本文關(guān)鍵詞： 低碳農(nóng)業(yè) 綜合評價 指標體系 發(fā)展水平　出處：《福建農(nóng)林大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：政府間氣候變化專業(yè)委員會第四次評估報告表明,農(nóng)業(yè)排放的CH4、N2O分別占人類活動總量的50%、60%,其溫室氣體排放量占全球的14%,是介于電熱生產(chǎn)和尾氣間的第二大溫室氣體排放源。我國在城鄉(xiāng)二元體制下,三農(nóng)問題突出,農(nóng)業(yè)相對滯后,以“高投入、高生產(chǎn)、高消耗”為特征的傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè),所帶來的資源環(huán)境問題,直接影響農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的安全和農(nóng)業(yè)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展,威脅著人類的健康與發(fā)展。因此農(nóng)業(yè)的低碳發(fā)展,既是農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化的必由之路,也是應(yīng)對氣候變化、建設(shè)兩型社會、實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)發(fā)展的要求。而在推動農(nóng)業(yè)低碳化的進程中,分析現(xiàn)階段農(nóng)業(yè)低碳化發(fā)展的水平,找出主要碳排放源,就是一個迫切需要解決的實踐課題。本文基于低碳經(jīng)濟理論、現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)等重要理論,利用熵值法、碳排放測算公式對我國30個省域低碳農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展水平、碳排放量變化情況進行定性與定量分析研究。首先,根據(jù)碳排放系數(shù)及計算公式測算出2008-2012年農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放總量、觀測其總體變化情況及分布規(guī)律,找出農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)活動過程中的主要碳排放源,分析農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展與碳排放量之間的關(guān)系。由研究結(jié)果可知：2008-2012年碳排放總量從20389.75萬t增至21985.15萬t,其中碳排放總量、人均碳排量、碳生產(chǎn)力年均增長率為1.56%、2.55%、11.19%,其中在化肥、農(nóng)藥、農(nóng)膜、柴油等農(nóng)用化學品投入中化肥投入量、碳排放量均居各年份之首。其次,根據(jù)熵值法計算原理構(gòu)建了低碳農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展水平評價指標體系并測算綜合得分,從農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)要素投入、能源低碳化、社會投入和經(jīng)濟效益四個維度分析影響各省份低碳農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展水平得分高低的潛在因素。由評價結(jié)果可知：我國低碳農(nóng)業(yè)綜合得分僅為0.29856分,總體發(fā)展水平欠佳,超過0.42573分的僅有山東、四川、河南、江蘇,而京、津、滬僅為0.17380分、0.17072分、0.14067分�；诰C合評價結(jié)果,結(jié)合碳生產(chǎn)力、經(jīng)濟效益、能耗利用水平以及30個省域所處的農(nóng)業(yè)低碳化水平進行分類研究,結(jié)果表明,山東、河南、河北、黑龍江、江蘇、廣東、四川、廣西、貴州、湖南等十個省份屬于低碳農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展“高水平-低排放”地區(qū)；陜西、遼寧、吉林、云南四個省份屬于“低水平-低排放”地區(qū)。湖北、內(nèi)蒙古、安徽、浙江、海南五個省份屬于“高水平-高排放”地區(qū)；新疆、江西、山西、甘肅、福建、青海、寧夏、重慶、北京、天津、上海等十一個地區(qū)處于農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展的“低水平—高排放”地區(qū)。最后提出發(fā)展低碳農(nóng)業(yè)的對策建議：一是根據(jù)前文實證分析結(jié)果、各個省份所處的低碳農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展階段,立足各個區(qū)域特點、農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展特色和各地原有的農(nóng)業(yè)傳統(tǒng),因地制宜提出相應(yīng)的解決對策；二是總結(jié)當前我國新型低碳農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展模式,包括減源型、增匯固碳型、富碳農(nóng)業(yè)、農(nóng)業(yè)體驗經(jīng)濟模式。
[Abstract]:The 4th assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change show that. Ch _ 4N _ 2O from agriculture accounts for 50% of the total amount of human activities, and its greenhouse gas emissions account for 14% of the world's total. It is the second largest source of greenhouse gas emissions between electrothermal production and tail gas. Under the urban-rural dual system, the problems of agriculture, rural areas and farmers are prominent in China. The traditional agriculture, characterized by "high input, high production and high consumption", has brought about the problems of resources and environment, which directly affect the safety of agricultural products and the sustainable development of agriculture. Therefore, the low-carbon development of agriculture is not only the only way to modernize agriculture, but also to deal with climate change and build a two-type society. In the process of promoting low carbonization of agriculture, the level of development of low carbonization in agriculture at present is analyzed, and the main sources of carbon emissions are found out. Based on the theory of low carbon economy, modern agriculture and other important theories, this paper uses entropy method and carbon emission formula to measure the development level of low carbon agriculture in 30 provinces of China. First of all, according to the carbon emission coefficient and calculation formula, the total amount of agricultural carbon emissions from 2008 to 2012 is calculated, and its overall change and distribution law are observed. To find out the main carbon emission sources in the process of agricultural production, and to analyze the relationship between agricultural economic development and carbon emissions. From the research results, we can see that the total carbon emissions increased from two hundred and three million eight hundred and ninety-seven thousand and five hundred tons to two hundred and nineteen million eight hundred and fifty-one thousand and five hundred tons in 2008-2012, in which the total carbon emissions per capita and the total carbon emissions per capita increased from two hundred and three million eight hundred and ninety-seven thousand and five hundred tons to two hundred and nineteen million eight hundred and fifty-one thousand and five hundred tons. The average annual growth rate of carbon productivity is 1.56% 2.55% and 11.19%, in which chemical fertilizer input, pesticide, agricultural film, diesel and other agrochemical inputs, carbon emissions are the highest in all years. According to the calculation principle of entropy method, the evaluation index system of low carbon agriculture development level is constructed and the comprehensive score is calculated, which is based on the input of agricultural production factors and energy low carbonization. Four dimensions of social input and economic benefit are analyzed to analyze the potential factors that affect the development level of low-carbon agriculture in various provinces. The evaluation results show that the comprehensive score of low-carbon agriculture in China is only 0.29856, and the overall development level is poor. Only Shandong, Sichuan, Henan, Jiangsu, Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai scored 0.17380, 0.17072, 0.14067. Based on the comprehensive evaluation results, combined with carbon productivity and economic benefits, The energy use level and the low carbonization level of agriculture in 30 provinces were classified. The results showed that Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Sichuan, Guangxi, Guizhou, Ten provinces, including Hunan, belong to the "high-level-low-emission" region for low-carbon agricultural development, and four provinces, Shaanxi, Liaoning, Jilin, and Yunnan, belong to the "low-level-low-emission" region.Hubei, Inner Mongolia, Anhui, Zhejiang, Five provinces in Hainan are "high-level-high-emission" areas; Xinjiang, Jiangxi, Shanxi, Gansu, Fujian, Qinghai, Ningxia, Chongqing, Beijing, Tianjin, Eleven regions, such as Shanghai, are in the "low-level-high-emission" region of agricultural development. Finally, the countermeasures and suggestions for developing low-carbon agriculture are put forward: first, according to the results of the previous empirical analysis, each province is in the stage of low-carbon agriculture development. Based on the characteristics of various regions, the characteristics of agricultural economic development and the original agricultural traditions in various localities, corresponding countermeasures are put forward according to local conditions; second, the current new low-carbon agricultural development models in China are summarized, including reducing sources, increasing sinks and sequestration of carbon. Carbon-rich agriculture, agriculture experience economic model.
【學位授予單位】：福建農(nóng)林大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F327

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