本文選題：中國直接投資 + 能源行業(yè)��； 參考：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：本文以能源行業(yè)為例研究了中國直接投資對哈薩克斯坦經(jīng)濟增長的影響。隨著中國的高速發(fā)展,其對進口化石燃料的需求也不斷擴張。為了保證進口能源資源的供給,中國政府支持國有石油公司在海外開展業(yè)務。自1997年開始,中國與哈薩克斯坦建立了親密的政治和經(jīng)濟合作關系,中國國有石油公司的海外投資也在持續(xù)增長。本文探究了中國國有石油公司和其他能源公司之間的互動關系,本文實證發(fā)現(xiàn),中國對哈薩克斯坦的能源投資有助于哈薩克斯坦的經(jīng)濟增長。本文選用哈薩克斯坦能源行業(yè)2000年一季度到2016年四季度的數(shù)據(jù),分析了石油價格、國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)和中國直接投資之間的關系,著重研究了石油價格在哈薩克斯坦經(jīng)濟中扮演的角色。本文發(fā)現(xiàn),石油價格是中國直接投資和哈薩克斯坦經(jīng)濟水平(以GDP為代理變量)的中介變量。本文的主要結(jié)果認為,石油價格在短期內(nèi)對GDP有積極影響。本文的實證分析采用回歸模型�；貧w結(jié)果表明,中國直接投資和經(jīng)濟增長正相關。本文的發(fā)現(xiàn)也為哈薩克斯坦對中國投資的吸引力提供了證據(jù)。本文的目的在于:第一,探索能源行業(yè)如何影響哈薩克斯坦經(jīng)濟發(fā)展;第二,探究中國直接投資是否能夠影響哈薩克斯坦的經(jīng)濟增長;第三,研究石油價格如何影響中國直接投資以及如何影響哈薩克斯坦的經(jīng)濟增長;第四,利用回歸模型分析中國直接投資對哈薩克斯坦能源行業(yè)的影響。一個國家的能源管理是經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的命脈所在,并且對整個國民經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的張力與容量也有重大影響。因此,能源問題已經(jīng)成為一個國家經(jīng)濟、政治、民主和軍事的重要限制因素�，F(xiàn)代社會,評判一個國家的國際經(jīng)濟競爭力時,其能源戰(zhàn)略性控制已經(jīng)尤其重要。隨著經(jīng)濟全球化增長,哈薩克斯坦和中國都進入了高速增長期。從中國行業(yè)發(fā)展的角度看,與哈薩克斯坦的能源資源的聯(lián)系取決于哈薩克斯坦的供給,尤其是在石油和天然氣方面。因此,兩國合作和戰(zhàn)略伙伴關系是基于雙邊經(jīng)濟與社會的和諧發(fā)展。已經(jīng)有不少中國企業(yè)陸續(xù)進入哈薩克斯坦能源行業(yè),創(chuàng)造和挖掘了很多優(yōu)質(zhì)工程項目。本文研究境外投資對哈薩克斯坦經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的影響具有重大意義。近年來,哈薩克斯坦政府強烈鼓勵和支持吸引投資、引入資本和能源行業(yè)發(fā)展,以實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟的復蘇與繁榮。與此同時,來自西方發(fā)達國家的一些大公司也陸續(xù)進入哈薩克斯坦的能源行業(yè)。中國對哈薩克斯坦的資本投入不僅僅是受到本地投資環(huán)境的吸引,也受到西方投資競爭的壓力。基于這樣的考慮,本文深入探討中國直接投資對哈薩克斯坦經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的影響,并指出能源行業(yè)的中介作用。基于境外投資的相關理論和已有文獻,本文提出了中國直接投資影響哈薩克斯坦國民經(jīng)濟的研究模型,以國民生產(chǎn)總值GDP為國民經(jīng)濟的代理變量。近年來,經(jīng)濟學家普遍認為,境外直接投資能夠刺激本地經(jīng)濟發(fā)展。具體來說,境外投資能夠創(chuàng)造就業(yè)、帶來技術(shù)革新、并最終對本地的經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)狀產(chǎn)生宏觀的積極影響。另外,境外直接投資也與東道國的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)革新有關,東道國產(chǎn)業(yè)改革優(yōu)化了本地的整體商業(yè)氛圍,并提升了本地商業(yè)競爭力。哈薩克斯坦作為一個新興國家,以市場關系為導向,精力集中在產(chǎn)業(yè)升級和投資政策的有效實現(xiàn),最終實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟的快速增長。境外投資的吸引和有效利用是必要的,這也是哈薩克斯坦與其他國家的共同利益所在。過去十年,哈薩克斯坦的經(jīng)濟飛速增長,年均增長率超過10%。這份完美答卷的背后,石油和天然氣,還有采礦業(yè)都做出了卓越貢獻。吸引境外投資也成為哈薩克斯坦國家發(fā)展的重要因素。提及投資地點,每個國家和地區(qū)都提供了相當優(yōu)渥的優(yōu)惠政策來吸引和適應各種類型的投資項目。現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟中,石油的最重要的生材料。石油產(chǎn)品在化學品制造業(yè)、交通業(yè)和能源換代中得到相當廣泛的應用。自從石油成為世界生命和經(jīng)濟的重要組成部分,室友和宏觀經(jīng)濟的關系也日益凸顯,并通過石油價格表現(xiàn)出來。經(jīng)濟學長期關注能夠驗證石油價格與宏觀經(jīng)濟指標關系的實證證據(jù)。哈薩克斯坦是石油出口大國,哈薩克斯坦對石油收益的依賴增加了其經(jīng)濟受石油價格外部變動的影響幅度�；谝陨戏治�,本文構(gòu)建了以石油價格為中介變量的中國直接投資影響哈薩克斯坦國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的回歸模型。本文提出兩個假設:第一,中國直接投資與哈薩克斯坦國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值存在正向關系;第二,石油價格對中國直接投資與哈薩克斯坦國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的關系產(chǎn)生影響。本文的主要內(nèi)容如下。第一章為緒論,主要介紹所選題目的重要性和必要性,論述了境外投資及其重要影響。本章試圖包含所有顯示所選題目重要性的材料,同時也指出了本文在撰寫過程中可能遇到的挑戰(zhàn)。第二章為中國直接投資對哈薩克斯坦能源行業(yè)經(jīng)濟的影響理論分析。本章回顧了哈薩克斯坦境外投資的主要理論,尤其是在能源行業(yè)的,還具體描述了哈薩克斯坦能源行業(yè)的特征�；诖�,本章分析了能源行業(yè)在國民經(jīng)濟中的重要角色、中國在哈薩克斯坦能源行業(yè)的加入的里程碑式作用,以及哈薩克斯坦崛起過程中中國所起到的作用。第三章為中國在能源行業(yè)的直接投資對哈薩克斯坦經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的影響實證分析。本章構(gòu)建了中國直接投資對哈薩克斯坦經(jīng)濟增長的回顧模型,并引入石油價格作中介變量,并解釋了回顧結(jié)果。第四章為結(jié)果與討論。本章對論文全篇的信息進行提煉總結(jié),并提出政策建議,以期使文章結(jié)構(gòu)更加完整,也使論文的理論框架和系統(tǒng)政策更加圓滿。本文的研究方法主要采用了線性回歸分析法。本文以國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值作為衡量經(jīng)濟增長的代理變量。本文選取這個指標是基于技術(shù)進步的基礎,實體資本市場的增長、就業(yè)的增長、人才的增長、教育和健康的進步等等,最終都可以通過國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟總值的增長來表現(xiàn)。本文采用的線性回歸模型中,解釋變量為國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值,被解釋變量為中國對哈薩克斯坦能源行業(yè)的直接投資,同時引入石油價格以測試其中介效應。本文的數(shù)據(jù)處理軟件為Microsoft Excel。本文的第一個假設為中國直接投資與哈薩克斯坦國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值正相關。因此本文第一個模型及二者之間的線性方程�；貧w結(jié)果顯示,R方為0.152,方程F值為2.689,方程顯著性為0.122,中國直接投資的系數(shù)為正,但沒有通過顯著性檢驗。因此,本文得出結(jié)果,中國直接投資能夠積極影響哈薩克斯坦的經(jīng)濟增長。本文的第二個假設是,在中國直接投資和哈薩克斯坦國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的正向關系中,石油價格起到中介作用。本文首先估計石油價格與中國直接投資之間的關系,回歸結(jié)果顯示,R方為0.241,方程F值為4.755,方程顯著性為0.046,中國直接投資的系數(shù)為正,且通過了0.05水平下的顯著性檢驗。接下來,本文估計國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值和石油價格以及中國直接投資之間的關系,回歸結(jié)果顯示,R方為0.502,方程F值為7.061,方程顯著性為0.008,中國直接投資系數(shù)為正但沒有通過顯著性檢驗,石油價格系數(shù)為正且通過了0.01水平下的顯著性檢驗。本文還對石油價格、中國直接投資和國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的相關系數(shù)進行分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)沒有任何兩個變量之間的相關系數(shù)超過0.7,因此可以納入同一方程中進行回歸。本文的實證結(jié)果揭示了,中國直接投資對哈薩克斯坦國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值產(chǎn)生正向作用,并且石油價格在其中扮演了中介變量的角色。本文的兩個假設都得到支持。本文的結(jié)果再次肯定了哈薩克斯坦作為一個新興經(jīng)濟體的強大吸引力。這些境外投資最終會轉(zhuǎn)化為哈薩克斯坦的經(jīng)濟增長。境外投資的合理利用能夠幫助增加就業(yè)機會、引入新技術(shù)并最終加強國際的生產(chǎn)力。但在看到這些利好消息時,也應該注意到這些境外投資都是基于哈薩克斯坦的豐富能源。哈薩克斯坦擁有眾多石油公司,這些公司都在“掙快錢”。因此,哈薩克斯坦政府應當采用哪些能夠積極引導投資合理利用、能夠提升國家競爭力的政策。同時,政府應當同時將境外投資引流到制造業(yè)、農(nóng)業(yè)、旅游業(yè)和基礎設施等。
[Abstract]:This paper takes the energy industry as an example to study the impact of China's direct investment on Kazakhstan's economic growth. With the rapid development of China, the demand for imported fossil fuels is expanding. In order to ensure the supply of imported energy resources, the Chinese government supports state-owned oil companies to carry out their business overseas. Since 1997, China and Kazakhstan have started. A close relationship between political and economic cooperation has been established, and the overseas investment of Chinese state-owned oil companies is growing. This paper explores the interaction between China's state-owned oil companies and other energy companies. This paper shows that China's energy source investment in Kazakhstan contributes to the economic growth of Kazakhstan. Using the data of the Kazakhstan energy industry from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2016, this paper analyzes the relationship between oil prices, GDP and China's direct investment, and focuses on the role of oil prices in Kazakhstan's economy. This article finds that the price of oil is China's direct investment and Kazakhstan. The main result of this paper is that the price of oil has a positive impact on the GDP in the short term. The empirical analysis of this paper uses the regression model. The regression results show that China's direct investment is positively related to the economic growth. The findings of this paper also provide Kazakhstan's attraction for China's investment in Kazakhstan. The purpose of this article is: first, explore how the energy industry affects Kazakhstan's economic development; second, explore whether China's direct investment can affect the economic growth of Kazakhstan; third, how oil prices affect China's direct investment and how to affect Kazakhstan's economic growth; fourth, use regression. The model analyses the impact of China's direct investment on the energy industry in Kazakhstan. The energy management of a country is the lifeblood of economic development, and has a significant impact on the tension and capacity of the national economy. Therefore, the energy problem has become an important limiting factor for a country's economy, politics, democracy and military. Society, when judging a country's international economic competitiveness, its strategic control of energy is particularly important. With the growth of economic globalization, both Kazakhstan and China have entered a period of rapid growth. From the perspective of the development of China's industry, the connection with energy resources in Kazakhstan depends on the supply of Kazakhstan, especially in China. Therefore, the cooperation and strategic partnership between the two countries is based on the harmonious development of bilateral economy and society. Many Chinese enterprises have entered the energy industry in Kazakhstan and have created and excavated many high quality projects. This paper studies the impact of overseas investment on the economic development of Kazakhstan. In recent years, the government of Kazakhstan has strongly encouraged and supported investment in attracting investment and introduced the development of capital and energy industry to achieve economic recovery and prosperity. At the same time, some large companies from western developed countries have also entered the energy industry in Kazakhstan. China's capital investment to Kazakhstan is not only the subject of this. The attraction of the land investment environment is also under the pressure of the western investment competition. Based on this consideration, this paper explores the impact of China's direct investment on the economic development of Kazakhstan, and points out the intermediary role of the energy industry. Based on the related theories and literature of overseas investment, this paper puts forward the impact of China Direct Investment on kazakx. In recent years, economists generally believe that foreign direct investment can stimulate local economic development. In particular, foreign investment can create employment, bring technological innovation, and eventually have a macro positive impact on the local economic situation. In addition, foreign direct investment is also related to the industrial structure innovation of the host country. The domestic industry reform of the host country has optimized the local overall business atmosphere and promoted the local commercial competitiveness. As a new country, Kazakhstan is oriented by market relations, concentrating on the effective realization of industrial upgrading and investment policy, and finally realizing the economy. Rapid growth. The attraction and effective use of foreign investment is necessary, which is the common interest of Kazakhstan and other countries. In the past ten years, Kazakhstan's economy has grown rapidly, and the average annual growth rate exceeds the 10%.'s perfect answer. Oil and gas, as well as the mining industry, have made outstanding contributions. Foreign investment has also become an important factor in the development of Kazakhstan's country. Reference to investment sites, each country and region has provided considerable preferential policies to attract and adapt to various types of investment projects. In the modern economy, the most important raw material for oil. Oil products in chemical products manufacturing, transportation and energy generation. Since oil has become an important part of life and economy in the world, the relationship between roommates and macroeconomics has become increasingly prominent and expressed through oil prices. Economics has long paid attention to the evidence that can verify the relationship between oil prices and macroeconomic indicators. Kazakhstan is a major oil exporter, Hassa. Kstan's dependence on oil revenue increases the impact of its economy on the external changes in oil prices. Based on the above analysis, this paper constructs a regression model of China's gross domestic product (GDP) affecting Kazakhstan's direct investment with oil price as an intermediary variable. This paper puts forward two hypotheses: first, China's direct investment and kazakx. There is a positive relationship between China's gross domestic product (GDP); second, oil prices have an impact on the relationship between direct investment in China and the gross domestic product of Kazakhstan. The main contents of this article are as follows. The first chapter is an introduction, which mainly introduces the importance and necessity of the purpose of the topic, and discusses the foreign investment and its important influence. The material that shows the importance of the selected topic, and also points out the challenges that this article may encounter in the process of writing. The second chapter is the theoretical analysis of the impact of China's direct investment on the economy of the energy industry in Kazakhstan. This chapter reviews the main theories of overseas investment in Kazakhstan, especially in the energy industry, and specifically describes the Hassa. Based on this, this chapter analyzes the important role of the energy industry in the national economy, the milestone role of China's accession to the energy industry in Kazakhstan and the role of China in the process of the rise of Kazakhstan. The third chapter is the direct investment of China in the energy industry to the Kazakhstan Jing. This chapter constructs a retrospective model of China's direct investment in Kazakhstan's economic growth, and introduces the price of oil as an intermediary variable, and explains the review results. The fourth chapter is the result and discussion. This chapter summarizes the information of the whole paper, and puts forward some policy suggestions in order to make the article more structured. This paper mainly uses linear regression analysis. This paper uses GDP as the proxy variable to measure economic growth. This paper is based on the basis of technological progress, the growth of the real capital market, the increase of employment and the increase of talent. The length, education and health progress, and so on, can eventually be shown by the growth of GDP. In this paper, the linear regression model is interpreted as gross domestic product (GDP), which is interpreted as China's direct investment in the energy industry in Kazakhstan, while introducing the price of oil to test its intermediary effect. The first hypothesis that the processing software is Microsoft Excel. is that China's direct investment is positively related to the gross domestic product of Kazakhstan. Therefore, the first model and the linear equation between the two, the regression results show that the R square is 0.152, the equation F is 2.689, the equation is 0.122, the coefficient of China's direct investment is positive, but there is no The second hypothesis of this paper is that oil prices play an intermediary role in the positive relationship between China's direct investment and the gross domestic product of Kazakhstan. This paper first estimates the price of oil and the direct investment of China in Kazakhstan. The regression results show that the R square is 0.241, the equation F value is 4.755, the equation is 0.046, the coefficient of China's direct investment is positive, and the significant test under the 0.05 level is passed. Next, this article estimates the relationship between the gross domestic product and the oil price and the direct investment in China, and the regression results show that the R side is 0.502, The F value of the equation is 7.061, the equation is 0.008, the direct investment coefficient of China is positive but does not pass the significant test. The oil price coefficient is positive and passes the significant test under the 0.01 level. This paper also analyzes the correlation coefficient of oil price, China direct investment and GDP, and finds no two variables. The correlation coefficient is more than 0.7, so it can be included in the same equation. The empirical results show that China's direct investment has a positive effect on the GDP of Kazakhstan, and the price of oil plays the role of intermediary variable. The two hypotheses of this paper are all supported. The results of this paper will be renewed again. The strong attraction of Kazakhstan as an emerging economy will eventually translate into economic growth in Kazakhstan. The rational use of foreign investment can help to increase employment opportunities, introduce new technologies and eventually strengthen international productivity. But they should also notice these good news. Foreign investment is based on Kazakhstan's rich energy. Kazakhstan has a large number of oil companies, all of which are "making fast money". So, the government should adopt a policy that will actively guide the rational use of investment to enhance the competitiveness of the country. Meanwhile, the government should simultaneously drain the foreign investment to the Kazakhstan. Manufacturing, agriculture, tourism and infrastructure.
【學位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F125;F136.1

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6 遲文R，

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