本文選題：軌道交通項(xiàng)目 + 投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理��； 參考：《中國海洋大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：軌道交通建設(shè)項(xiàng)目投資額巨大、建設(shè)周期長、投資回收期長、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)高等特征阻礙了軌道交通建設(shè)的順利進(jìn)行,城市軌道交通建設(shè)項(xiàng)目投資主體是政府部門,可見,政府投融資在軌道交通建設(shè)中作用重大,但由于軌道交通建設(shè)項(xiàng)目投融資主體單一,致使解決城市交通需求出現(xiàn)制約,而且不利于更好地城市軌道交通路網(wǎng)的建設(shè)與發(fā)展。此外,城市軌道交通是準(zhǔn)公共產(chǎn)品,具有非排他性特征,單憑票價(jià)收入及其他運(yùn)營收入難以快速實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利,項(xiàng)目運(yùn)營階段需政府財(cái)政支持才能維持運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。因此,建設(shè)城市軌道交通項(xiàng)目必須重視投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理問題。因此,本論文以長沙軌道交通2號線工程項(xiàng)目為研究對象,在系統(tǒng)化的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)理論分析的基礎(chǔ)上,進(jìn)一步對該項(xiàng)目投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素進(jìn)行了識別和評估,并提出了該項(xiàng)目投資存在的關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn),繼而有針對性地提出了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對及防范措施。本文的研究內(nèi)容如下：首先,介紹了項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的相關(guān)基本理論、工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的有關(guān)基礎(chǔ)知識以及項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的基本過程、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識別、評估和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范的過程及方法；其次,對長沙軌道交通2號線工程項(xiàng)目現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析的基礎(chǔ)之上,從項(xiàng)目全壽命周期中總結(jié)各種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,并采用實(shí)證研究法進(jìn)一步來識別有關(guān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,構(gòu)建長沙軌道交通2號線工程項(xiàng)目投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理指標(biāo)體系；再次,運(yùn)用德菲爾法來確定所識別出的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素發(fā)生的概率,采用AHP(層次分析法)來加以確定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的損失相對重要性,從而進(jìn)一步確定該工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級,找出關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素：最后,基于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度量值確定了投資方的決策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、工程招投標(biāo)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn),并運(yùn)用魚刺圖法給出關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的細(xì)化原因,有針對性地提出了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對和監(jiān)控措施。論文主要在以下幾個(gè)方面進(jìn)行了創(chuàng)新性探討：(1)編制長沙軌道交通2號線工程項(xiàng)目投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)正式測量量表。經(jīng)信度和效度檢驗(yàn),效果較好。共包括14個(gè)觀測變量。彌補(bǔ)了現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)的不足,進(jìn)一步豐富了項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論。(2)構(gòu)建長沙軌道交通2號線工程項(xiàng)目投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)體系。該指標(biāo)體系包括3個(gè)一級指標(biāo)、14個(gè)二級指標(biāo),彌補(bǔ)了軌道交通工程領(lǐng)域有關(guān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究的匱乏,具有重要的理論價(jià)值和指導(dǎo)意義。(3)基f風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度量值確定了投資方的決策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、工程招投標(biāo)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn),并運(yùn)用魚刺圖法給出關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的細(xì)化原因,有針對性地提出了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對和監(jiān)控措施,為本項(xiàng)目的順利實(shí)施提供了參考價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:The characteristics of rail transit construction project such as huge investment, long construction period, long investment payback period and high risk hinder the smooth progress of rail transit construction. The main investment body of urban rail transit construction project is the government department, so it can be seen that, Government investment and financing plays an important role in the construction of rail transit, but because of the single subject of investment and financing of rail transit construction project, there are constraints to solve the urban traffic demand, and it is not conducive to the better construction and development of urban rail transit network. In addition, urban rail transit is a quasi-public product with non-exclusive characteristics. It is difficult to make a quick profit on the basis of ticket income and other operating income. The project needs government financial support to maintain its operation. Therefore, the construction of urban rail transit projects must attach importance to investment risk management. Therefore, this paper takes Changsha rail transit line 2 project as the research object, on the basis of systematic risk theory analysis, further identifies and evaluates the investment risk factors of the project. The key risks in the investment of the project are put forward, and the corresponding countermeasures are put forward. The contents of this paper are as follows: firstly, the basic theory of project risk management, the basic knowledge of project risk management, the basic process of project risk management and risk identification are introduced. Secondly, on the basis of analyzing the present situation of Changsha Rail Transit Line 2 project, we summarize the various risk factors from the whole life cycle of the project. And using empirical research method to further identify the relevant risk factors, build Changsha Rail Transit Line 2 project investment risk management index system; again, using the Defel method to determine the identified risk factors occurrence probability, AHP (Analytic hierarchy process) is used to determine the relative importance of risk factors, so as to further determine the risk level of the project, and find out the key risk factors. Finally, based on the risk measure, the decision risk of the investor is determined. The project bidding risk is the key risk, and the detailed reasons of the key risk are given by using the fish-prick diagram method, and the corresponding risk response and monitoring measures are put forward. This paper mainly discusses the innovation in the following aspects: 1) compiling the formal measurement scale of investment risk of Changsha rail transit line 2 project. The reliability and validity test showed that the effect was better. A total of 14 observation variables are included. It makes up for the deficiency of the existing literature and further enriches the theory of project risk management. It constructs the investment risk index system of Changsha Rail Transit Line 2 project. The index system consists of 3 first-grade indexes and 14 second-class indexes, which make up for the lack of research on risk management in the field of rail transit engineering, and have important theoretical value and guiding significance. The project bidding risk is the key risk, and the detailed reasons of the key risk are given by using the fish-prick diagram method, and the corresponding risk response and monitoring measures are put forward, which provides a reference value for the smooth implementation of the project.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F572.3

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