本文選題：戰(zhàn)略風(fēng)險(xiǎn) + 企業(yè)績效��； 參考：《中國科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化趨勢的不斷加強(qiáng),我國企業(yè)所處的外部經(jīng)營環(huán)境變得更加復(fù)雜多變,企業(yè)內(nèi)部的不確定性因素也日益增多。企業(yè)具有的內(nèi)外部不確定性因素導(dǎo)致企業(yè)在戰(zhàn)略實(shí)施過程中容易遭受多重風(fēng)險(xiǎn),無法實(shí)現(xiàn)其戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo),甚至導(dǎo)致企業(yè)在戰(zhàn)略管理和實(shí)施過程中遭受了滅頂之災(zāi)。全球權(quán)威的咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)德勤在1999年的一項(xiàng)研究中發(fā)現(xiàn)企業(yè)面臨的最大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之一就是戰(zhàn)略風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。所以戰(zhàn)略風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問題即企業(yè)組織層次的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)日益受到實(shí)業(yè)界和學(xué)術(shù)界的高度關(guān)注。其中,戰(zhàn)略風(fēng)險(xiǎn)-收益關(guān)系問題成為關(guān)注焦點(diǎn)之一。一直以來,傳統(tǒng)的金融理論等均認(rèn)為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和收益之間是正相關(guān)的,即所謂的“高風(fēng)險(xiǎn),高收益”。直至Bowman(1980)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)的“鮑曼悖論”現(xiàn)象,人們才對(duì)傳統(tǒng)假定的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)-收益的正相關(guān)關(guān)系產(chǎn)生了質(zhì)疑并展開了大量的后續(xù)研究。基于此,本文以我國上市企業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)-收益關(guān)系為研究對(duì)象,研究了多個(gè)行業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)-收益關(guān)系及企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的決定因素。 首先,在回顧與總結(jié)以往研究的基礎(chǔ)上,本研究根據(jù)公司行為理論建立了個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模型,選取我國12個(gè)行業(yè)共629家上市公司作為研究樣本。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模型中關(guān)鍵變量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的度量采用先進(jìn)的事前度量法。 然后,運(yùn)用SPSS17.0軟件對(duì)研究模型進(jìn)行了描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)分析和多元回歸分析,得出了以下幾個(gè)重要結(jié)論：(1)企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)-收益關(guān)系與行業(yè)性質(zhì)密切相關(guān)。在自由競爭程度高的行業(yè)(例如本研究中序號(hào)為1-6的行業(yè))中,企業(yè)績效Performance t對(duì)企業(yè)未來風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Risk t+i存在顯著的負(fù)向影響。也就是說,這些行業(yè)存在“鮑曼悖論”現(xiàn)象即企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)-收益關(guān)系是負(fù)相關(guān)的；相反地,在壟斷程度較高的行業(yè)(例如本研究中序號(hào)為7-12的行業(yè))中,企業(yè)績效Performance t對(duì)企業(yè)未來風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Risk t+i存在顯著的正向影響。也就是說,這些行業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)-收益關(guān)系是正相關(guān)的。(2)本研究模型中的各變量對(duì)企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)都存在一定的正向或負(fù)向影響,而且在不同的行業(yè)中同一變量對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響是不一樣的。例如,在自由競爭程度較高的行業(yè)中,企業(yè)績效Performance t對(duì)企業(yè)未來風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Risk t+i存在顯著的負(fù)向影響；相反地,在壟斷程度較高的行業(yè),企業(yè)績效Performance t對(duì)企業(yè)未來風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Risk t+i存在顯著的正向影響。(3)我國一些行業(yè)確實(shí)存在“鮑曼悖論”現(xiàn)象,但西方對(duì)“鮑曼悖論”現(xiàn)象的公司行為理論解釋不完全適用于中國,需要結(jié)合中國的特殊國情和行業(yè)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r等來具體分析和解釋。 最后,根據(jù)研究結(jié)論得出了相關(guān)啟示,并對(duì)企業(yè)、政府和其他投資者都提出了建議,同時(shí)在探討研究局限的基礎(chǔ)上,展望了后續(xù)的研究方向。
[Abstract]:With the increasing trend of global economic integration, the external operating environment of Chinese enterprises has become more complex and changeable, and the uncertainty factors within enterprises are also increasing day by day. Because of the internal and external uncertainty factors, enterprises are vulnerable to multiple risks in the process of strategic implementation, unable to achieve their strategic objectives, and even destroyed in the process of strategic management and implementation. Deloitte, a global consultancy, found in a 1999 study that one of the biggest risks companies face is strategic risk. Therefore, the strategic risk, that is, the risk of enterprise organization level, is paid more and more attention by the industry and academic circles. Among them, the strategic risk-benefit relationship has become one of the focus. All along, the traditional financial theory thinks that risk and return are positively related, that is, "high risk, high return". It was not until Bowman's 1980) that Bowman's paradox was discovered that people questioned the traditional assumption of the positive correlation between risk and return and carried out a large number of follow-up studies. Based on this, this paper takes the risk-to-profit relationship of listed enterprises in China as the research object, studies the risk-to-profit relationship in many industries and the determinants of the strategic risks of enterprises. First of all, on the basis of reviewing and summarizing the previous studies, this study establishes a risk model according to the theory of corporate behavior, and selects 629 listed companies in 12 industries of our country as the research samples. The risk measurement of key variables in risk model adopts advanced prior measure method. Then, using SPSS17.0 software, the paper makes descriptive statistical analysis and multiple regression analysis to the research model, and draws the following important conclusions: 1) the relationship between enterprise risk and income is closely related to the nature of the industry. In industries with high degree of free competition (such as those with serial numbers of 1-6 in this study), firm performance (Performance t) has a significant negative effect on the future risk of the firm (Risk t I). In other words, there is a "Bowman paradox" in these industries, that is, the risk-return relationship is negatively correlated; on the contrary, in industries with a high degree of monopoly (for example, those with serial numbers of 7-12 in this study), Enterprise performance Performance t has significant positive influence on future risk Risk t I. That is to say, the risk-return relationship of these industries is positively related. 2) the variables in this research model have a certain positive or negative impact on enterprise risk, and the same variable has different effects on risk in different industries. For example, in industries with higher degree of free competition, the firm performance Performance t has a significant negative effect on the future risk of the enterprise Risk t I; on the contrary, in the industry with higher degree of monopoly, Enterprise performance Performance t has a significant positive impact on the future risk Risk t i of enterprises. (3) in some industries in China, there is a "Bowman Paradox" phenomenon, but the western explanation of the phenomenon of "Bowman Paradox" is not fully applicable in China. Need to be combined with China's special national conditions and industry development to specific analysis and interpretation. Finally, based on the conclusions of the study, the author draws some suggestions to the enterprises, the government and other investors. At the same time, on the basis of discussing the limitations of the research, the future research direction is prospected.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51;F272.3;F275

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