發(fā)布時間：2018-03-01 08:15

  本文關鍵詞： 產(chǎn)業(yè)安全 大豆產(chǎn)業(yè) 跨國并購 政府補貼 套期保值　出處：《山東大學》2010年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】： 伴隨著全球經(jīng)濟一體化程度的加深,產(chǎn)業(yè)安全問題日益受到重視。本文在全球生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)絡的框架下,結合產(chǎn)業(yè)安全理論來對中國大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)安全問題進行分析。在借鑒前人研究成果的基礎上,力求客觀地分析出影響大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)安全的幾個最重要因素,并分別對這幾個因素并試圖提出一種真正有效而可行的實戰(zhàn)方案來幫助中國的大豆壓榨企業(yè)規(guī)避急劇波動的大豆、豆油及豆粕價格的風險。 本文采用理論加實證的分析方法,理論方面提出了基于全球生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)絡的新產(chǎn)業(yè)安全觀,即要從資源要素、國際產(chǎn)業(yè)競爭力、引進外資和金融產(chǎn)業(yè)安全四個方面系統(tǒng)闡釋全球生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)絡形成對中國現(xiàn)實產(chǎn)業(yè)安全形成的威脅。實證方面,采用了灰色系統(tǒng)模型、因子分析模型、DEA數(shù)據(jù)包絡分析和案例研究方法。希望架構起一個中國產(chǎn)業(yè)安全的指標體系和計量模型,進而構筑起中國大豆產(chǎn)安全的指標體系和風險計量模型。 本文的實證結論是：用DEA模型計算的2009-2019年的大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)安全度結果顯示,中國大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)處于危機和不安全狀態(tài)。并且因子模型結果顯示,產(chǎn)業(yè)控制指標,產(chǎn)業(yè)對外依存度排在前兩名,或者說明影響大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)安全的最重要的兩個指標是產(chǎn)業(yè)控制指標和產(chǎn)業(yè)對外依存度。隨后兩章本文便針對這兩個影響因子進行了詳細的分視角研究。 本文的主要創(chuàng)新點包括以下四個方面： 第一,大豆期貨價格暴漲暴跌、急劇動蕩,已經(jīng)使得大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)由實體經(jīng)濟里的供給安全向虛擬經(jīng)濟里的價格安全發(fā)生了轉(zhuǎn)變。僅從實體經(jīng)濟即大豆生產(chǎn)的供給需求視角來研究中國大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)的安全問題顯然已經(jīng)不夠,本文提出了一個全新的分析框架：“貨幣信用—虛擬經(jīng)濟—實體經(jīng)濟”。在這一框架下,我們能得到大豆價格暴漲暴跌的合理性解釋：即三個兩極分化導致了大豆價格的急劇波動�！柏泿判庞梅峙涞膬蓸O分化”制造和加劇“真實收入分配的兩極分化”,制造和加劇“真實經(jīng)濟和虛擬經(jīng)濟的嚴重背離和兩極分化”,美元本位制加上浮動匯率制使得天量貨幣泛濫人間,這些資金在實體經(jīng)濟里找不到投資的熱土,便沖進了虛擬經(jīng)濟領域,導致了大豆等全球大宗商品價格的暴漲暴跌。 第二,目前文獻對中國大豆產(chǎn)安全的研究僅僅局限于一些表面數(shù)據(jù)的分析,而沒有定量的計量模型的計算。本文在第3章建立起產(chǎn)業(yè)安全研究的指標體系的基礎上,第4章構筑了專門研究中國大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)安全的指標體系。即產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展環(huán)境、產(chǎn)業(yè)競爭力、產(chǎn)業(yè)對外依存及產(chǎn)業(yè)外資控制率四個指標體系,并且進一步地利用灰色模型、DEA模型、趨勢外推等方法對大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)進行了評價,預測在未來十年中國大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)仍將處于危機狀態(tài),前景堪憂。 第三,以往的文獻基本都是強調(diào)大豆及大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)的商品屬性,本文強調(diào)的是大豆的金融屬性。即大豆不僅僅是一種生產(chǎn)原材料和消費必需品,進一步作為一種投資手段,被國際糧商或國際投機資金所操縱。 第四,在研究中國大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)價格安全的時候,在“貨幣信用—虛擬經(jīng)濟—實體經(jīng)濟”的視角下,發(fā)現(xiàn)投機逐步主導了虛擬經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展。“經(jīng)濟人”假設是人們在從事經(jīng)濟活動時候追逐個人利益最大化。本文則嘗試提出“投機人”假設。所謂“投機人”就是人們在從事虛擬經(jīng)濟投資之時追逐個人欲望的最大化。“經(jīng)濟人”在面臨利益最大化的時候會收手不干,保住利潤,而“投機人”則在無窮貪欲的人性驅(qū)使下重倉再次交易(其結果往往是以回吐利潤甚至出現(xiàn)大的虧損)；“經(jīng)濟人”在面臨虧損時,出于個人利益最大化之考慮會及時止損,而“投機人”往往會沉迷于自己的分析判斷,總會幻想行情會朝自己認定的方向走(其結果往往是巨額虧損)；“經(jīng)濟人”理性的,而“投機人”非理性；“經(jīng)濟人”往往投資于實體經(jīng)濟,而“投機人”大多癡迷在虛擬經(jīng)濟里面。小的散戶“投機人”往往輸給大的機構“投機人”(比如對沖基金)�！巴稒C人”越來越多,能踏踏實實參與實體經(jīng)濟財富創(chuàng)造的人越來越少�！巴稒C人”的投機成功催生一個又一個經(jīng)濟泡沫,營造非理性繁榮的假象；而他們的投機失敗,則會給世界帶來嚴重的經(jīng)濟危機。 最后的案例研究給出了一個切實可行的中國大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)套保方案,作者正努力地開發(fā)這一套保模型,以期能實現(xiàn)程序化交易,更好的幫助中國的大豆企業(yè)合理的套期保值,以期更好的規(guī)避大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)的價格波動風險。
[Abstract]:Along with the deepening of global economic integration, industrial safety problems have been paid more and more attention. In this paper, in the framework of global production networks, combined with industry security theory to analyze the China soybean industry security problems. On the basis of previous research, and strive to objectively analyze several factors influencing the safety of soybean industry is the most important factor, and of these factors and tries to put forward a kind of practical truly effective and practical programs to help Chinese soybean crushers avoid sharp fluctuations in the risk of soybean, soybean oil and soybean meal price.
This paper uses theoretical and empirical analysis method, and put forward a new theory of global production network security industry outlook based on the elements from the resources, the international competitiveness of industries, the introduction of foreign capital and the security of financial industry in four aspects of the global production network system on the formation of Chinese interpretation of reality to the threat of industrial safety. The empirical analysis, using the gray the system model, factor analysis model, DEA method of data envelopment analysis and case study. To establish a China industrial safety index system and measurement model, and then build the index system and risk measurement models Chinese soybean production safety.
The conclusions of this paper are: the DEA model of the 2009-2019 years of the soybean industry safety results show that Chinese soybean industry is in crisis and insecurity. The factor model results show that indicators of industrial control, industrial dependence on foreign in the top two, or that the two most important indicators of the soybean industry security the industrial control index and industrial dependence on foreign. This will be followed by two chapters of the two impact factors for a detailed view of the sub.
The main innovation points of this paper include the following four aspects:
First, the soybean futures price spike, sharp turbulence has made the real economy from the soybean industry in the supply of security to the virtual economy where the price of the security has changed. Only from the perspective of supply and demand of real economy is soybean production to study the safety Chinese soybean industry has apparently not enough, this paper presents a new analysis frame: "money credit virtual economy the real economy". In this framework, we can get a reasonable explanation of soybean prices plummeted: that the three polarization leads to sharp fluctuations in soybean prices. "Monetary credit allocation polarization" manufacturing and increase the "real income distribution, manufacturing and increase the" polarization "the real economy and the virtual economy and the polarization of serious departure from the dollar standard", with a floating exchange rate system makes the amount of money flooding, these Money in the real economy can't find the hot land of investment, and it has rushed into the virtual economy, leading to a surge in global commodity prices such as soya beans.
Second, analysis of the current literature on the safety of soybean production China confined to some surface data, calculation and no quantitative measurement model. In the third chapter of this paper establishes the index system based on industry security, the fourth chapter constructs the index system of specialized research Chinese soybean industry security. The industrial development environment industry, competitiveness, industry and the dependence on foreign control of industry rate of four indicators, and further use of the gray model, DEA model, trend extrapolation method to evaluate the soybean industry forecast in the next ten years China soybean industry will remain in a state of crisis, the prospects are grim.
絎笁,浠ュ線鐨勬枃鐚熀鏈兘鏄己璋冨ぇ璞嗗強澶ц眴浜т笟鐨勫晢鍝佸睘鎬，

本文編號：1551116