中國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口的自貿(mào)區(qū)貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造和貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移效應(yīng)研究——基于SYSGMM估計的進(jìn)口需求模型
發(fā)布時間:2018-04-13 18:13
本文選題:農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易 + 自由貿(mào)易區(qū); 參考:《農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)問題》2017年09期
【摘要】:本文基于進(jìn)口需求模型,采用SYSGMM方法,并結(jié)合反事實(shí)估計,測算我國多個自貿(mào)區(qū)對中國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口的貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造和貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移效應(yīng),研究結(jié)論表明:中國東盟自貿(mào)區(qū)、中國新西蘭自貿(mào)區(qū)、中國秘魯自貿(mào)區(qū)對中國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口存在貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造效應(yīng),不存在貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移效應(yīng);中國新加坡自貿(mào)區(qū)、中國瑞士自貿(mào)區(qū)對中國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口既不存在貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造效應(yīng),也不存在貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移效應(yīng)。中國東盟自貿(mào)區(qū)貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造效應(yīng)較大,并且存在較長的持續(xù)性;中國新西蘭自貿(mào)區(qū)、中國秘魯自貿(mào)區(qū)貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造占貿(mào)易增長比例較大,其中中國新西蘭自貿(mào)區(qū)效應(yīng)逐年較穩(wěn)定的遞減,中國秘魯自貿(mào)區(qū)變化幅度較大。
[Abstract]:Based on the import demand model, using SYSGMM method and counterfactual estimation, this paper calculates the trade creation and trade transfer effects of China's agricultural imports from several free trade zones. The research results show that: China-ASEAN Free Trade area.China New Zealand Free Trade Zone, China Peru Free Trade Zone has trade creation effect on Chinese agricultural products import, no trade transfer effect; China Singapore Free Trade Zone,There is neither trade creation effect nor trade transfer effect in China Swiss Free Trade Zone.The trade creation effect of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Zone is large, and there is a long lasting effect. In China and New Zealand Free Trade Zone, China Peru Free Trade Zone Trade creation accounts for a large proportion of the trade growth.The free trade zone effect of China and New Zealand decreases steadily year by year, and the change range of China Peru free trade zone is larger.
【作者單位】: 中國農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)管理學(xué)院;
【分類號】:F323.7;F752.61
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