以往的研究表明,證券分析師盈利預(yù)測總體上存在樂觀傾向。本文選取2005 - 2009年國內(nèi)分析師對深市主板和中小板上市公司發(fā)布的盈利預(yù)測作為研究樣本,研究了公司特征的不同是否會(huì)對分析師盈利預(yù)測樂觀程度產(chǎn)生影響。我們按照公司信息披露質(zhì)量和融資需求兩個(gè)維度對公司進(jìn)行分類,并發(fā)現(xiàn):與信息披露質(zhì)量高的公司相比,分析師傾向于對信息披露質(zhì)量較低的公司發(fā)布更加樂觀的盈利預(yù)測。對有較高融資需求的公司,分析師會(huì)發(fā)布更加樂觀的盈利預(yù)測。這兩種因素促成了系統(tǒng)性預(yù)測偏差模式的形成,而這一模式會(huì)隨著預(yù)測期間的縮短而發(fā)生微小的變化。我們研究了明星分析師和普通分析師的盈利預(yù)測行為的差別,發(fā)現(xiàn)兩類分析師所覆蓋的公司類型的相對比例有微小差異。公司特征決定明星分析師發(fā)布的盈利預(yù)測比普通分析師更為準(zhǔn)確還是更為樂觀。與普通分析師相比,明星分析師對信息披露質(zhì)量較高或融資需求較低的公司發(fā)布更加準(zhǔn)確的盈利預(yù)測,而對信息披露質(zhì)量較低或融資需求較高的公司發(fā)布相同樂觀程度的預(yù)測。我們的研究結(jié)果認(rèn)為利益沖突對證券分析師的盈利預(yù)測行為有影響,而盈利預(yù)測偏差模式的形成是分析師維護(hù)與機(jī)構(gòu)投資者關(guān)系、維護(hù)與上市公司管理層關(guān)系以及維護(hù)分析師所在券商...

【文章頁數(shù)】：60 頁

【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士

【文章目錄】：
Abstract
摘要
1 Introduction
    1.1 Background and Significance of the Research
    1.2 Research Method and Idea
    1.3 Innovation and limitation of the Research
        1.3.1 Innovation of the Research
        1.3.2 Limitation of the Research
2 Research Overview of Analysts’Earnings Forecast Bias
    2.1 Definition, Classification and Role of Security Analysts
        2.1.1 Definition of Security Analysts
        2.1.2 Classification of Security Analysts
        2.1.3 Role of Security Analysts
    2.2 Research Overview of Analysts’Earnings Forecast Bias
        2.2.1 Overseas Research Overview of Analysts’Earnings Forecast Bias
        2.2.2 Domestic Research Overview of Analysts’Earnings Forecast Bias
3 Empirical Study of Analysts’Earnings Forecast Bias Pattern
    3.1 Theoretical Analysis and Research Hypothesis
    3.2 Research Design
        3.2.1 Data Source and Sample Selection
        3.2.2 Variable Selection and Model Building
    3.3 Research Result
        3.3.1 Descriptive Statistics
        3.3.2 T-test results
        3.3.3 Multiple Regression Result and Analysis
        3.3.4 The Bias Pattern of Long Forecast Horizon and Short Forecast Horizon
4 Empirical Study of the Difference between Star Analysts and Non-star Analysts’Earnings Forecast Behavior
    4.1 Theoretical Analysis and Research Hypothesis
    4.2 Research Design
        4.2.1 Data Source and Sample Selection
        4.2.2 Variable Selection
    4.3 Research Result
        4.3.1 Star Analysts and Non-star Analysts’Preference for Covered Firms
        4.3.2 Difference between Star Analysts and Non-star Analysts’Forecast Bias
5 Conclusions and Discussion
    5.1 Research Conclusions
    5.2 Discussion on this research
Bibliography
Acknowledgments



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