發(fā)布時間：2018-05-06 16:10

  本文選題：創(chuàng)業(yè)板 + 風(fēng)險投資�。� 參考：《西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：在當(dāng)今社會,科技創(chuàng)新已經(jīng)成為衡量一個國家核心競爭力的重要標(biāo)志。隨著國際社會科技水平的提高和科技競爭的加劇,各國都在通過科技創(chuàng)新不斷提高自身的綜合國力。李克強(qiáng)總理在2016年的政府工作報告中明確指出要持續(xù)推動大眾創(chuàng)業(yè)、萬眾創(chuàng)新,促進(jìn)科技進(jìn)步對經(jīng)濟(jì)的推動作用。這無疑會推動我國科技創(chuàng)新事業(yè)的快速發(fā)展。風(fēng)險投資作為推動國家科技創(chuàng)新的重要力量之一,其在促進(jìn)我國中小型高新技術(shù)企業(yè)科技創(chuàng)新方面起著不可替代的作用。與傳統(tǒng)的投資方式不同,風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)更加注重被投資企業(yè)的科技水平和發(fā)展?jié)摿?風(fēng)險投資往往是在市場尚未注意到風(fēng)險企業(yè)時就已經(jīng)開始挖掘具有發(fā)展?jié)摿Φ钠髽I(yè),因此風(fēng)險投資的第一輪投資一般是在創(chuàng)新型企業(yè)的初創(chuàng)期完成的。就創(chuàng)新型的高新企業(yè)而言,公司的資產(chǎn)規(guī)模較小,而且都是向著輕資產(chǎn)企業(yè)的方向發(fā)展的,公司人員也都是以高新技術(shù)人才為主,內(nèi)部控制結(jié)構(gòu)比較單一,同時高新技術(shù)行業(yè)的更新?lián)Q代的速度很快,發(fā)展方向具有不確定性,這些因素造成了高新技術(shù)行業(yè)在所有的行業(yè)中是面臨風(fēng)險最大的行業(yè)。高新技術(shù)企業(yè)在初創(chuàng)期是難以通過銀行等傳統(tǒng)的融資渠道獲得資金支持的。所以風(fēng)險投資與高新技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)的結(jié)合是一種必然。雖然風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)進(jìn)行風(fēng)險投資的目的是攫取超額的投資收益,但不可否認(rèn)的是,風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)的投資對處于初創(chuàng)期的高新技術(shù)企業(yè)起著決定生死的作用。風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)擁有資金和渠道的優(yōu)勢,必要時能夠?yàn)轱L(fēng)險企業(yè)提供資金和業(yè)務(wù)上的支持,另外,風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)在公司治理與創(chuàng)業(yè)咨詢業(yè)務(wù)方面積累了豐富的經(jīng)驗(yàn),風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)可以為風(fēng)險企業(yè)的公司運(yùn)營以及發(fā)展方向提供建議支持。所以,從某種意義上說,引入風(fēng)險投資也是高新技術(shù)企業(yè)的需要。與其他的經(jīng)濟(jì)主體一樣,風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)進(jìn)行風(fēng)險投資的目的也是獲取投資收益。風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)會進(jìn)行獨(dú)立的理性投資,并根據(jù)自身的情況以及風(fēng)險企業(yè)的發(fā)展特點(diǎn)與經(jīng)營狀況決定風(fēng)險投資的投資額度以及投資的時間。與其他的投資主體不同的是,風(fēng)險投資必須要承擔(dān)超高的投資風(fēng)險,這就決定了風(fēng)險投資有其獨(dú)特的運(yùn)作方式。風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)會在風(fēng)險企業(yè)的初創(chuàng)期進(jìn)入并伴隨風(fēng)險企業(yè)的成長。但是風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)不會一直停留在風(fēng)險企業(yè),風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)會在恰當(dāng)?shù)臅r間以恰當(dāng)?shù)姆绞酵顺�。風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)的投資收益也是通過最終退出實(shí)現(xiàn)的。經(jīng)驗(yàn)表明,風(fēng)險投資自進(jìn)入風(fēng)險企業(yè)到最終的退出,整個過程大約需要5-7年的時間才能完成。一般地,風(fēng)險投資的退出方式有四種：回購、清算、協(xié)議轉(zhuǎn)讓和IPO。在以上的四種退出方式中,IPO是最理想的退出方式。第一,風(fēng)險企業(yè)通過IPO后成為上市公司,資本市場能夠?qū)︼L(fēng)險企業(yè)價值正確定價并真實(shí)的反映在公司的股價上。第二,IPO后投資者會對風(fēng)險企業(yè)有一種預(yù)期,這種預(yù)期也會反映在風(fēng)險企業(yè)的股價上。當(dāng)風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)出售所持有的股份時,這部分價值就轉(zhuǎn)變成風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)的投資收益。第三,風(fēng)險企業(yè)IPO后成為公眾公司,風(fēng)險企業(yè)將會面對眾多的投資者,風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)決定股份協(xié)議轉(zhuǎn)讓或公開出售時可以更容易的找到交易對手,并在交易的過程中占據(jù)主動的地位,這極大的提高了風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)的退出效率。最后,風(fēng)險企業(yè)成為公眾公司之后,公司股份的流動性大大增加,風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)無論是出售還是回售給風(fēng)險企業(yè),交易成本會降低。從風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)的角度來看,風(fēng)險投資是一個從投入到退出再投入的不斷循環(huán)的過程。風(fēng)險投資的退出是承接風(fēng)險投資循環(huán)的重要節(jié)點(diǎn),因此風(fēng)險投資能否成功退出對風(fēng)險資本的循環(huán)來說起著決定性作用。風(fēng)險投資的退出最關(guān)鍵的兩個因素是風(fēng)險投資的退出方式和風(fēng)險投資的退出時機(jī),其中風(fēng)險投資退出時機(jī)的選擇尤為重要,它影響著風(fēng)險投資的最終受益。從風(fēng)險企業(yè)的角度看,當(dāng)風(fēng)險投資退出后,風(fēng)險企業(yè)很難從風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)繼續(xù)獲得資金支持,而必須依靠自身去經(jīng)營發(fā)展。理論研究表明,風(fēng)險投資退出后風(fēng)險企業(yè)的股價往往會劇烈下挫,這對投資者和風(fēng)險企業(yè)來說都是不利的。所以準(zhǔn)確把握風(fēng)險投資退出時機(jī)對風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)與風(fēng)險企業(yè)都是十份重要的。本文建立在風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)可以自主決定風(fēng)險資本從風(fēng)險企業(yè)的退出時機(jī)的假設(shè)上,對我國的風(fēng)險投資退出時機(jī)進(jìn)行了分析研究,并以我國的創(chuàng)業(yè)板市場為研究對象進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。本文共分五個章節(jié)：第一章緒論。本部分首先介紹了我國風(fēng)險投資的研究背景,并提出了風(fēng)險投資退出時機(jī)的研究論題以及本文的研究意義。第二章主要介紹了風(fēng)險投資和風(fēng)險投資退出的含義、風(fēng)險投資退出的原因和退出意義,同時簡要描述了相關(guān)的理論基礎(chǔ),并介紹了國內(nèi)外對風(fēng)險投資退出時機(jī)的研究現(xiàn)狀以及不同學(xué)者的研究結(jié)論,并就各位學(xué)者的研究特點(diǎn)與不足進(jìn)行了簡單的評述。在第三章中,本文介紹了風(fēng)險投資退出的確定以及樣本的選取,并在此基礎(chǔ)上建立了本文的研究的模型。本部分引入了生存分析的理論模型,介紹了生存分析的基本原理、加速失效生存分析模型、貝葉斯生存分析的基本思想以及Cox比例危險率模型,并就各個模型的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)進(jìn)行了簡單的分析。第四章實(shí)證分析部分,此部分是本文的重點(diǎn)。在本部分中,本文通過實(shí)證分析確定了影響我國風(fēng)險投資退出時機(jī)的因素,并就各個因素對風(fēng)險投資退出時機(jī)的影響做了相應(yīng)的闡述。本文的最后一部分是結(jié)論部分,總結(jié)了本文的研究結(jié)論和不足點(diǎn),并指出了未來的發(fā)展方向。通過理論分析與實(shí)證研究,本文發(fā)現(xiàn)：(1)風(fēng)險企業(yè)的長期償債能力有利于風(fēng)險企業(yè)繼續(xù)持有風(fēng)險企業(yè)的股份,風(fēng)險企業(yè)的短期償債能力增強(qiáng),則會促進(jìn)風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)的退出。本文認(rèn)為風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)更加關(guān)注風(fēng)險企業(yè)所處的發(fā)展階段,而短期償債能力強(qiáng)表明了風(fēng)險企業(yè)已經(jīng)發(fā)展到了一個相對較為成熟的時期,風(fēng)險企業(yè)的已經(jīng)不能保持在高速發(fā)展時期的發(fā)展速度,風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)會選擇退出。(2)風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)會根據(jù)風(fēng)險企業(yè)的營運(yùn)能力和盈利能力選擇恰當(dāng)?shù)耐顺鰰r機(jī)。當(dāng)風(fēng)險企業(yè)的營運(yùn)能力以及盈利能力提高時,風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)會選擇在更晚的時機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)讓所持有的股份。這是因?yàn)轱L(fēng)險企業(yè)的營運(yùn)能力與盈利提高時,風(fēng)險企業(yè)能夠通過自身的經(jīng)營獲取較高的經(jīng)營利潤,公司的股價會上漲,這能夠?yàn)楣镜墓蓶|帶來較高的投資回報。(3)風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)會關(guān)注風(fēng)險資本的投資收益情況,這在二級市場上主要表現(xiàn)為股價的變動。當(dāng)股價上漲時,風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)會為了繼續(xù)賺取超額的投資收益而持有風(fēng)險企業(yè)的股份；反之,當(dāng)股票價格下降時,風(fēng)險企業(yè)會選擇退出。(4)當(dāng)風(fēng)險企業(yè)過多的應(yīng)用負(fù)債和增加財務(wù)杠桿時,風(fēng)險資本會選擇退出。這是因?yàn)?風(fēng)險企業(yè)成為公眾公司后,其融資水平有了非常大的提高,風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)持有的風(fēng)險企業(yè)的股份所面臨的風(fēng)險已經(jīng)下降到一個較低的水平。這時風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)更加希望風(fēng)險企業(yè)降低杠桿,保證財務(wù)狀況的穩(wěn)定。風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)這樣做的原因主要有三個：第一,在風(fēng)險企業(yè)籌集股權(quán)資本的過程中,風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)可以與其他的股東或機(jī)構(gòu)進(jìn)行協(xié)商,將其持有的股份轉(zhuǎn)讓,實(shí)現(xiàn)風(fēng)險資本的退出；第二,當(dāng)風(fēng)險企業(yè)的財務(wù)杠桿處于較低的狀態(tài)時,風(fēng)險企業(yè)更容易引入股權(quán)投資者,風(fēng)險資本可以更容易的退出；第三,風(fēng)險企業(yè)實(shí)現(xiàn)公開發(fā)行之后,風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)可能更加注重投入資本的安全性,因此風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)不希望風(fēng)險企業(yè)提高財務(wù)杠桿,不愿意承擔(dān)較高的財務(wù)風(fēng)險。本文在研究過程中主要存在以下的不足之處：風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)通過多次在二級市場進(jìn)行股份的出售,到最終完成出售時其持有的股份較少,因此風(fēng)險投資企業(yè)完成風(fēng)險資本退出時,其信息披露也需要到季度末才能在公司的財務(wù)報告中反應(yīng)出來,所以在確定風(fēng)險投資完成資本退出的時點(diǎn)時,是對風(fēng)險企業(yè)的在一段時間的數(shù)據(jù)估計的風(fēng)險企業(yè)的具體股東情況與經(jīng)營狀況,這其中有一定的時滯的。盡管本文對風(fēng)險企業(yè)的股價研究過程中是進(jìn)行復(fù)權(quán)處理的,但本文尚沒有考慮風(fēng)險企業(yè)的股票分紅對風(fēng)險投資退出時機(jī)的影響。這可能是以后研究的發(fā)展方向。
[Abstract]:In today's society, scientific and technological innovation has become an important symbol to measure the core competitiveness of a country. With the improvement of the level of science and technology in the international community and the intensification of scientific and technological competition, all countries are constantly improving their comprehensive national strength through scientific and technological innovation. In the 2016 government work report, Premier Li Keqiang clearly pointed out that the public should continue to promote the public. It will undoubtedly promote the rapid development of scientific and technological innovation in China. As one of the important forces to promote national scientific and technological innovation, venture capital plays an irreplaceable role in promoting scientific and technological innovation of small and medium high-tech enterprises in China. The venture capital enterprises pay more attention to the scientific and technological level and development potential of the invested enterprises. Venture investment often begins to excavate the potential enterprises when the market has not yet paid attention to the venture enterprises. Therefore, the first round of venture investment is generally completed at the initial stage of the innovative enterprise. In terms of the new enterprise, the company's assets are small, and all are towards the direction of the light asset enterprises. The company personnel are mainly high and new technology talents, and the internal control structure is relatively simple. At the same time, the new and high technology industry has a fast speed and the development direction is uncertain. These factors have caused the high and new technology line. Industry is the most risky industry in all industries. High and new technology enterprises are difficult to obtain funds through traditional financing channels such as banks. Therefore, the combination of venture capital and high-tech industry is a necessity. However, it is undeniable that the investment of venture capital enterprises plays a decisive role in the new and high technology enterprises at the initial stage. The venture capital enterprises have the advantages of funds and channels, and can provide funds and business support for the venture enterprises when necessary. In addition, the venture investment enterprises are in the area of corporate governance and business consulting business. With rich experience, venture capital enterprises can provide advice and support for the company operation and development direction of venture enterprises. Therefore, in a sense, the introduction of venture capital is also the need of high and new technology enterprises. Like other economic entities, venture investment enterprises' goal of entering venture capital is also to obtain investment returns. The risk investment enterprise will carry on the independent rational investment, and determine the amount of investment and the time of investment according to its own situation, the development characteristics and the operation condition of the venture enterprise. Unlike other investment subjects, the venture capital must bear the super high investment risk, which determines that the venture capital has its unique characteristics. The venture capital enterprise will enter the venture enterprise and grow with the risk enterprise. But the venture capital enterprise will not stay in the risk enterprise, the venture capital enterprise will withdraw in the right way in the appropriate time. The investment benefit of the venture capital enterprise is also realized through the final withdrawal. In general, there are four ways to withdraw from venture capital: repurchase, liquidation, agreement transfer and IPO. in the above four ways of withdrawal, IPO is the ideal exit mode. First, venture enterprises are listed on the market after IPO. A company, the capital market can correctly price the value of the venture's value and truly reflect the stock price of the company. Second, after IPO, the investor will have a kind of expectation to the venture enterprise. This expectation is also reflected in the stock price of the venture enterprise. When the venture capital enterprise sells the shares held by the venture, this part of the value will be transformed into the venture capital enterprise. The investment income of the industry. Third, after the venture enterprise IPO becomes a public company, the venture enterprise will face many investors. The venture capital enterprise can find the trading opponent more easily when it decides the transfer or sale of the stock agreement, and occupy the active place in the process of the transaction, which greatly improves the withdrawal of the venture capital enterprise. In the end, after the venture enterprise becomes a public company, the liquidity of the company is greatly increased. The cost of the venture capital enterprise will be reduced, whether it is selling or selling back to the venture enterprise. From the point of view of venture capital enterprises, venture investment is a continuous cycle process from investment to return and reinvestment. It is an important node to undertake the cycle of venture capital, so the successful withdrawal of venture capital will play a decisive role in the circulation of venture capital. The two key factors for the withdrawal of venture investment are the exit mode of venture investment and the exit opportunity of venture investment, in which the choice of exit time of venture capital investment is particularly important. From the perspective of venture enterprises, it is difficult for venture enterprises to continue to obtain capital support from venture capital enterprises, but they must rely on themselves to manage and develop. It is unfavourable to the industry. Therefore, it is important for both venture capital enterprises and venture enterprises to accurately grasp the exit opportunity of venture investment. This article is based on the hypothesis that venture capital enterprises can decide the exit opportunity of venture capital from risk enterprises independently and analyze the exit opportunity of venture capital investment in China. This article is divided into five chapters: the first chapter is introduction. This part first introduces the research background of China's venture investment, and puts forward the research topic of the opportunity of venture capital investment and the significance of this paper. The second chapter mainly introduces the withdrawal of venture capital and venture capital. The meaning, the reasons for the withdrawal of venture capital and the meaning of withdrawal, and briefly describe the relevant theoretical basis, and introduce the research status of the exit opportunity of venture capital and the conclusions of different scholars' research at home and abroad, and make a brief comment on the characteristics and shortcomings of the scholars' research. In the third chapter, this paper introduces the risk investment. This part introduces the theory model of survival analysis, introduces the basic principles of survival analysis, accelerates the failure survival analysis model, the basic idea of Bayesian survival analysis, and the Cox proportional hazard rate model, and the advantages of each model. The fourth chapter is an empirical analysis. This part is the key point of this article. In this part, the factors that affect the exit time of venture capital in China are determined by empirical analysis, and the impact of each factor on the exit time of venture investment is explained. The last part of this paper is the conclusion part, The conclusions and shortcomings of this paper are summarized, and the future development direction is pointed out. Through theoretical analysis and empirical research, this paper finds that: (1) the long-term solvency of risk enterprises is beneficial to risk enterprises to continue to hold shares in venture enterprises, and to enhance the short-term debt repayment ability of venture enterprises, it will promote the withdrawal of venture capital enterprises. This paper holds that venture capital enterprises pay more attention to the development stage of risk enterprises, and the short-term debt repayment ability indicates that the venture enterprise has developed to a relatively mature period. The venture enterprise can not maintain the speed of development at the high speed of development. The venture capital enterprises will choose to withdraw. (2) venture capital enterprises When the operating ability and profitability of risk enterprises are improved, venture capital enterprises will choose to transfer their shares at a more late time. This is because the venture enterprise can pass its own capacity and profitability. In order to obtain higher operating profit, the stock price of the company will rise, which can bring a higher return on the investment of the company's shareholders. (3) the venture capital enterprise will pay attention to the investment income of venture capital, which is mainly manifested in the change of the stock price in the two level market. On the contrary, when the stock price falls, the venture enterprise will choose to withdraw. (4) when the risk enterprise is too many applied liabilities and increase the financial leverage, the venture capital will choose to exit. This is because the risk enterprise becomes a public company, its financing level has been greatly improved, the venture investment enterprise The risk of the risk enterprises held by the industry has fallen to a lower level. At this time, venture capital enterprises are more willing to reduce the leverage and guarantee the stability of the financial situation. There are three main reasons for the venture capital enterprises to do so: first, venture capital enterprises in the process of raising equity capital in the venture enterprises The industry can negotiate with other shareholders or institutions to transfer the shares held by the company and realize the withdrawal of the venture capital. Second, when the financial leverage of the venture enterprise is in a low state, the venture enterprise is easier to introduce the equity investors, and the venture capital can be more easily withdrawn; and third, after the venture enterprise realizes public issue, the wind is in the wind. Risk investment enterprises may pay more attention to the security of capital investment, so venture capital enterprises do not want risk enterprises to raise financial leverage and do not want to bear higher financial risks. This paper mainly has the following shortcomings in the study process: venture investment enterprises sell shares in the two level market by many times and end up to the end. When the venture capital enterprise completes the venture capital withdrawal, the disclosure of its information also needs to be reacted to the company's financial report at the end of the quarter, so when the venture capital is determined to complete the withdrawal of the capital, it is the risk enterprise that estimates the risk enterprise for a period of time. There are some time delays in the situation of the specific shareholders and the operating conditions. Although this paper is to deal with the stock price in the venture enterprise, this paper does not consider the impact of the stock dividend on the opportunity of venture capital exit. This may be the development direction of the future research.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F832.48

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