發(fā)布時間：2018-04-21 22:14

  本文選題：農(nóng)戶小額信貸 + 農(nóng)戶小額信貸的需求和供給��； 參考：《西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：目前國內(nèi)外關(guān)于小額信貸可持續(xù)發(fā)展的研究不少,但多是從供給的角度考慮問題,即通過提高利率等辦法以覆蓋成本的角度,而對如何降低交易成本以促進(jìn)需求,從而達(dá)到可持續(xù)發(fā)展方面鮮有研究。農(nóng)戶小額信貸值得討論的問題很多,本論文則重點探討當(dāng)前中國農(nóng)戶小額信貸的三個問題,一是農(nóng)戶小額信貸的貸款利率問題,包括農(nóng)戶可承受的最高貸款利率和小額信貸機(jī)構(gòu)可承受的最低貸款利率兩個方面,二是為防范小額信貸風(fēng)險和降低交易成本加強(qiáng)農(nóng)村征信體系建設(shè)問題,三是中國農(nóng)戶小額信貸可持續(xù)發(fā)展的有效模式選擇問題。通過這些研究,最終目的是一方面求得中國農(nóng)戶的脫貧致富,另一方面則是小額信貸機(jī)構(gòu)的健康與可持續(xù)發(fā)展。 中國作為世界上最大的發(fā)展中國家,60%左右的人口生活在農(nóng)村地區(qū),農(nóng)業(yè)、農(nóng)村和農(nóng)民問題始終是關(guān)系國民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和現(xiàn)代化建設(shè)的重大問題。黨的“十七大”、“十八大”報告都明確指出：“解決好農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村農(nóng)民問題是全黨工作重中之重�！碧岣咿r(nóng)民收入則是徹底解決“三農(nóng)”問題的核心。 改革開放以來,中國的農(nóng)戶小額信貸從開始的各地試點到現(xiàn)在的全面推廣,在解決農(nóng)戶貸款難問題,促進(jìn)農(nóng)民增收,支持農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,建設(shè)社會主義新農(nóng)村中發(fā)揮了積極的作用。實踐證明,小額信貸可以為“三農(nóng)”發(fā)展提供有效的金融支持,提高農(nóng)民收入,特別是幫助低收入農(nóng)民改善生活狀況,有利于和諧小康社會的建設(shè)。 但我們也注意到,中國農(nóng)戶小額信貸的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r仍然難以滿足農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的要求,農(nóng)戶“貸款難”問題并沒有根本改變,對于所存在的問題還需要我們?nèi)シ治�、研究和解決。從需求角度看,農(nóng)戶對金融的需求是多種多樣的,從滿足需求的難易程度角度分析,貸款需求是首要的需求。就供給而言,盡管在中國已經(jīng)初步形成了一種小額信貸供給機(jī)構(gòu)多元化和供給渠道多樣化局面,但是,供給總量有限,信貸滿足率較低,小額信貸服務(wù)仍然極不充分。小額信貸的供給與需求存在的問題影響到小額信貸可持續(xù)發(fā)展。因此對這些問題應(yīng)該加以分析、研究和解決。 具體地說：(1)在中國有大量的、潛在的有信貸需求的農(nóng)戶,但有效信貸需求不足,即大量存在的或潛在的信貸需求不能成為有效需求。而影響農(nóng)戶信貸需求意愿的外生限制條件主要有貸款利率、貸款期限、貸款類型等。其中貸款利率作為價格信號對農(nóng)戶小額信貸活動的規(guī)模、形式與作用的影響,在過去的研究與輿論中,往往被低估了。此外,農(nóng)戶信貸需求對貸款類型亦高度敏感,現(xiàn)行以抵押、擔(dān)保為主的貸款模式并不適合農(nóng)戶信貸。(2)小額信貸交易成本高,成為很多專家學(xué)者提出以高利率來維持小額信貸可持續(xù)觀點的理由,但經(jīng)過本文的實證研究認(rèn)為,由于在現(xiàn)有的農(nóng)村收入水平條件下盈虧平衡利率遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出了農(nóng)戶的可承受能力,從而影響了小額信貸的發(fā)展,因此從根本上降低交易成本才是農(nóng)村小額信貸持續(xù)發(fā)展的根本出路。(3)農(nóng)村征信體系建設(shè)的滯后制約了農(nóng)戶小額信貸的發(fā)展,建立標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化的農(nóng)戶征信管理系統(tǒng)可有效解決信息不對稱問題,從而降低農(nóng)戶小額信貸交易成本(主要是經(jīng)營成本和風(fēng)險成本),使小額信貸在放貸機(jī)構(gòu)和農(nóng)戶均可承受的利率之下實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展,達(dá)到小額信貸機(jī)構(gòu)和農(nóng)戶“雙贏”的根本目的。(4)從中國小額信貸發(fā)展模式說,中國農(nóng)戶小額信貸的發(fā)展不能盲目照搬某個國家現(xiàn)成的成功經(jīng)驗,而是必須走自己的道路,設(shè)計適合中國市場經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展現(xiàn)行階段要求的小額信貸有效模式,即中國農(nóng)戶小額信貸總體發(fā)展模式的現(xiàn)實選擇是準(zhǔn)公益性制度主義,也就是在公益性制度主義的基礎(chǔ)上,加上必要的政策扶持,是一種界于福利主義和商業(yè)性制度主義之間的、準(zhǔn)市場化的小額信貸模式。(5)從中國小額信貸運行機(jī)制說,針對中國農(nóng)戶小額信貸目前存在的機(jī)構(gòu)網(wǎng)點偏少、資金來源不足、貸款面窄、經(jīng)營成本和風(fēng)險高、保障和扶持不足、監(jiān)管不到位等問題,應(yīng)構(gòu)建一種“多元化組織體系+多渠道資金來源+農(nóng)戶征信體系+利率適中的小額信貸+信貸保險+政策扶持+審慎監(jiān)管”的中國農(nóng)戶小額信貸運行機(jī)制。 全文共八章,結(jié)構(gòu)安排和主要內(nèi)容如下： 第一章是導(dǎo)論。主要闡述本文的研究背景、意義、研究思路和邏輯、主要研究方法、可能的創(chuàng)新點和不足。 第二章是理論綜述和研究回顧。主要明確農(nóng)戶小額信貸的涵義,簡介農(nóng)戶小額信貸相關(guān)理論依據(jù),同時綜述國內(nèi)外關(guān)于小額信貸的研究現(xiàn)狀。 第三章是國外小額信貸實踐及啟示。主要回顧國外小額信貸發(fā)展史、發(fā)展模式及發(fā)展趨勢,總結(jié)經(jīng)驗,吸取教訓(xùn),給中國小額信貸更好發(fā)展以借鑒。國外小額信貸實踐經(jīng)驗體現(xiàn)在以下幾點：小額信貸應(yīng)擴(kuò)大到盡量多的中低收入群體,且一定要注重風(fēng)險控制；小額信貸利率的確定既要考慮機(jī)構(gòu)的財務(wù)可持續(xù)性,亦要考慮客戶的可承受性；小額信貸的發(fā)展要循序漸進(jìn),且對小額信貸的監(jiān)管必不可少；政府的金融政策和國家的金融改革對小額信貸的發(fā)展十分重要,必要的扶持不可少。 第四章是中國農(nóng)戶小額信貸發(fā)展歷程、現(xiàn)狀及問題。主要回顧改革開放以來中國小額信貸發(fā)展歷程,分析現(xiàn)狀特點、存在問題及原因,評估其成效。得出以下基本觀點：中國的農(nóng)戶小額信貸從開始引進(jìn)到現(xiàn)在的全面試行推廣,有了長足的發(fā)展,一定程度上解決了農(nóng)戶發(fā)展的金融需求；農(nóng)戶小額信貸在資金來源、風(fēng)險防范、利率、政策扶持和監(jiān)管等方面仍存在諸多問題,嚴(yán)重制約了其發(fā)展,金融機(jī)構(gòu)不能貸、不敢貸、不愿貸,農(nóng)戶無法貸現(xiàn)象仍很突出。 第五章是中國農(nóng)戶信貸需求實證分析。本章立足農(nóng)戶視角,通過對廣東省茂名市農(nóng)戶借貸情況的調(diào)查,對農(nóng)戶的經(jīng)濟(jì)行為和信貸需求特征進(jìn)行分析,并使用Probit模型和Tobit模型對農(nóng)戶信貸需求與來自放貸機(jī)構(gòu)的外生限制條件的關(guān)系進(jìn)行分析,分別運用問卷調(diào)查法和收支平衡法測算了農(nóng)戶信貸利率承受能力。實證結(jié)果表明：中國農(nóng)戶信貸需求旺盛,但有效需求不足,主要受貸款利率過高、抵押擔(dān)保條件和期限過短的影響。 第六章是中國農(nóng)戶小額信貸供給實證分析。本章立足小額信貸機(jī)構(gòu)視角,利用對廣東省茂名市農(nóng)村信用社的調(diào)查統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù),首先介紹農(nóng)戶小額信貸供給現(xiàn)狀及與農(nóng)戶信貸需求的匹配情況,并分析農(nóng)戶小額信貸的財務(wù)收入和交易成本,進(jìn)而運用盈虧平衡利率模型測算小額信貸機(jī)構(gòu)可承受最低貸款利率,并通過對盈虧平衡利率與實際執(zhí)行利率、農(nóng)戶心理承受利率進(jìn)行比較,分析影響農(nóng)戶小額信貸利率的各種因素。實證結(jié)果表明：農(nóng)村信用社農(nóng)戶小額信貸供給與農(nóng)戶信貸需求存在不匹配；農(nóng)戶小額信貸在目前的現(xiàn)狀下要達(dá)到可持續(xù),需要的盈虧平衡利率極高,大大超出了農(nóng)戶的承受能力；造成利率偏高的核心原因是信息不對稱引起的信貸營運成本率和信貸風(fēng)險成本率偏高問題。 第七章是農(nóng)村征信體系建設(shè)與農(nóng)戶小額信貸的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。本章通過回顧國內(nèi)外農(nóng)村征信體系建設(shè)研究和實踐,分析存在問題,提出建設(shè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化的農(nóng)戶征信管理系統(tǒng)的觀點和設(shè)計框架,并以廣東省茂名市為例實證分析農(nóng)戶征信管理系統(tǒng)的作用。得出以下結(jié)論：農(nóng)村征信體系建設(shè)滯后制約了農(nóng)戶小額信貸的發(fā)展；建立標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化的農(nóng)戶征信管理系統(tǒng)可有效解決信息不對稱問題,從而降低農(nóng)戶小額信貸交易成本,使小額信貸在放貸機(jī)構(gòu)和農(nóng)戶雙方均可承受的利率之下實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展,達(dá)到小額信貸機(jī)構(gòu)和農(nóng)戶“雙贏”的根本目的。 第八章是中國農(nóng)戶小額信貸有效模式選擇。主要提出構(gòu)建有中國特色的農(nóng)戶小額信貸模式的設(shè)想。主要觀點包括：(1)在總體思路上提出建立一種能同時實現(xiàn)農(nóng)戶脫貧致富和小額信貸機(jī)構(gòu)生存發(fā)展的可持續(xù)“雙贏”目標(biāo)的有效模式的觀點。(2)在基本原則上提出“廣覆蓋、普受惠”、“有償性、可持續(xù)”、“低成本、共發(fā)展”、“重激勵、有保障”、“強(qiáng)監(jiān)管、保穩(wěn)健”等觀點。(3)在發(fā)展模式上提出選擇一種界于福利主義和商業(yè)性制度主義之間的、準(zhǔn)市場化和準(zhǔn)公益性的制度主義小額信貸模式。(4)在運行模式上提出“多元化組織體系+多渠道資金來源+農(nóng)戶征信體系+利率適中的小額信貸+信貸保險+政策扶持+審慎監(jiān)管”。(5)在運行機(jī)制上分述了農(nóng)戶小額信貸市場準(zhǔn)入及監(jiān)管、貸款運作、市場保障等各個環(huán)節(jié)的具體操作模式。 本文可能的創(chuàng)新點有：(1)運用計量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方法,利用本論文作者直接或參與調(diào)查的廣東省茂名市農(nóng)戶和農(nóng)村信用社的數(shù)據(jù),較為系統(tǒng)地分析了農(nóng)村小額信貸需求方可承受的最高利率和供給方可接受的最低貸款利率問題,得出現(xiàn)行中國農(nóng)戶小額信貸實際執(zhí)行利率高于農(nóng)戶預(yù)期,而低于小額信貸機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)期,因而應(yīng)該探尋農(nóng)戶小額信貸供需雙方可接受的合理的均衡利率區(qū)間的結(jié)論,從而既不同意目前比較流行的農(nóng)戶可承受貸款高利率的觀點,也不同意小額信貸機(jī)構(gòu)能夠在貸款低利率下實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)的觀點。(2)將本論文作者參與創(chuàng)建的廣東省茂名市標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化農(nóng)戶征信管理系統(tǒng)引入農(nóng)戶小額信貸研究中,以求更有效解決農(nóng)戶小額信貸信息不對稱問題,從而降低小額信貸的營運成本和風(fēng)險成本,實現(xiàn)我國農(nóng)戶小額信貸的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。該系統(tǒng)與現(xiàn)有信用信息系統(tǒng)的區(qū)別與優(yōu)點在于：它是以“戶”(農(nóng)戶)、而不是以“人”(個人)為單位,以統(tǒng)一的農(nóng)戶征信數(shù)據(jù)元為標(biāo)準(zhǔn),采用批量導(dǎo)入與手工錄入相結(jié)合的方法,實現(xiàn)對農(nóng)戶信用的自動評價。(3)根據(jù)中國“三農(nóng)”和農(nóng)村小額信貸機(jī)構(gòu)現(xiàn)狀,本論文首次提出了構(gòu)建一種界于福利主義和商業(yè)性制度主義之間的、準(zhǔn)公益性和準(zhǔn)市場化相結(jié)合的中國農(nóng)戶小額信貸模式的觀點,并細(xì)述了其運作機(jī)制,即多元化組織體系+多渠道資金來源+農(nóng)戶征信體系+利率適中的小額信貸+信貸保險+政策扶持+審慎監(jiān)管。 文章的不足之處可能有：要想全面地系統(tǒng)地把中國農(nóng)村小額信貸問題搞清楚,需要大量的調(diào)研和廣泛的資料收集,但由于受到客觀現(xiàn)實條件的限制,無法獲取我國全面系統(tǒng)的資料與相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),因而本文僅以廣東省茂名市為例實證分析了傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)地區(qū)農(nóng)戶小額信貸問題,樣本有一定局限性,因而也就難以通過完全的量化分析來對農(nóng)戶小額信貸利率進(jìn)行研究。
[Abstract]:At present , there are many researches on the sustainable development of micro credit in China and abroad , but many problems are taken into consideration from the angle of supply , that is , how to reduce transaction cost to promote demand by raising interest rate and so on .

As the world ' s largest developing country , about 60 percent of the population lives in rural areas , and agriculture , rural and peasant problems have always been a major problem in the development and modernization of the national economy . The Party ' s " 17 big " and " eighteen big " reports clearly point out that " solving the problem of agriculture in rural areas is the focus of the whole Party ' s work . "

Since the reform and opening - up , China ' s rural micro - credit has been pilot to the present comprehensive promotion from all over the world . It has played an active role in solving the difficult problem of farmer ' s loan , promoting the income of farmers , supporting rural economic development and building socialism new countryside . It has been proved that microcredit can provide effective financial support for the development of agriculture , increase farmers ' income , especially to help low - income farmers improve their living conditions , which is conducive to the construction of a harmonious well - off society .

But we also note that the development of micro - credit in Chinese farmers is still difficult to meet the demand of rural economic development , and the problem of " loan difficulty " of farmers has not changed fundamentally . In terms of demand , the demand for credit is the first demand . In terms of demand , the demand for loans is the primary demand . In terms of supply , the problem of supply and demand of microcredit affects the sustainable development of microcredit . Therefore , the problems should be analyzed , studied and solved .

In the past research and public opinion , the development of micro credit in China is not suitable for farmers ' credit . ( 5 ) According to the mechanism of micro credit operation in China , the micro credit operation mechanism of Chinese farmers with " diversified organization system + multi - channel capital source + farmer credit insurance + policy support + prudent supervision " should be constructed aiming at the problems such as few institutional points , insufficient fund source , narrow loan face , low operating cost and high risk , inadequate supervision and support and inadequate supervision .

The full text consists of eight chapters , the structure arrangement and the main contents are as follows :

The first chapter is the introduction of the research background , significance , research thinking and logic , the main research methods , possible innovation points and shortcomings .

The second chapter is a review of theoretical review and research . It mainly clarifies the meaning of farmer ' s micro - credit , introduces the relevant theoretical basis of farmer ' s micro - credit , and summarizes domestic and foreign research on micro - credit .

The third chapter is the practice and inspiration of micro credit in foreign countries . It mainly reviews the history , pattern and development trend of micro - credit in foreign countries , draws lessons from the experience , and gives reference to the better development of micro - credit in China . The experience of micro - credit in foreign countries is reflected in the following points : small credit should be expanded to as many middle and low - income groups as possible , and must pay attention to risk control ;
The determination of the micro - credit interest rate should take into account both the financial sustainability of the institution and the affordability of the customer ;
The development of microcredit should be gradual and essential to the regulation of microcredit ;
The government ' s financial policy and the country ' s financial reform are very important to the development of microcredit , and the necessary support is indispensable .

The fourth chapter is the history , present situation and problems of the micro credit development in China . It mainly reviews the development course of China ' s microfinance since the reform and opening up , analyzes the characteristics , problems and reasons , and evaluates its effectiveness .
Farmers ' micro - credit still has many problems in the aspects of capital source , risk prevention , interest rate , policy support and supervision , which severely restrict their development , financial institutions cannot lend , dare not lend , unwilling to lend , and farmers cannot lend .

The fifth chapter is an empirical analysis of Chinese farmers ' credit demand . In this chapter , based on the farmer ' s perspective , this chapter analyzes the economic behavior and credit demand characteristics of farmers by investigating the farmers ' lending situation in Guangdong Province . The empirical results show that the credit demand of farmers is strong , but the effective demand is insufficient , mainly due to the high interest rate of the loan , the conditions of mortgage guarantee and the short period .

Chapter 6 is an empirical analysis of the supply of micro credit in China . Based on the survey data of the rural credit cooperatives of Guangdong Province , this chapter introduces the current situation of micro - credit supply and the matching of farmers ' credit demand , and analyzes the factors that affect the micro - credit interest rate of farmers by comparing the profit - loss balance interest rate with the actual execution rate and the farmers ' psychological bearing interest rate .
In the present situation , farmers ' micro - credit should be sustainable , and the profit and loss balance rate needed is very high , which is much more than that of farmers .
The core reason for higher interest rate is the high rate of credit operation cost and the high cost rate of credit risk caused by asymmetric information .

Chapter 7 is the sustainable development of rural credit system construction and rural micro credit . This chapter analyzes the existing problems by reviewing the research and practice of rural credit system construction at home and abroad , and puts forward the viewpoint and design framework of farmer credit management system with standardized construction .
The establishment of standardized rural credit management system can effectively solve the problem of information asymmetry , thereby reducing the micro credit transaction cost of the farmer , and realizing the sustainable development under the interest rate which both the lending institution and the farmer can bear , so as to achieve the fundamental purpose of the micro credit institution and the farmer ' s " win - win " .

( 2 ) In the mode of operation , we put forward a system of " wide coverage , universal benefit " , " paid - off , sustainable " , " low - cost , co - development " , " heavy incentive , guaranteed " , " strong supervision , and stability " . ( 3 ) In the mode of operation , the author puts forward " diversification system + multi - channel capital source + farmer credit insurance + policy support + prudent supervision " .

This paper makes a systematic analysis of the low interest rate and the minimum loan interest rate which can be accepted by the rural micro credit demand side by using the method of econometrics and the data of the farmers and rural credit cooperatives in Guangdong Province , which is directly or participated in the investigation .

The shortcomings of this paper may be as follows : To make a thorough and systematic study of rural microfinance in China , it needs a lot of research and extensive data collection . However , because of the limitation of objective reality , we can ' t get the information and relevant data of our country ' s comprehensive system .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.4

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