發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-13 18:13

  本文選題：農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易 + 自由貿(mào)易區(qū)　； 參考：《農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題》2017年09期

【摘要】：本文基于進(jìn)口需求模型,采用SYSGMM方法,并結(jié)合反事實(shí)估計(jì),測(cè)算我國(guó)多個(gè)自貿(mào)區(qū)對(duì)中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口的貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造和貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移效應(yīng),研究結(jié)論表明:中國(guó)東盟自貿(mào)區(qū)、中國(guó)新西蘭自貿(mào)區(qū)、中國(guó)秘魯自貿(mào)區(qū)對(duì)中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口存在貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造效應(yīng),不存在貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移效應(yīng);中國(guó)新加坡自貿(mào)區(qū)、中國(guó)瑞士自貿(mào)區(qū)對(duì)中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口既不存在貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造效應(yīng),也不存在貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移效應(yīng)。中國(guó)東盟自貿(mào)區(qū)貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造效應(yīng)較大,并且存在較長(zhǎng)的持續(xù)性;中國(guó)新西蘭自貿(mào)區(qū)、中國(guó)秘魯自貿(mào)區(qū)貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造占貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)比例較大,其中中國(guó)新西蘭自貿(mào)區(qū)效應(yīng)逐年較穩(wěn)定的遞減,中國(guó)秘魯自貿(mào)區(qū)變化幅度較大。
[Abstract]:Based on the import demand model, using SYSGMM method and counterfactual estimation, this paper calculates the trade creation and trade transfer effects of China's agricultural imports from several free trade zones. The research results show that: China-ASEAN Free Trade area.China New Zealand Free Trade Zone, China Peru Free Trade Zone has trade creation effect on Chinese agricultural products import, no trade transfer effect; China Singapore Free Trade Zone,There is neither trade creation effect nor trade transfer effect in China Swiss Free Trade Zone.The trade creation effect of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Zone is large, and there is a long lasting effect. In China and New Zealand Free Trade Zone, China Peru Free Trade Zone Trade creation accounts for a large proportion of the trade growth.The free trade zone effect of China and New Zealand decreases steadily year by year, and the change range of China Peru free trade zone is larger.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)管理學(xué)院;
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F323.7;F752.61

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