本文關(guān)鍵詞： 地方政府融資平臺 銀行信貸風險 主成分分析 logistic回歸　出處：《西南財經(jīng)大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：近年來,地方政府融資平臺在抵御危機、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)、升級產(chǎn)業(yè)機構(gòu)等方面發(fā)揮了重大的作用,正是因為融資平臺公司的重要作用,融資平臺公司的債務(wù)規(guī)模也迎來了爆發(fā)性的增長,截止到2013年6月底,地方政府負有償還責任的債務(wù)10.89萬億元,其中銀行信貸占比超過50%。管理不成熟和不規(guī)范等原因使得地方政府融資平臺公司在高速發(fā)展的同時積累了巨大信貸風險,而銀行信貸風險對宏觀經(jīng)濟的影響眾所周知,因此平臺公司的信貸風險應當引起銀行方、政府方、監(jiān)管方的重視和關(guān)注。本文就政府融資平臺信貸風險影響因素進行了研究,構(gòu)建起了平臺公司銀行信貸風控指標體系,并建立了指標體系中指標與違約的logit模型,達到了基于一家平臺公司一筆貸款的銀行信貸風控指標體系的指標數(shù)值來預測其違約發(fā)生可能性的目的,為監(jiān)管提供了重要幫助。 本文首先闡述了研究背景,說明了研究的重要性,對當前國內(nèi)相關(guān)的研究現(xiàn)狀進行綜述,梳理了現(xiàn)有研究的進展和不足,發(fā)現(xiàn)當前探究中由于數(shù)據(jù)的缺乏定性理論研究較多,但定量研究較少,在眾多理論研究中關(guān)于平臺公司發(fā)展歷程和信貸風險影響因素的研究也并不全面,且為數(shù)不多的定量研究中信貸風險影響因素多局限于財務(wù)指標,本文以此為繼續(xù)研究的起點提出研究目的,分析其理論和現(xiàn)實意義。并提出研究的內(nèi)容、思路和方法,敘述本文的創(chuàng)新點和可能的不足。然后本文進行了平臺公司和平臺公司信貸風險影響因素的理論分析,這里分為兩個部分,第一部分對平臺公司進行了理論分析,首先從對融資平臺的概念和分類、產(chǎn)生和發(fā)展的過程進行研究,認識到融資平臺公司相對于一般企業(yè)功能、地位、屬性的特殊性,又據(jù)當前平臺公司信貸發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀對平臺公司信貸所呈現(xiàn)出的特點進行了說明,闡明研究平臺公司銀行信貸風險的重要性。第二部分對平臺公司信貸風險影響因素進行了理論分析,首先介紹了銀行信貸風險的概念,梳理一般企業(yè)信貸風險的影響因素,又針對當下平臺公司所蘊含的特殊風險來源,并結(jié)合上文中關(guān)于平臺公司特殊性的介紹,分別從財務(wù)角度和平臺公司自身屬性的角度分析了影響平臺公司銀行信貸風險的因素,如財政收入、平臺級別、公司治理情況等。再以某省平臺公司信貸風險發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀展開實證研究。 在實證研究中,首先對當前某省平臺公司信貸發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀進行描述統(tǒng)計分析,又結(jié)合上文對影響平臺公司銀行信貸風險因素的理論分析,選定13個可能影響違約的風險指標,如平臺級別、平臺風險屬性、貸款余額、貸款銀行數(shù)等。后通過相關(guān)性分析進行指標的初步篩選,得到財政收入、公司治理結(jié)構(gòu)健全與否、平臺公司風險屬性等八個指標,又通過主成分分析的方法進行降維處理得到四個風險綜合指標,分別是公司企業(yè)化指標,直接還款能力指標,間接還款能力指標,債務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)合理性指標。最后建立這些風險綜合指標與違約發(fā)生的logistic回歸模型,得到各原始風險指標與違約發(fā)生與否的量化關(guān)系,發(fā)現(xiàn)公司法人治理結(jié)構(gòu)的健全與否是影響其信貸風險的最重要的因素,其次代表直接還款能力的預計還款來源和風險屬性,再其次是代表間接還款能力的財政收入等,從而達到了利用平臺公司財務(wù)和性質(zhì)屬性預測一家平臺公司的一筆貸款是否會發(fā)生違約的目的。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the local government financing platform to resist the crisis, infrastructure construction, has played a major role in the upgrading of the industrial institutions, it is because of the important role of the financing platform company, the scale of corporate debt financing platform also ushered in the explosive growth, by the end of June 2013, the local government bears the responsibility to repay the debt of 10 trillion and 890 billion yuan. The bank credit accounted for more than 50%. management is not mature and not standard causes the local government financing platform company has accumulated huge credit risk in a time of rapid development, and the impact of bank credit risk on the macro economy as everyone knows, so the platform for the company's credit risk should be caused by the bank, the government, regulators and attention. This paper makes a study of the influence factors of government financing platform credit risk, build the platform of bank credit risk control index system, and establish The logit model of index and default in index system has achieved the purpose of predicting the possibility of default based on the index value of bank credit control index system based on a loan of a platform company, which has provided important help for supervision.
This paper first describes the research background, indicating the importance of the study, the relevant research at home and abroad are reviewed, combing the existing research progress and shortcomings, the current research found that due to the lack of data qualitative theory research more, but the quantitative research, in many theoretical studies on the influence factors on the development process and credit risk of the company's platform is not comprehensive, and the factors for the few quantitative studies of credit risk influence is limited to financial indicators, this paper puts forward the purpose of the study is to research the starting point, analysis of its theoretical and practical significance. And put forward the research contents, ideas and methods, the innovation of this paper and the possible problems. Then it analyzes the credit risk of the company's platform and platform influence factors of the theory in this paper, it is divided into two parts, the first part of the platform company The theoretical analysis, first from the concept and classification of the financing platform for research, production and development process, realize the financing platform company general business function, relative to the position of special attributes, and according to the characteristics of the current situation of the development of company credit platform to platform company credit presents are described, and clarifies the importance of credit the risk of bank platform company is analyzed. The second part of the credit risk of the company's platform, first introduced the concept of bank credit risk, the general effect of combing enterprise credit risk factors, special risk source according to the current platform company contains, and combined with the introduction of special platform above, respectively. From the perspective of Finance and platform for the company itself and analyzes the influencing factors of credit risk platform company bank, such as revenue, platform level, The situation of corporate governance. The status of a platform company credit risk empirical research.
In the empirical study, descriptive statistical analysis, the current status of the development of a platform for corporate credit, and combined with the analysis of above theory influence banking platform company credit risk factors, selected 13 may affect the risk of default indicators, such as the platform level, platform risk property, loans, loan bank number. After the correlation analysis preliminary screening of indicators, get financial income, perfect corporate governance structure and whether the platform company risk attribute eight indexes and method by principal component analysis to reduce the dimension four risk index, respectively is the corporate index, direct repayment ability index, indirect index index of debt repayment ability, rationality finally, set up a comprehensive index structure. These risk and default logistic regression model, the original risk index and the default quantization occurs or not The relationship between the corporate governance structure, that is sound or not is the most important factor affecting the credit risk, then direct repayment ability of the expected source of repayment and risk attribute, then indirectly the repayment ability of the fiscal revenue, so as to use the platform of corporate finance and property prediction is a platform company a loan will default.

【學位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.4

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