本文選題：黑龍江省 + 糧食　； 參考：《黑龍江八一農(nóng)墾大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：黑龍江省不僅是中國的產(chǎn)糧大省，也是全國最大的商品糧基地。近年來，黑龍江省糧食產(chǎn)量持續(xù)增長，為我國糧食生產(chǎn)“十一連增”作出了重要貢獻(xiàn)。與此同時，黑龍江省的糧食生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)也發(fā)生了較大變化，這一變動對糧食產(chǎn)量及糧食生產(chǎn)波動產(chǎn)生較大影響。那么，建國以來我國糧食生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)經(jīng)歷了怎樣的變化過程？其變化特征和未來變化趨勢如何？弄清這些問題，對于調(diào)整糧食種植結(jié)構(gòu)，提高糧食產(chǎn)量具有重要意義。因此，本文將采用1949-2013年的糧食生產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)分析黑龍江省糧食生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)的變動，從而揭示黑龍江糧食生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)的變動特征，在此基礎(chǔ)上，剖析糧食生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)變動的影響因素及未來發(fā)展趨勢，可以為黑龍江省糧食結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和優(yōu)化提供借鑒。經(jīng)研究，可以得出以下基本結(jié)論： (1)建國以來黑龍江省糧食生產(chǎn)獲得了較快發(fā)展，但總體波動較大。一方面，糧食產(chǎn)量的提高得益于播種面積的擴(kuò)大和單產(chǎn)的提高，單產(chǎn)的作用效果更為明顯；另一方面，糧食生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)的變動對糧食產(chǎn)量及其波動影響較大。玉米和稻谷因其較高的單產(chǎn)水平和較快的增速對糧食單產(chǎn)作用更大，且玉米和稻谷的種植面積在糧食面積中的比重不斷增加，因此，玉米和稻谷對糧食總產(chǎn)量的提高起主要作用。 (2)建國以來黑龍江省主要糧食作物生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)表現(xiàn)出由多種糧食作物逐步向四大主糧作物過渡的特征，近十年來基本呈現(xiàn)“兩增兩減”的變化態(tài)勢，“兩增”為稻谷和玉米產(chǎn)量增加，尤其是玉米生產(chǎn)持續(xù)增長，“兩減”是小麥和大豆產(chǎn)量減少。 (3)自然條件、農(nóng)業(yè)政策、技術(shù)因素和經(jīng)濟(jì)因素是影響糧食生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)的主要因素，，而玉米和稻谷在糧食生產(chǎn)中的優(yōu)勢日益突出的主要原因是這兩種糧食作物的收益較高。 （4）運(yùn)用GM（1,1）模型對黑龍江省未來幾年的糧食種植結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行預(yù)測，結(jié)果顯示未來幾年玉米產(chǎn)量將大幅上升，水稻略有下降，大豆和小麥則大幅度降低。 根據(jù)以上研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，黑龍江省以玉米和稻谷為主的糧食生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)也存在一定的問題，一方面從產(chǎn)品供給的角度來看，不利于作為大豆主產(chǎn)區(qū)的大豆生產(chǎn)發(fā)展；另一方面從耕作技術(shù)角度來看，不利于糧食生產(chǎn)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。因此，未來可以考慮通過合理的“大豆-玉米”輪作技術(shù)體系來調(diào)整和優(yōu)化糧食生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)，在確保國家糧食安全和促進(jìn)農(nóng)民增收的同時，推進(jìn)我國糧食生產(chǎn)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Heilongjiang Province is not only a big grain production province in China, but also the largest commodity grain base in China. In recent years, the grain output of Heilongjiang Province has been increasing continuously, which has made important contribution to the grain production of our country. At the same time, the structure of grain production in Heilongjiang Province has also undergone great changes, which has a great impact on the grain production and the fluctuation of grain production. So, since the founding of the people's Republic of China, what changes have been experienced in the structure of grain production? What are its changing characteristics and future trends? Understanding these problems is of great significance for adjusting grain planting structure and increasing grain yield. Therefore, this paper will use the grain production data from 1949 to 2013 to analyze the changes in the structure of grain production in Heilongjiang Province, thus revealing the changing characteristics of the structure of grain production in Heilongjiang Province, on the basis of which, The analysis of the influencing factors and the future development trend of the grain production structure can provide reference for the adjustment and optimization of the grain structure in Heilongjiang Province. After study, the following basic conclusions can be drawn: The grain production in Heilongjiang Province has developed rapidly since the founding of the people's Republic of China. On the one hand, the increase of grain yield benefits from the expansion of sowing area and the increase of unit yield, the effect of unit yield is more obvious; on the other hand, the change of grain production structure has a great influence on grain yield and its fluctuation. Maize and rice have a greater effect on grain yield because of their higher yield level and faster growth rate, and the proportion of corn and rice planting area in grain area is increasing, therefore, Corn and rice play a major role in increasing the total grain yield. (2) since the founding of the people's Republic of China, the production structure of the main grain crops in Heilongjiang Province has shown the characteristics of the transition from a variety of grain crops to four main grain crops. In the past ten years, the production structure of the main grain crops has basically shown a changing trend of "two increases and two decreases". "two increase" is the increase of rice and corn yield, especially the continuous increase of corn production, and "two minus" is the decrease of wheat and soybean yield. 3) Natural conditions, agricultural policies, technical factors and economic factors are the main factors affecting the structure of grain production, and the main reason for the increasing superiority of corn and rice in grain production is the higher income of these two kinds of grain crops. (4) the grain planting structure of Heilongjiang Province in the next few years was predicted by using the GMM1) model. The results showed that the corn yield would increase significantly in the next few years, the rice yield would decrease slightly, and the soybean and wheat crops would decrease significantly in the next few years. According to the above research, there are some problems in the grain production structure of Heilongjiang Province, which is mainly corn and rice. On the one hand, from the point of view of product supply, it is not conducive to the development of soybean production as the main soybean production area; On the other hand, from the perspective of farming technology, is not conducive to the sustainable development of grain production. Therefore, in the future, we can consider adjusting and optimizing the grain production structure through a reasonable "Soybean-corn" rotation technology system, which can ensure the national grain security and promote the farmers' income, and promote the sustainable development of China's grain production at the same time.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：黑龍江八一農(nóng)墾大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F326.11

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