發(fā)布時間：2018-04-04 21:47

  本文選題：糧食自給率　切入點：自給率波動　出處：《湖南科技大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：糧食是國民經(jīng)濟的基礎(chǔ)和人類賴以生存的必需品,是治國安邦的戰(zhàn)略物資。糧食安全始終是關(guān)系國民經(jīng)濟發(fā)展、社會穩(wěn)定和國家自立的全局性戰(zhàn)略問題。糧食自給率是衡量糧食安全的一個非常重要的指標,我國歷來高度重視糧食自給率水平。1996年發(fā)布的《中國糧食問題》白皮書和2008年發(fā)布的《國家糧食安全中長期規(guī)劃綱要(2008-2020年)》都提出了高自給率的目標,堅持糧食立足國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)。然而,隨著糧食國際化程度的提高,貿(mào)易對糧食自給率的影響逐漸顯現(xiàn)出來。糧食生產(chǎn)出現(xiàn)了高生產(chǎn)量、高收購量、高庫存量的“三高”疊加的特殊現(xiàn)象。糧食自給率卻呈現(xiàn)出不斷下降的趨勢,尤其是近幾年來下降非常明顯,已經(jīng)跌破90%的警戒線。為此,我國適時調(diào)整糧食自給率目標,2014年首次提出了糧食“適度進口”戰(zhàn)略。本文在梳理1992年以來我國糧食自給率政策演變的基礎(chǔ)上,分別測算了1992-2013年的我國狹義糧食自給率、廣義糧食自給率、糧油自給率和營養(yǎng)素自給率,接著從理論上分析了我國加入WTO前后兩個階段糧食自給率波動的影響因素,然后構(gòu)建半對數(shù)計量模型,并運用OLS最小二乘法估計了各變量對我國糧食自給率的影響效應(yīng)。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),加入WTO以前,影響糧食自給率的因素主要是傳統(tǒng)的國內(nèi)的糧食供給和需求;加入WTO以后,貿(mào)易通過作用于我國的糧食供給和需求,擴大了我國糧食凈進口量,降低了我國糧食自給率水平,其中虛擬變量WTO和糧食貿(mào)易量對我國糧食自給率的抑制作用最大,系數(shù)分別為-0.3163和-0.2927。最后根據(jù)分析結(jié)論提出了保障我國糧食安全的糧食自給率的對策:立足適度進口戰(zhàn)略,科學確定糧食自給率;高度重視食物生產(chǎn),切實防止非農(nóng)化傾向;確保三大主糧自給,分類確定食物自給率;創(chuàng)新國際合作方式,確保食物進口多元化;強化國際貿(mào)易措施,增強食物進口話語權(quán)。
[Abstract]:Grain is the foundation of the national economy and the necessity of human survival, is the strategic goods of national security.Food security is always an overall strategic problem related to the development of national economy, social stability and national independence.The self-sufficiency rate of grain is a very important indicator to measure food security.China has always attached great importance to the level of self-sufficiency of grain. The White Paper on China's Grain problem issued in 1996 and the outline of the National medium and long term Program for Food Security issued in 2008 have both set the goal of high self-sufficiency rate and insisted that grain should be based on domestic production.However, with the increase of grain internationalization, the influence of trade on grain self-sufficiency rate gradually appears.The special phenomenon of "three high" superposition of high production, high purchase quantity and high inventory appeared in grain production.However, the grain self-sufficiency rate has been decreasing, especially in recent years, which has fallen below the 90% warning line.Therefore, our country adjusts the grain self-sufficiency rate target in time, and puts forward the grain "moderate import" strategy for the first time in 2014.On the basis of combing the evolution of China's grain self-sufficiency rate policy since 1992, this paper calculates the narrow grain self-sufficiency rate, the generalized grain self-sufficiency rate, the grain and oil self-sufficiency rate and the nutrient self-sufficiency rate in China from 1992 to 2013.Then the paper theoretically analyzes the influencing factors of the fluctuation of grain self-sufficiency rate in two stages before and after China's entry into WTO, then constructs a semi-logarithmic econometric model, and estimates the effect of each variable on the grain self-sufficiency rate by using the OLS least square method.It is found that before China's entry into WTO, the main factors affecting the grain self-sufficiency rate are the traditional domestic grain supply and demand, and after China's entry into WTO, trade has expanded the net grain import through the effect of China's grain supply and demand.The level of grain self-sufficiency rate in China was reduced, and the virtual variable WTO and the grain trade volume had the most inhibitory effect on the self-sufficiency rate of grain in China, with coefficients of -0.3163 and -0.2927 respectively.Finally, according to the conclusion of the analysis, the paper puts forward the countermeasures of ensuring the grain self-sufficiency rate of our country's grain security: base on the moderate import strategy, scientifically determine the grain self-sufficiency rate; attach great importance to food production, effectively prevent the non-agricultural tendency; ensure the self-sufficiency of the three main grains.Classification determines the food self-sufficiency rate; innovates international cooperation to ensure the diversification of food imports; strengthens international trade measures; strengthens the voice of food imports.
【學位授予單位】：湖南科技大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F326.11

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本文編號：1711816