【摘要】：隨著美麗海淀的提出,海淀區(qū)花卉產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)實(shí)體也看到了自己的發(fā)展方向,正朝著產(chǎn)品更豐富、服務(wù)更完善的專業(yè)性花園中心經(jīng)營(yíng)模式發(fā)展,以求在激烈競(jìng)爭(zhēng)環(huán)境中站穩(wěn)腳跟。而人們通過(guò)花園中心提供的產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)也意識(shí)到追求綠色環(huán)境可以從家庭這個(gè)小單元開(kāi)始。本文基于這個(gè)背景,通過(guò)總結(jié)國(guó)外成熟花園中心的發(fā)展模式和經(jīng)營(yíng)經(jīng)驗(yàn),為建設(shè)適合我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的花園中心提供借鑒�；▓@中心作為花卉園藝產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)實(shí)體中的一種現(xiàn)代經(jīng)營(yíng)模式,本文通過(guò)重現(xiàn)我國(guó)花卉園藝產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展歷程以及北京市的花卉園藝產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,以讓讀者更深入的了解海淀區(qū)花園中心發(fā)展的背景,并為建設(shè)海淀區(qū)花園中心打下現(xiàn)實(shí)基礎(chǔ)。本文利用BP人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)和灰色預(yù)測(cè)法,對(duì)北京市花卉產(chǎn)值做了預(yù)測(cè),得到了模擬精度較高的結(jié)果,特別是BP人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)預(yù)測(cè)的平均相對(duì)誤差只有0.28%,為北京市乃至各地區(qū)花卉園藝產(chǎn)業(yè)提供了一個(gè)比較精準(zhǔn)的預(yù)測(cè)方法。由于海淀區(qū)搜集到統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)過(guò)少,只能根據(jù)北京市的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果對(duì)海淀區(qū)2014-2020年花卉產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)做一個(gè)大約的估計(jì),雖不能作為專業(yè)借鑒,但有一定的參考價(jià)值。未來(lái)幾年,雖然我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)新常態(tài),可能出現(xiàn)緩慢平穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng),但根據(jù)本文的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果,海淀區(qū)花卉園藝產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展速度不會(huì)受到影響,發(fā)展還將處于上升階段。其中其產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)模式也將以花園中心經(jīng)營(yíng)模式為主�；▓@中心的主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)是銷售與花卉園藝相關(guān)的各種產(chǎn)品,研究海淀區(qū)花園中心的產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)是本文的目的和核心。為了在總結(jié)國(guó)外花園中心發(fā)展經(jīng)驗(yàn)和了解海淀區(qū)花卉園藝產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展背景和趨勢(shì)的基礎(chǔ)上,更好地研究海淀區(qū)花園中心的產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu),本研究在海淀區(qū)的不同街道和鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)隨機(jī)調(diào)查和收集了340個(gè)有效樣本,并對(duì)收集到的的340個(gè)樣本數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了深入的定性和定量分析。利用Logistic回歸模型,分析出了對(duì)不同種類花卉園藝產(chǎn)品影響顯著的各個(gè)因素。結(jié)合成熟花園中心的經(jīng)驗(yàn)和分析結(jié)果,研究出適合海淀區(qū)花園中心的產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu),并對(duì)此提出了可行性對(duì)策建議。
[Abstract]:With the development of the beautiful Haidian District, the flower industry management entity in Haidian District has also seen its own development direction, and is developing towards the professional garden center management mode with richer products and more perfect service, in order to stand firm in the fierce competition environment. The products and services provided through the garden center also realize that the pursuit of a green environment can begin with a small unit of the family. Based on this background, this paper summarizes the development mode and management experience of foreign mature garden centers, and provides reference for the construction of garden centers suitable for our country's economic development. Garden Center is a modern management model of flower horticulture industry. This paper reproduces the development course of flower horticultural industry in China and the present situation of flower horticulture industry in Beijing. In order to let readers understand the background of Haidian District Garden Center, and lay a realistic foundation for the construction of Haidian District Garden Center. In this paper, BP artificial neural network and grey forecasting method are used to predict the output value of flowers in Beijing, and the result of high precision simulation is obtained. Especially, the average relative error of BP artificial neural network is only 0.28, which provides a more accurate prediction method for flower horticultural industry in Beijing and other regions. Due to the lack of statistical data collected in Haidian District, we can only make an approximate estimate of the trend of flower industry development in Haidian District from 2014 to 2020 according to the forecast results of Beijing. Although it can not be used as a reference for professional reference, it has certain reference value. In the next few years, although the economy of our country appears the new normal, may appear the slow steady growth, but according to the forecast result of this article, the development speed of the flower horticultural industry in Haidian district will not be affected, the development will still be in the rising stage. Among them, its industrial management model will also be based on the garden center business model. The main business of garden center is to sell all kinds of products related to flower gardening. It is the purpose and core of this paper to study the product structure of garden center in Haidian district. In order to study the product structure of garden center in Haidian District better on the basis of summing up the experience of foreign garden center development and understanding the background and trend of flower horticultural industry development in Haidian District, In this study, 340 valid samples were collected in different streets and towns in Haidian District, and 340 samples were collected qualitatively and quantitatively. Logistic regression model was used to analyze the factors that had significant influence on different kinds of horticultural products. Based on the experience and analysis results of the mature garden center, the product structure suitable for Haidian garden center is studied, and the feasible countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京林業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F326.13;TP183

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