本文關(guān)鍵詞： 價(jià)值評(píng)估 股權(quán)價(jià)值 戰(zhàn)略財(cái)務(wù)分析 自由現(xiàn)金流量　出處：《山東大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近年來,國內(nèi)外金融市場風(fēng)起云涌,跌宕起伏,大規(guī)模的并購活動(dòng)層出不窮。同時(shí),隨著科學(xué)技術(shù)的發(fā)展,金融產(chǎn)品的類別成千上萬,投資平臺(tái)更是在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的助力下數(shù)不勝數(shù)�？傊�,金融環(huán)境更加錯(cuò)綜復(fù)雜。在這樣的背景下,選擇合適的投資對(duì)象需要更多科學(xué)的分析和準(zhǔn)確的評(píng)估。因此,對(duì)虛擬商品的價(jià)值評(píng)估成了投資者迫切關(guān)注的問題。制造業(yè)是國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱,通訊設(shè)備制造板塊是制造業(yè)的重要組成部分。另外,從市值、營業(yè)收入、市場占有率、產(chǎn)品線等多個(gè)方面分析,中興通訊都是通訊設(shè)備制造業(yè)的典型代表。因此,本文以中興通訊為研究對(duì)象,運(yùn)用案例研究法與文獻(xiàn)研究法對(duì)中興通訊的股權(quán)價(jià)值進(jìn)行了評(píng)估。文章首先介紹了價(jià)值評(píng)估的方法及理論,對(duì)每種方法的含義、特點(diǎn)及適用范圍進(jìn)行了分析,為下文的具體運(yùn)用作鋪墊。接著講述了中興通訊的基本情況及通訊設(shè)備制造業(yè)的現(xiàn)狀和特征,加深我們對(duì)公司概況和行業(yè)背景的掌握。隨后對(duì)中興通訊的戰(zhàn)略財(cái)務(wù)分析讓我們了解了公司的償債能力、盈利能力和營運(yùn)能力以及公司初步戰(zhàn)略的合理性和執(zhí)行情況。最后,結(jié)合戰(zhàn)略財(cái)務(wù)分析的結(jié)果,運(yùn)用現(xiàn)金流折現(xiàn)法對(duì)公司的股權(quán)價(jià)值進(jìn)行了評(píng)估,得出了較市場交易價(jià)格更為積極的結(jié)果。本文在計(jì)算中興通訊的自由現(xiàn)金流時(shí),將企業(yè)的資產(chǎn)和負(fù)債從經(jīng)營和金融的角度進(jìn)行了區(qū)分,重新編制了管理用財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表。中興通訊是一家通訊設(shè)備制造企業(yè),企業(yè)的正常運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)是在產(chǎn)品和要素市場上進(jìn)行,價(jià)值的創(chuàng)造符合傳統(tǒng)制造業(yè)的特征,與資本市場上的投融資活動(dòng)關(guān)系不大。因此,上述處理能夠增強(qiáng)中興通訊自由現(xiàn)金流計(jì)算的準(zhǔn)確性。另外,CAPM模型假定β為常數(shù),然而近年來關(guān)于β時(shí)變性的研究層出不窮。同時(shí),中興通訊是一家高新技術(shù)企業(yè),高新技術(shù)企業(yè)與其他企業(yè)相比,面臨更大的市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn),抵御系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的能力也在不斷波動(dòng)。因此,本文在運(yùn)用CAPM模型時(shí),將β的時(shí)變特征考慮在內(nèi)。這樣的處理使得求出的目標(biāo)價(jià)值不再是一個(gè)固定的常數(shù),而是一個(gè)合理的區(qū)間,與資本市場的實(shí)際情況更加吻合。本文的研究結(jié)果對(duì)通訊設(shè)備制造業(yè)的價(jià)值評(píng)估具有借鑒意義,同時(shí)有助于企業(yè)管理者提高管理效率,有助于投資者形成正確的投資決策。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the financial markets at home and abroad have been surging, ups and downs, large-scale mergers and acquisitions activities emerge in endlessly. At the same time, with the development of science and technology, thousands of categories of financial products, In short, the financial environment is more complex. In such a context, choosing the right investment target requires more scientific analysis and accurate evaluation. Evaluation of the value of virtual goods has become an urgent concern for investors. Manufacturing is the pillar of the national economy, and the manufacturing sector of communications equipment is an important part of the manufacturing industry. In addition, from market value, business income, market share, According to the analysis of product line and other aspects, ZTE is a typical representative of the communication equipment manufacturing industry. Therefore, this paper takes ZTE as the research object. This paper evaluates the equity value of ZTE by case study and literature research. Firstly, the paper introduces the method and theory of value evaluation, and analyzes the meaning, characteristics and applicable scope of each method. After that, it describes the basic situation of ZTE and the present situation and characteristics of the communication equipment manufacturing industry. To deepen our understanding of the company's profile and industry background. The subsequent strategic financial analysis of ZTE gives us an understanding of the company's solvency, profitability and operational capability, as well as the reasonableness and implementation of the company's initial strategy. Combined with the results of strategic financial analysis, the paper evaluates the equity value of the company by using the discounted cash flow method, and obtains a more positive result than the market transaction price. In this paper, the free cash flow of ZTE is calculated. The assets and liabilities of the enterprise are distinguished from the point of view of operation and finance, and the financial statements for management are recompiled. ZTE is a communications equipment manufacturer whose normal operation is carried out in the product and factor markets. The creation of value accords with the characteristics of traditional manufacturing industry and has little to do with investment and financing activities in the capital market. Therefore, the above treatment can enhance the accuracy of free cash flow calculation of ZTE. In addition, the CAPM model assumes that 尾 is a constant. However, in recent years, there have been endless studies on 尾 -time variability. At the same time, ZTE is a high-tech enterprise. Compared with other enterprises, high-tech enterprises face greater market risks. Therefore, in this paper, the time-varying characteristic of 尾 is taken into account when using the CAPM model, so the target value is not a fixed constant, but a reasonable interval. The results of this paper can be used for reference to evaluate the value of communication equipment manufacturing industry, at the same time, it is helpful for enterprise managers to improve management efficiency and for investors to form correct investment decisions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F626.115

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