本文選題：消費(fèi)信貸　切入點(diǎn)：VAR模型　出處：《大連理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的不斷發(fā)展,全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的不斷減弱,恢復(fù)本國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)成為了各國(guó)的首要任務(wù),各國(guó)開(kāi)始不斷尋找發(fā)展本國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的有效途徑,其中,影響國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)的三駕馬車(chē)(投資、消費(fèi)和進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易)首先被各為發(fā)展對(duì)象,其中進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易主要與國(guó)外經(jīng)濟(jì)和投資意向相關(guān),多半是以全球經(jīng)濟(jì)為基礎(chǔ),投資和消費(fèi)都分別包括國(guó)內(nèi)和國(guó)外兩個(gè)部分,雖然對(duì)于部分國(guó)家來(lái)看,投資是迅速增加國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的最佳途徑,但是從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)角度來(lái)看,投資具有一定的局限性,提高消費(fèi)才是提高經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的最有效的途徑,于是國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)開(kāi)始成為提高本國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的首選指標(biāo)之一,各國(guó)也紛紛開(kāi)始修訂法律政策來(lái)保護(hù)本國(guó)產(chǎn)品的國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi),以此來(lái)帶動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,這時(shí)消費(fèi)信貸成為一顆新星備受世界關(guān)注。 以中國(guó)消費(fèi)信貸對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響作為研究對(duì)象,主要從消費(fèi)效應(yīng)、投資效應(yīng)以及貿(mào)易效應(yīng)下來(lái)詮釋經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),數(shù)據(jù)選用中國(guó)2003到2013年的數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)建立模型,討論消費(fèi)信貸對(duì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響,并利用計(jì)量軟件進(jìn)行分析,并得出結(jié)論。 結(jié)果表明,消費(fèi)效應(yīng)下,居民消費(fèi)信貸對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值具有一個(gè)正向的拉動(dòng)作用,而對(duì)消費(fèi)存在一定程度上負(fù)的拉動(dòng)作用,但長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看有提高趨勢(shì),消費(fèi)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值具有一定程度的拉動(dòng)作用；投資效應(yīng)下,居民消費(fèi)信貸對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值和投資具有一個(gè)較為明顯的正向拉動(dòng)作用,同時(shí)投資對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值也具有一定程度的拉動(dòng)作用；貿(mào)易效應(yīng)下,居民消費(fèi)信貸對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值具有一個(gè)較為明顯的正向拉動(dòng)作用,對(duì)進(jìn)出口產(chǎn)生一定程度的抑制作用。
[Abstract]:With the development of the economy and the weakening of the global economic crisis, the recovery of the national economy has become the most important task for all countries. All countries have been looking for effective ways to develop their own economy, among which, the troika (investment) that affects the national economy, (consumption and import and export trade) are first targeted for development. Among them, import and export trade is mainly related to foreign economies and investment intentions. Most of them are based on the global economy. Investment and consumption are both domestic and foreign, respectively. Although investment is the best way to increase GDP rapidly in some countries, in the long run, investment has certain limitations, and increasing consumption is the most effective way to increase economic growth. As a result, domestic consumption began to become one of the preferred indicators for improving the domestic economy, and countries began to revise laws and policies to protect domestic consumption of domestic products in order to promote economic development. At this time consumer credit becomes a new star to get the world attention. Taking the impact of China's consumer credit on China's economic development as the research object, this paper mainly interprets the economic growth under the consumption effect, investment effect and trade effect. The data use the data from 2003 to 2013 to build the model. This paper discusses the impact of consumer credit on economic growth, and analyzes it by means of econometric software, and draws a conclusion. The results show that consumer credit has a positive pulling effect on GDP and negative pulling effect on consumption, but in the long run, it has an increasing trend. Consumption has a certain degree of pulling effect on GDP; under the effect of investment, consumer credit has an obvious positive effect on GDP and investment. At the same time, investment has a certain degree of pulling effect on GDP; under the trade effect, consumer credit has a more obvious positive pull on GDP, and has a certain degree of inhibition on import and export.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.4;F124.1

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