發(fā)布時間：2018-03-01 10:04

  本文關鍵詞： 農村勞動力轉移 城鄉(xiāng)收入差距 VAR模型 逐步回歸法　出處：《南京財經大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：農村勞動力轉移是發(fā)展中國家現(xiàn)代化進程的必然現(xiàn)象。我省勞動力的大規(guī)模轉移始于20世紀90年代初,這尤其體現(xiàn)在農村勞動力從農業(yè)部門向非農部門轉移。伴隨著經濟快速發(fā)展,我省農村勞動力轉移規(guī)模逐漸擴大,與此同時我省城鄉(xiāng)之間、地區(qū)之間的貧富差距仍然在逐漸擴大,全省的基尼系數(shù)從2002年以后都超出了0.4的國際警戒水平線。農村勞動力轉移與城鄉(xiāng)收入差距之間是否存在聯(lián)系,相關政策是否能夠影響,值得人們的關注。根據(jù)新古典經濟學理論和劉易斯的二元經濟模型,農村勞動力轉移可以促進農民收入水平的增加以及農業(yè)勞動生產率的提高,從而抑制城鄉(xiāng)收入差距的拉大。我省的現(xiàn)實情況和理論出現(xiàn)了某種背離,因此本文選取江蘇省作為研究對象,理論和實證分析了我省農村勞動力轉移與城鄉(xiāng)收入差距互動關系和影響我省城鄉(xiāng)收入差距的原因。本文首先對國內外學者關于這方面的主要研究結果進行簡單闡述。其次建立理論模型分析兩者之間的關系,并且利用1986-2013年江蘇省的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)進行實證分析。理論分析結果表明農村勞動力向非農業(yè)部門的轉移能夠提高農村居民收入,從而縮小城鄉(xiāng)收入差距；同時城鄉(xiāng)收入差距也能夠吸引農村勞動力的轉移,兩者之間能夠彼此影響。實證分析方面,格蘭杰因果檢驗表明兩者之間存在格蘭杰因果關系。VAR模型結果表明農村勞動力轉移和城鄉(xiāng)收入差距構成的系統(tǒng)在長期偏離均衡時,兩者能夠自動調整到均衡狀態(tài)。最后單向考慮影響我省收入差距的原因,以農村勞動力轉移率為核心變量,逐個加入其他影響城鄉(xiāng)收入差距的顯著控制變量,利用加入虛擬變量的逐步回歸法構建的最優(yōu)多元回歸模型結果表明農村勞動力轉移率、經濟開放程度、第一產業(yè)產值比重、農村勞動生產率和第一產業(yè)從業(yè)人員比重這五個因素對我省城鄉(xiāng)收入差距存在顯著影響。最后結合本文理論部分和實證部分的研究結果,給出相關政策建議：推動農村勞動力的合理轉移；改變城鄉(xiāng)經濟結構,促進城鎮(zhèn)一體化建設；轉變對外貿易發(fā)展方式,促進產業(yè)結構升級。
[Abstract]:The transfer of rural labor is an inevitable phenomenon in the modernization of developing countries. The mass transfer of our province labor began in the early 1990s, especially in rural labor transfer from agriculture to non-agricultural sectors. With the rapid development of economy, the province's rural labor transfer scale expands gradually, at the same time, between urban and rural areas, the gap between rich and poor is still in the area the province is gradually expanding, the Gini coefficient since 2002 has exceeded the international warning level of 0.4. There is a connection between the transfer of rural labor and the income gap between urban and rural areas, the relevant policy is able to influence, worthy of attention. According to the two yuan economic model of new classical economics theory and Lewis, can promote the increase of farmers' income level and to improve the agricultural productivity of the rural labor transfer, thereby inhibiting the income gap between urban and rural areas pull . I, the reality and the theory has some deviation, so this paper selects Jiangsu Province as the research object, theoretical and empirical analysis of the cause of our province rural labor transfer and the income gap between rural and urban interaction and influence of income gap between urban and rural areas of our province. Based on the domestic and foreign scholars mainly study on this aspect of the results are simple in this paper. Secondly build theoretical model to analyze the relationship between the two, and according to the statistical data of 1986-2013 years in Jiangsu province empirical analysis. Theoretical analysis shows that the rural labor force to non-agricultural sector can increase the income of rural residents, thus narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas; the simultaneous transfer of income gap between urban and rural areas can also attract rural labor force between the two. Can influence each other. The empirical analysis, Grainger causality test shows that there is a causal relationship between the two.VAR Grainger The results show that the model of rural labor transfer and income gap between urban and rural areas in the system deviate from the long-term equilibrium, which can automatically adjust to equilibrium. Finally, considering the influence of one-way Heilongjiang Province income gap, the rural labor transfer rate as the core variables and the control variables significantly add other effects of income gap between urban and rural areas, the optimal regression model results based on the method of stepwise regression by adding dummy variables indicate that rate of rural labor transfer, the degree of openness, the primary industry, labor productivity in rural areas and the first industry from the five factors of industry personnel proportion on the income gap between urban and rural areas of our province have significant effects. Finally, combined with the research results and the empirical part of this theory, put forward the relevant policy recommendations: to promote the reasonable transfer of rural labor; change of urban and rural economic structure, promote the integration of urban construction Change the way of foreign trade development and promote the upgrading of the industrial structure.

【學位授予單位】：南京財經大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F323.6;F323.8

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本文編號：1551452