得關(guān)于我國(guó)城市土地市場(chǎng)和住房市場(chǎng)互動(dòng)關(guān)系的討論更加復(fù)雜也更加必要。 論文首先基于土地市場(chǎng)引致需求理論和住房市場(chǎng)價(jià)格發(fā)現(xiàn)理論，以?xún)r(jià)格為市場(chǎng)間信號(hào)，提出了微觀層面理想條件下土地市場(chǎng)和住房市場(chǎng)互動(dòng)機(jī)制的理論分析框架——“信號(hào)—預(yù)期”理論模型。在該理論模型框架下，論文重點(diǎn)分析了作為市場(chǎng)互動(dòng)機(jī)制核心問(wèn)題的土地價(jià)格和住房?jī)r(jià)格內(nèi)生關(guān)系的成立條件和變化規(guī)律，同時(shí)分析了我國(guó)制度特點(diǎn)下政府行為對(duì)市場(chǎng)互動(dòng)機(jī)制的影響途徑和影響效果�；凇靶盘�(hào)—預(yù)期”理論模型，論文對(duì)北京市土地市場(chǎng)和住房市場(chǎng)互動(dòng)機(jī)制進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)的實(shí)證研究。實(shí)證研究結(jié)果驗(yàn)證了理論模型的正確性，分析了土地市場(chǎng)和住房市場(chǎng)相互影響的效果和變化規(guī)律，證明了政府行為對(duì)于市場(chǎng)運(yùn)行存在的影響。 論文研究的主要結(jié)論有：（1）微觀層面上，住房?jī)r(jià)格通過(guò)引致需求渠道影響土地市場(chǎng)價(jià)格和開(kāi)發(fā)時(shí)機(jī)，土地價(jià)格通過(guò)價(jià)格發(fā)現(xiàn)過(guò)程影響住房?jī)r(jià)格和交易概率，價(jià)格是兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)互動(dòng)機(jī)制的重要紐帶；（2）土地價(jià)格和住房?jī)r(jià)格的內(nèi)生關(guān)系及其均衡水平依條件成立和變化；（3）“土地財(cái)政”對(duì)住房市場(chǎng)價(jià)格發(fā)現(xiàn)過(guò)程存在強(qiáng)化影響；（4）北京市土地市場(chǎng)存在顯著的壟斷結(jié)構(gòu)，住房市場(chǎng)存在顯著的壟斷競(jìng)爭(zhēng)結(jié)構(gòu)和非有效性；（5）北京市土地價(jià)格和住房?jī)r(jià)格存在顯著的內(nèi)生關(guān)系，“土地財(cái)政”進(jìn)一步推高了住房?jī)r(jià)格；（6）北京市住房交易概率與周邊土地價(jià)格正相關(guān)，但相關(guān)性受空間距離和市場(chǎng)趨勢(shì)等因素影響；（7）周邊住房?jī)r(jià)格上漲會(huì)提高政府的土地出讓概率，但政府對(duì)土地市場(chǎng)的壟斷將延緩?fù)恋爻鲎寱r(shí)間。 論文建議逐步推進(jìn)房產(chǎn)稅制度改革、地方政府債券制度建設(shè)和土地出讓收入用途調(diào)整，并在條件適宜時(shí)推動(dòng)城市土地管理職能的分散和下移。通過(guò)以上措施，優(yōu)化地方政府收入結(jié)構(gòu)、提高土地市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)程度、降低政府行為對(duì)城市土地市場(chǎng)和住房市場(chǎng)運(yùn)行的干擾，進(jìn)而促進(jìn)城市土地市場(chǎng)和住房市場(chǎng)的良性互動(dòng)，促進(jìn)住房市場(chǎng)的平穩(wěn)健康發(fā)展和城市化進(jìn)程的順利推進(jìn)。
[Abstract]:The interaction between land market and housing market has been a hot issue in theory and practice at home and abroad. In recent ten years, with the rapid increase of urban land price and housing price in China. In addition, under the characteristics of our system, local governments monopolize land supply and gradually form "land finance", which can not be ignored on the above market interaction mechanism. Therefore, it is more complicated and necessary to discuss the interactive relationship between urban land market and housing market in China. Firstly, based on the land market induced demand theory and the housing market price discovery theory, the paper takes the price as the inter-market signal. In this paper, a theoretical analysis framework of the interaction mechanism between land market and housing market at the microcosmic level is proposed, which is called "signal-expectation" theoretical model under the framework of the theoretical model. The paper focuses on the analysis of the establishment conditions and changing laws of the endogenous relationship between land price and housing price, which is the core issue of the market interaction mechanism. At the same time, it analyzes the influence ways and effects of government behavior on the market interaction mechanism under the system characteristics of our country, which is based on the signal-expectation theory model. The paper makes a systematic and empirical study on the interaction mechanism between the land market and housing market in Beijing. The empirical results verify the correctness of the theoretical model. This paper analyzes the effect and changing law of the interaction between the land market and the housing market, and proves the influence of the government behavior on the operation of the market. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) on the micro level, the housing price influences the land market price and the development opportunity through the channel of induced demand. Land price affects housing price and transaction probability through the process of price discovery, and price is an important link between the two interactive market mechanisms. (2) the endogenous relationship between land price and housing price and its equilibrium level are established and changed according to the conditions; (3) "land finance" has a strong influence on the process of price discovery in housing market; (4) the land market in Beijing has a significant monopoly structure, and the housing market has a significant monopoly competition structure and non-effectiveness; (5) there is a significant endogenous relationship between land price and housing price in Beijing, and "land finance" further pushes up housing price; (6) the probability of housing transaction in Beijing is positively related to the price of surrounding land, but the correlation is affected by space distance and market trend. Higher peripheral housing prices will increase the government's probability of land transfer, but the government's monopoly on the land market will delay the land transfer time. The paper proposes to gradually promote the reform of the property tax system, the local government bond system construction and land transfer income use adjustment, and to promote the decentralization of urban land management functions and move down when the conditions are appropriate. Through the above measures. Optimize the structure of local government revenue, improve the degree of competition in the land market, reduce the interference of government behavior to the operation of urban land market and housing market, and then promote the benign interaction between urban land market and housing market. To promote the smooth and healthy development of the housing market and the smooth progress of urbanization.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：清華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F299.23

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