本文選題：電煤供應(yīng)鏈 + 協(xié)同��； 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：發(fā)電集團(tuán)的電煤供應(yīng)鏈長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)存在諸多矛盾,最突出的是煤電價(jià)格之爭(zhēng)和運(yùn)力不足兩點(diǎn)。這些矛盾為電煤供應(yīng)鏈的協(xié)同一體化發(fā)展帶來(lái)了不利的影響。自2012年下半年以來(lái),電煤價(jià)格持續(xù)下降,國(guó)家發(fā)改委也正式于2013年實(shí)施電煤并軌制度,電煤供應(yīng)鏈的協(xié)同一體化發(fā)展出現(xiàn)了新的契機(jī)。另外,2014年初發(fā)布的國(guó)家煤炭物流規(guī)劃和鐵路運(yùn)價(jià)調(diào)整等政策,也進(jìn)一步說(shuō)明了國(guó)家對(duì)煤炭供應(yīng)鏈的重視,對(duì)電煤供應(yīng)鏈協(xié)同一體化發(fā)展的相關(guān)問(wèn)題進(jìn)行深入研究非常有必要。 本文的主要研究目標(biāo)是通過(guò)對(duì)發(fā)電集團(tuán)電煤供應(yīng)鏈協(xié)同一體化中的若干關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題進(jìn)行深入研究,得到一些有效的理論模型與方法,包括電煤價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)模型、發(fā)電集團(tuán)電煤供應(yīng)鏈利益分配模型、綜合性的電煤供應(yīng)鏈風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理框架和發(fā)電集團(tuán)電煤供應(yīng)鏈協(xié)同一體化的信息化方法等。 圍繞上述目標(biāo),本文的主要研究?jī)?nèi)容包括：1)界定發(fā)電集團(tuán)電煤供應(yīng)鏈的概念和主要特性,提出全文的主要研究結(jié)構(gòu)和關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題。2)結(jié)合煤炭在北方下水港的港口庫(kù)存量、工業(yè)增加值、煤炭生產(chǎn)規(guī)劃、社會(huì)用電量、動(dòng)力煤期貨等價(jià)格影響因素,以環(huán)渤海動(dòng)力煤價(jià)格指數(shù)為研究樣本,建立了基于相關(guān)向量機(jī)的電煤價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)模型。3)通過(guò)分析發(fā)電集團(tuán)電煤供應(yīng)鏈各參與方的利益訴求,建立了電煤供應(yīng)鏈的收益共享模型,并從分散決策和集中決策等角度進(jìn)行了闡述,給出了收益共享契約下的電煤供應(yīng)鏈模型,并結(jié)合公司實(shí)例進(jìn)行了分析驗(yàn)證。4)綜合考慮發(fā)電集團(tuán)電煤供應(yīng)鏈的上下游各參與企業(yè),通過(guò)歸納整理及總結(jié)分析得到電煤供應(yīng)鏈中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,并據(jù)此對(duì)電煤供應(yīng)鏈的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)情況進(jìn)行了評(píng)估,提出彈性電煤供應(yīng)鏈的一體化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理框架。5)建立電煤供應(yīng)鏈協(xié)同一體化的信息系統(tǒng)模型,重點(diǎn)包括從煤炭資源信息、運(yùn)力信息和電廠信息等角度入手建立基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)構(gòu),以集中采購(gòu)為主建立信息系統(tǒng)的協(xié)同工作流程,智能化統(tǒng)計(jì)決策模塊等內(nèi)容。6)從實(shí)際案例入手,建立發(fā)電集團(tuán)電煤供應(yīng)鏈的協(xié)同管理模型,研究其協(xié)同一體化的合作模式。 通過(guò)對(duì)上述內(nèi)容的深入研究,有助于實(shí)現(xiàn)發(fā)電集團(tuán)電煤供應(yīng)鏈的協(xié)同一體化發(fā)展,具有重要的理論意義和實(shí)踐價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:There are many contradictions in the power supply chain of power generation group for a long time, the most prominent of which are the price of coal and the shortage of transportation capacity.These contradictions have brought unfavorable influence to the development of coordination and integration of coal supply chain.Since the second half of 2012, the price of thermal coal has been declining, and the National Development and Reform Commission has also formally implemented the system of coal integration in 2013, and a new opportunity has emerged for the development of coordinated integration of thermal coal supply chain.In addition, the national coal logistics planning and railway tariff adjustment issued at the beginning of 2014 also further illustrate the importance that the country attaches to the coal supply chain, and it is necessary to conduct a thorough study on the related issues of the coordinated integration development of the thermal coal supply chain.The main research goal of this paper is to obtain some effective theoretical models and methods, including the price prediction model of thermal coal, by deeply studying some key problems in the cooperative integration of power coal supply chain in power generation group.The profit distribution model of power coal supply chain, the comprehensive risk management framework of power coal supply chain and the information method of coordination integration of power coal supply chain in power generation group are discussed.The main research contents of this paper include: (1) defining the concept and main characteristics of power coal supply chain of power generation group, and putting forward the main research structure and key questions of this paper.Industrial value added, coal production planning, social electricity consumption, thermal coal futures and other price influencing factors, taking the thermal coal price index around the Bohai Sea as the research sample,Based on correlation vector machine, the model of coal price prediction is established. The profit sharing model of power coal supply chain is established by analyzing the interests of all parties involved in the power supply chain of power generation group.From the angle of decentralized decision and centralized decision, this paper gives the model of power coal supply chain under profit sharing contract, and analyzes and verifies the power coal supply chain with the example of company. 4) considering the upstream and downstream participating enterprises of power coal supply chain in power generation group.Through summing up and analyzing the risk factors in the power coal supply chain, the paper evaluates the risk situation of the power coal supply chain.This paper puts forward the integrated risk management framework of elastic coal supply chain. 5) establishing the information system model of coal supply chain cooperation integration. The emphasis includes the establishment of basic data structure from the aspects of coal resource information, transportation capacity information and power plant information.Based on centralized purchasing, the collaborative work flow of information system and intelligent statistical decision module are established. Based on practical cases, the cooperative management model of power coal supply chain in power generation group is established, and the cooperative mode of cooperation integration is studied.Through the thorough research of the above contents, it is helpful to realize the coordinated integration development of the power coal supply chain of the power generation group, which has important theoretical significance and practical value.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F274;F426.61

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