【摘要】：民以食為天,農(nóng)以糧為要。糧食生產(chǎn)和布局問題是關(guān)系到國家經(jīng)濟發(fā)展、社會穩(wěn)定的重要因素。本文在前人的研究基礎(chǔ)之上,引入農(nóng)業(yè)區(qū)劃的概念,以2000-2014年中國縣級糧食產(chǎn)量數(shù)據(jù)和社會經(jīng)濟指標數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),分析了近15年來中國糧食總產(chǎn)量變化特征和分區(qū)域糧食產(chǎn)量變化特征;在此基礎(chǔ)上運用空間自相關(guān)方法研究了中國縣域糧食生產(chǎn)格局空間演變狀態(tài);進而以地理探測器方法探索了全國和九大農(nóng)區(qū)內(nèi)影響糧食產(chǎn)量空間分布差異的主要因素和作用機制以及不同影響因素對糧食產(chǎn)量作用強度的變化。得到結(jié)論如下:(1)近15年來全國糧食生產(chǎn)整體呈上升趨勢,2004年到2013年出現(xiàn)了糧食產(chǎn)量"十連增"現(xiàn)象;全國糧食產(chǎn)量平均年增長率為2.43%。其中,平原縣糧食產(chǎn)量比重整體上升,到2011年達到49.57%的最高值,與2000年相比增幅達到4.63%;丘陵縣糧食產(chǎn)量比重相對穩(wěn)定,基本維持在30%左右;山區(qū)縣糧食產(chǎn)量比重整體下滑,由2000年的25.12%下降到2014年的20.57%,2013年出現(xiàn)最低值19.93%,下降幅度達到5.19%。九大農(nóng)區(qū)中糧食產(chǎn)量比重較高且對全國糧食增產(chǎn)貢獻程度較大的農(nóng)區(qū)分別為黃淮海農(nóng)業(yè)區(qū)、長江中下游農(nóng)業(yè)區(qū)、東北農(nóng)業(yè)區(qū)和西南農(nóng)業(yè)區(qū)。(2)全國糧食高產(chǎn)縣數(shù)量明顯增加,糧食生產(chǎn)重心逐漸向東北偏移;糧食生產(chǎn)分布格局仍符合胡煥庸線分布特征,但西北部糧食高產(chǎn)區(qū)范圍有所擴大。全國糧食增產(chǎn)和減產(chǎn)區(qū)呈現(xiàn)明顯的空間集聚狀態(tài),且集聚狀態(tài)不斷加強,高高集聚區(qū)逐漸向東北農(nóng)業(yè)區(qū)偏移,低低集聚區(qū)逐漸向東部和南部沿海偏移,中國糧食生產(chǎn)的地域分工更加清晰。(3)2000年-2014年,影響全國范圍內(nèi)糧食產(chǎn)量分布的主要因素由人口和第一產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)榱烁孛娣e和農(nóng)業(yè)機械總動力;不同因素對糧食產(chǎn)量空間分布的作用機制不同;兩兩指標對糧食產(chǎn)量分布的作用強度大于單個指標對糧食產(chǎn)量分布的影響。另外,農(nóng)區(qū)內(nèi)部影響糧食產(chǎn)量區(qū)域差異的主要因素也發(fā)生了較大變化,且不同農(nóng)區(qū)之間影響糧食產(chǎn)量區(qū)域差異的主要因素不同,作用機制也不同;但整體上,耕地面積和農(nóng)業(yè)機械總動力對糧食產(chǎn)量空間分異性的作用強度越來越大,人口和第一產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值對糧食產(chǎn)量空間分異性的作用強度逐漸減弱。第二產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值和地形地貌分區(qū)不是影響糧食產(chǎn)量區(qū)域差異的主要因素,但不同農(nóng)區(qū)之間仍有差別。
[Abstract]:The people take food as the sky, the farmer takes the grain as the need. Grain production and distribution are important factors related to national economic development and social stability. On the basis of previous studies, this paper introduces the concept of agricultural regionalization, based on the data of grain yield at county level and socio-economic index data from 2000 to 2014 in China. Based on the analysis of the variation characteristics of total grain yield and sub-regional grain yield in recent 15 years, the spatial evolution of grain production pattern in counties in China was studied by using spatial autocorrelation method. Furthermore, the main factors and mechanism affecting the spatial distribution of grain yield in China and Nine Agricultural regions were explored by means of geographical detector method, and the effects of different factors on the intensity of grain yield were also studied. The conclusions are as follows: (1) in the past 15 years, the total grain production in China has been on the rise, and the grain production has increased from 2004 to 2013, and the average annual growth rate of the national grain production is 2.43%. Among them, the proportion of grain production in Pingyuan County as a whole increased, reaching the highest value of 49.57% by 2011, an increase of 4.63% compared with 2000; the proportion of grain production in hilly counties was relatively stable, basically maintained at about 30%; and the proportion of grain production in mountainous counties dropped overall. From 25.12% in 2000 to 20.57% in 2014, the lowest value was 19.93% in 2013, a drop of 5.19%. Among the nine major agricultural areas, the agricultural areas with a higher proportion of grain yield and greater contribution to the national grain yield increase are the Huang-Huai-Hai agricultural region, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River agricultural region, the northeast agricultural region and the southwest agricultural region. (2) the number of high-yielding grain counties in the whole country has increased significantly. The distribution pattern of grain production still accords with Hu Huanyong line distribution, but the area of high grain production in northwest China is enlarged. China's grain production and production reduction areas show an obvious spatial agglomeration, and the agglomeration state is constantly strengthened. The high agglomeration area gradually shifts to the northeast agricultural region, and the low and low concentration area gradually shifts to the eastern and southern coastal areas. The regional division of grain production in China is more clear. (3) from 2000 to 2014, the main factors affecting the distribution of grain production in the whole country have changed from the population and the added value of the primary industry to the cultivated land area and the total power of agricultural machinery; The effect of different factors on the spatial distribution of grain yield was different, and the effect intensity of two indexes on grain yield distribution was greater than that of single index on the distribution of grain yield. In addition, the main factors affecting the regional difference of grain yield have also changed greatly, and the main factors affecting the regional difference of grain yield among different agricultural areas are different, and the mechanism of action is also different; but on the whole, The effect of cultivated land area and total power of agricultural machinery on spatial differentiation of grain yield is more and more intense, while that of population and primary industry on spatial differentiation of grain yield is gradually weakened. The value added of the secondary industry and the terrain and geomorphology zoning were not the main factors affecting the regional difference of grain yield, but there were still differences among the different agricultural areas.
【學位授予單位】：武漢大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F326.11

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