發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-10-15 12:45

【摘要】：農(nóng)戶種養(yǎng)決策行為是種植業(yè)和畜牧業(yè)調(diào)整的微觀基礎(chǔ),對(duì)于地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)均衡至關(guān)重要,對(duì)于提高農(nóng)民收入水平來(lái)講意義重大,因此提出通俗易懂的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)使得農(nóng)民能夠自主地、科學(xué)地進(jìn)行種養(yǎng)決策,可以有效促進(jìn)農(nóng)民增收,改善區(qū)域內(nèi)農(nóng)民收入水平偏低的現(xiàn)狀。筆者基于前景理論建立農(nóng)戶風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策模型,給出了農(nóng)戶種養(yǎng)行為選擇的具體標(biāo)準(zhǔn),避免了以往研究單純分析影響因素的缺陷;通過對(duì)個(gè)體土地規(guī)模、勞動(dòng)力數(shù)量、成本和收入等因素的分析,構(gòu)建決策矩陣,計(jì)算綜合前景值,得出不同因素水平的農(nóng)戶進(jìn)行種養(yǎng)行為調(diào)整的適宜程度的順序關(guān)系;最后通過算例,給出不同因素水平下,農(nóng)戶相對(duì)最優(yōu)的決策方案,為政府引導(dǎo)農(nóng)民進(jìn)行種養(yǎng)選擇、優(yōu)化農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)布局提供依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Farmers' planting and raising decision-making behavior is the micro basis for the adjustment of planting and animal husbandry, which is very important to the balance of regional agricultural industry and to the improvement of farmers' income level. Therefore, it is very important to put forward easy-to-understand standards to enable farmers to be autonomous. Scientific planting and raising decision can effectively promote farmers' income increase and improve the situation of low income level of farmers in the region. Based on the prospect theory, the author establishes the risk decision model of farmers, gives the specific criteria of farmers' breeding and raising behavior, and avoids the defects of the previous research on simply analyzing the influencing factors, through the analysis of the scale of individual land, the quantity of labor force, and so on. By analyzing the factors such as cost and income, constructing the decision matrix and calculating the comprehensive foreground value, we can get the order relation of the appropriate degree of farmers' breeding and raising behavior adjustment with different factor levels. The relative optimal decision scheme for farmers provides the basis for the government to guide farmers to choose the planting and raising and to optimize the distribution of agricultural industry.
【作者單位】： 東北農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目“基于糧食安全的東北地區(qū)養(yǎng)殖業(yè)與糧食生產(chǎn)良性競(jìng)協(xié)發(fā)展機(jī)制研究”(71173035) 中國(guó)博士后基金項(xiàng)目(2013M540267)
【分類號(hào)】：F327

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