本文選題：股權(quán)價(jià)值評(píng)估　切入點(diǎn)：經(jīng)營剩余收益模型　出處：《華南理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：TG公司正在籌劃上市，，公司的董事會(huì)和管理層需要對(duì)公司股權(quán)價(jià)值做出正確評(píng)價(jià)，從而為公司首發(fā)股票定價(jià)提供參考。因此有必要科學(xué)合理地對(duì)TG公司的股權(quán)價(jià)值進(jìn)行評(píng)估。 首先結(jié)合TG公司的特點(diǎn)對(duì)常用估值模型進(jìn)行比較后確定經(jīng)營剩余收益模型是最適合TG公司的估值方法；接著結(jié)合對(duì)該模型的理論剖析總結(jié)出運(yùn)用經(jīng)營剩余收益模型對(duì)TG公司估值的步驟；然后按照該步驟對(duì)TG公司的股權(quán)價(jià)值進(jìn)行評(píng)估。第一步對(duì)TG公司是否滿足經(jīng)營剩余收益模型的應(yīng)用前提進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)；第二步對(duì)TG公司的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表和利潤表分別進(jìn)行調(diào)整，以滿足干凈盈余關(guān)系，并區(qū)分經(jīng)營性活動(dòng)和金融性活動(dòng)，為估值參數(shù)分析和預(yù)測奠定基礎(chǔ)；第三步對(duì)TG公司進(jìn)行商業(yè)分析，深入分析了TG公司所處的內(nèi)外部環(huán)境，找出對(duì)公司未來銷售、成本等影響重大的因素，為參數(shù)的分析和預(yù)測提供支持；第四步在前兩步的基礎(chǔ)上，結(jié)合TG公司的歷史財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)、發(fā)展趨勢和經(jīng)營計(jì)劃，分析和預(yù)測各個(gè)估值參數(shù)，并運(yùn)用BAPM模型計(jì)算TG公司的經(jīng)營資本成本；第五步在預(yù)測得到參數(shù)的基礎(chǔ)上，運(yùn)用經(jīng)營剩余收益模型估測出TG公司的股權(quán)價(jià)值；第六步對(duì)股權(quán)價(jià)值評(píng)估結(jié)果進(jìn)行敏感性分析。 最終估測出TG公司在2013年12月31日的實(shí)體價(jià)值為133.961.30萬元，減去該時(shí)點(diǎn)上TG公司的凈金融負(fù)債賬面價(jià)值26,652.28萬元，得到TG公司2013年12月31日的股權(quán)價(jià)值為107,309.01萬元；通過單因素敏感性分析發(fā)現(xiàn)稅后經(jīng)營收益率PM、凈經(jīng)營資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率ATO和經(jīng)營資本成本K是影響TG公司股權(quán)價(jià)值的關(guān)鍵因素；通過多因素敏感性分析得到TG公司股權(quán)價(jià)值可能變動(dòng)的范圍，其中最悲觀值是65,279.79萬元，最樂觀值是399,018.04萬元。 國內(nèi)證券機(jī)構(gòu)一般采用市盈率法對(duì)首發(fā)股票上市的企業(yè)估值，通過對(duì)比得出市盈率法計(jì)算結(jié)果低于經(jīng)營剩余收益模型的估值結(jié)果，因此若用市盈率法對(duì)TG公司進(jìn)行估值將導(dǎo)致TG公司的股權(quán)價(jià)值被低估。 本文的研究利于對(duì)TG公司股權(quán)價(jià)值做出正確評(píng)價(jià)，為TG公司上市定價(jià)提供參考。同時(shí)運(yùn)用經(jīng)營剩余收益模型的估值研究還能為同行業(yè)其他企業(yè)的股權(quán)價(jià)值評(píng)估提供借鑒。
[Abstract]:TG company is planning to go public, the board of directors and the management of the company need to make a correct evaluation of the equity value of the company, so it is necessary to evaluate the equity value of TG company scientifically and reasonably in order to provide a reference for the pricing of the company's initial stock. Firstly, combined with the characteristics of TG Company, it is determined that the operating residual income model is the most suitable valuation method for TG Company. Then combined with the theoretical analysis of the model summed up the use of operating surplus income model to TG company valuation steps; Then according to this step, the equity value of TG company is evaluated. The first step is to test whether TG company meets the application premise of operating residual income model; the second step is to adjust the balance sheet and income statement of TG company separately. In order to satisfy the clean surplus relationship, and distinguish the operating activity from the financial activity, it lays the foundation for the analysis and prediction of the valuation parameters. The third step is to conduct a commercial analysis of TG Company, and analyze the internal and external environment in which TG Company is located. Find out the factors that affect the company's future sales and cost, and provide support for the analysis and prediction of the parameters; the fourth step is based on the first two steps, combining the historical financial data, development trend and business plan of TG Company. Analysis and prediction of the various valuation parameters and use of BAPM model to calculate the operating capital cost of TG. The fifth step is to estimate the equity value of TG company by using the operating surplus income model on the basis of predicting the parameters. The sixth step carries on the sensitivity analysis to the stock value appraisal result. Finally, it was estimated that the entity value of TG company on December 31, 2013 was 133.961.3 million yuan, minus the carrying value of TG company's net financial liabilities at that time, and the equity value of TG company on December 31, 2013 was 1.0730901 billion yuan. Through the single factor sensitivity analysis, it is found that ATO, ATO and operating capital cost K are the key factors influencing the equity value of TG company. Through multi-factor sensitivity analysis, the range of possible changes in equity value of TG company is obtained, in which the most pessimistic value is 652.7979 million yuan and the most optimistic value is 3.9901804 billion yuan. Domestic securities institutions generally use the price-earnings ratio method to evaluate the listed enterprises. By comparison, it is concluded that the results calculated by the price-earnings ratio method are lower than those of the operating surplus income model. Therefore, the valuation of TG by price-earnings ratio will result in undervaluation of its equity value. The research in this paper is conducive to making a correct evaluation of the equity value of TG Company and providing a reference for the listed pricing of TG Company. At the same time, the valuation study using the operating surplus income model can also provide a reference for the equity valuation of other enterprises in the same industry.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F275;F832.51

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