【摘要】：本文以2011年至2013年的中國股票市場為基礎(chǔ)，試圖通過PEG價值投資模型、DDM模型與FCFF模型對股票樣本估值與價格的背離進行研究，并分析產(chǎn)生背離的原因。選擇的樣本包括銀行業(yè)股票、醫(yī)藥行業(yè)股票與創(chuàng)業(yè)板股票。其中,銀行股票在這3年中凈利潤復(fù)合增長率保持25%左右，但是股價走勢卻與高增長的業(yè)績相背離。相對而言，業(yè)績相似的醫(yī)藥股票走勢卻遠強于銀行股。相對于銀行股，，市盈率較高的創(chuàng)業(yè)板股票價格卻屢創(chuàng)新高，從而與傳統(tǒng)的價值投資模型產(chǎn)生一定的背離。此外，本文還對PEG法的應(yīng)用提出了新的假設(shè)，并分析了這些投資方法對中小投資者的意義與利用價值。 本文的主要結(jié)論：（1）銀行股樣本股價與實際價值存在一定背離，主要原因是由于其盈利能力的下降和機構(gòu)對其未來盈利能力下滑的預(yù)期造成的；（2）創(chuàng)業(yè)板樣本其市盈率水平相比于其他板塊較高,但由于其盈利能力強，其價格走勢與估值可以通過PEG估值法與FCFF模型進行合理解釋。
[Abstract]:Based on the Chinese stock market from 2011 to 2013, this paper attempts to study the deviation between stock sample valuation and price by using PEG value investment model and FCFF model, and analyzes the reasons for the deviation. The selected samples include banking stocks, pharmaceutical stocks and gem stocks. Among them, bank stocks maintained a compound net profit growth rate of about 25 percent over the past three years, but the stock price trend deviated from the high growth results. Comparatively speaking, the performance similar medicine stock trend actually is much stronger than the bank stock. Compared with the bank stocks, the high price-earnings ratio of gem stock prices have repeatedly reached new highs, which has a certain deviation from the traditional value investment model. In addition, this paper also puts forward new assumptions about the application of PEG method, and analyzes the significance and utilization value of these investment methods for small and medium-sized investors. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) there is a certain deviation between the sample stock price and the actual value of the bank stock, which is mainly due to the decline of its profitability and the expectation of its future profitability; (2) the price-earnings ratio of gem sample is higher than that of other plates, but its price trend and valuation can be reasonably explained by PEG valuation method and FCFF model because of its strong profitability.
【學位授予單位】：對外經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.51

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