本文關(guān)鍵詞：全流通背景下我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)運(yùn)行與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量之間的相關(guān)性研究　出處：《沈陽(yáng)理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 全流通 股票市場(chǎng) 宏觀經(jīng) 主成分回歸分析

【摘要】：中國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)的形成與發(fā)展受到我國(guó)特定的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境和早期嚴(yán)格計(jì)劃經(jīng)濟(jì)體質(zhì)的限制，最突出的問(wèn)題就是市場(chǎng)上流通股和非流通股并存的二元結(jié)構(gòu)問(wèn)題。2005年4月，中國(guó)證券監(jiān)督管理委員會(huì)啟動(dòng)股權(quán)分置改革試點(diǎn)工作，實(shí)現(xiàn)股市全流通，充分發(fā)揮資本市場(chǎng)在資源配置中的作用。截止2007年12月，滬、深兩市完成或者已進(jìn)入股改程序的公司占應(yīng)股改公司的98%，總市值超過(guò)98%�？梢哉f(shuō)中國(guó)股市自此進(jìn)入了全流通，具備“同股、同權(quán)、同利”的“三同”原則，基本實(shí)現(xiàn)了股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)和權(quán)利內(nèi)容的統(tǒng)一。在這種背景下，研究股票價(jià)格影響因素不僅對(duì)于投資者、市場(chǎng)管理者和上市公司經(jīng)營(yíng)決策者等利益相關(guān)者都具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)指導(dǎo)意義，而且對(duì)于完善股票價(jià)格發(fā)現(xiàn)機(jī)制、提升市場(chǎng)效率、充分發(fā)揮股票市場(chǎng)對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的“晴雨表”作用都具有非常重要的理論意義。 本文將宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)分為六大類(lèi)，從中選取15個(gè)變量。再將15個(gè)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量與反應(yīng)我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)運(yùn)行狀況的上證綜指一起建立計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)模型進(jìn)行分析，探討股票市場(chǎng)與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)之間的相關(guān)性，進(jìn)而提出更好發(fā)展我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)的有效建議。本文共分為四章：第一章主要介紹本文的選題背景與研究意義、國(guó)內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀和研究方法和創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)以及研究?jī)?nèi)容、框架。第二章主要是闡述股票市場(chǎng)與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的作用機(jī)理以及其相關(guān)性，為下文的分析奠定理論基礎(chǔ)。第三章是本文的核心部分，主要是利用多種計(jì)量方法對(duì)我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的相關(guān)性問(wèn)題進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析并得出相關(guān)結(jié)論：（1）固定資產(chǎn)投資完成額、社會(huì)消費(fèi)品零售總額、財(cái)政收入、出口總額四個(gè)變量與理論預(yù)期相反，其他都與理論預(yù)期相符合；（2）國(guó)家外匯儲(chǔ)備量、貨幣供應(yīng)量M1、企業(yè)商品價(jià)格指數(shù)是對(duì)我國(guó)股市的影響依次最大的三個(gè)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量。第四章是主要是結(jié)合實(shí)證分析結(jié)果與目前的實(shí)際情況，提出一些有效的政策建議以期進(jìn)一步完善我國(guó)的股票市場(chǎng)。
[Abstract]:The formation and development of China's stock market is restricted by the specific economic environment and the early strict planned economy. In April 2005, the China Securities Regulatory Commission started the pilot reform of the split share structure to realize the full circulation of the stock market. As of December 2007, 98% of the companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have completed or entered the stock reform process. It can be said that since then China's stock market has entered the full circulation, with the principle of "one share, one right, and the same interest," basically realizing the unity of the ownership structure and the content of the right. The study of the influencing factors of stock price not only has important practical significance for the stakeholders such as investors, market managers and listed company management decision makers, but also for the improvement of the stock price discovery mechanism. It is of great theoretical significance to improve market efficiency and give full play to the role of stock market in macroeconomic barometer. In this paper, macroeconomic indicators are divided into six categories. Choose 15 variables, and then 15 macroeconomic variables and reflect the operation of the stock market in China's Shanghai Composite Index together to establish an econometric model for analysis. This article is divided into four chapters: the first chapter mainly introduces the background and significance of this paper. Domestic and foreign research status, research methods and innovations, as well as research content, framework. The second chapter mainly describes the mechanism of stock market and macroeconomic variables and its relevance. The third chapter is the core of this paper. Mainly using a variety of econometric methods to analyze the correlation between the stock market and macroeconomic variables in China and draw the relevant conclusions: 1) the total amount of investment in fixed assets and the total retail sales of consumer goods. The four variables of fiscal revenue and total export amount are contrary to theoretical expectations, and the others are in line with theoretical expectations; National foreign exchange reserves, money supply M1. Enterprise commodity price index is the three macroeconomic variables that have the greatest impact on the stock market in turn. Chapter 4th is mainly based on the empirical analysis results and the current actual situation. Some effective policy suggestions are put forward to further improve the stock market in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：沈陽(yáng)理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.51;F124

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