本文選題：IPO + 影響因素　； 參考：《中國(guó)礦業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：長(zhǎng)期以來，資本市場(chǎng)領(lǐng)域的熱門話題是對(duì)IPO上市首日收益率的研究。過去在股票市場(chǎng)上，IPO首日收益率長(zhǎng)期過高，致使過去的研究大都集中在解釋IPO首日收益率為何表現(xiàn)為正，而對(duì)收益率表現(xiàn)為負(fù)（即IPO上市首日收盤價(jià)跌破其發(fā)行價(jià)格）時(shí)的研究比較少。 但2010年以來的破發(fā)現(xiàn)象打破了我國(guó)長(zhǎng)期以來新股發(fā)行的“潛規(guī)則”，顛覆了既往的實(shí)踐規(guī)律和學(xué)術(shù)研究。大量新股成批地破發(fā)導(dǎo)致了大批申購(gòu)到新股的投資者利益受損等問題的產(chǎn)生，如果長(zhǎng)此下去，定會(huì)影響我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)的和諧發(fā)展。因此，找出新股破發(fā)現(xiàn)象背后的原因、并針對(duì)性地采取一些措施是非常有必要的。 綜上，本文對(duì)“IPO破發(fā)”這一全新現(xiàn)象進(jìn)行了深入的研究。本文選取我國(guó)2010-2012年滬深兩市IPO上市公司為研究樣本，通過理論分析與實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)，得到以下結(jié)論： 首先，通過行業(yè)因素分析，得出中小板和創(chuàng)業(yè)板比主板更容易破發(fā)，制造業(yè)比高新技術(shù)行業(yè)更易破發(fā)。其次，通過一元回歸進(jìn)行初步檢驗(yàn)，研究證明：發(fā)行規(guī)模、上市首日換手率、凈資產(chǎn)收益率、每股凈資產(chǎn)、第一大股東持股比例、公司第二大股東至第十大股東的持股集中度、行業(yè)分類和管理層持股比例與破發(fā)率正相關(guān)，發(fā)行價(jià)、上市首日市盈率、每股發(fā)行費(fèi)用、公司年齡、上市首日中簽率、新股破發(fā)頻率、板塊和資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率與破發(fā)率呈負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系。再次，運(yùn)用進(jìn)入法進(jìn)行多元回歸，結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)：自變量與破發(fā)率的顯著性發(fā)生變化，發(fā)行上市間隔時(shí)間、每股收益、凈利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)率與破發(fā)率的關(guān)系由負(fù)相關(guān)轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)檎嚓P(guān)，與本文的假設(shè)達(dá)成一致，而上市首日中簽率與破發(fā)率的關(guān)系由負(fù)相關(guān)轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)檎嚓P(guān)，這與本文的假設(shè)不一致。筆者推測(cè)這是由于影響IPO上市破發(fā)率的因素眾多，，在其他變量的干擾下，這幾個(gè)變量對(duì)破發(fā)的影響作用弱化。最終運(yùn)用逐步回歸法構(gòu)建相對(duì)最具有解釋力的模型，得出上市首日換手率、發(fā)行市盈率、發(fā)行價(jià)、發(fā)行規(guī)模、發(fā)行前一年的每股收益、板塊、上市首日的市場(chǎng)回報(bào)率、新股破發(fā)頻率、每股發(fā)行費(fèi)用、管理層持股比例和發(fā)行前一年的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率是最顯著的影響因素。在研究結(jié)論的基礎(chǔ)上，最后得出進(jìn)一步完善IPO的相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:For a long time, the hot topic in the field of capital markets is the study of the yield on the first day of IPO. In the past, the IPO first day yield was so high in the stock market that most of the previous research focused on explaining why the IPO first day yield was positive. However, there are few studies on the negative yield (that is, the closing price of IPOs falling below the IPO price). However, the break-up phenomenon since 2010 has broken the "latent rules" of new share issuance in China for a long time. Overturning the past practice and academic research. A large number of new shares break out in batches, which leads to the loss of the interests of a large number of investors who apply for new shares. If this continues in the long run, it will affect the harmonious development of the stock market in our country. Therefore, it is very necessary to find out the reasons behind the IPO break and take some measures accordingly. In summary, this paper makes a deep research on the new phenomenon of IPO break. This paper selects the IPO listed companies of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2010 to 2012 as the research sample, through theoretical analysis and empirical test, obtains the following conclusions: first, through the industry factor analysis, it is concluded that the small and medium-sized board and the growth enterprise board are easier to break than the main board. Manufacturing is easier to break than high-tech. Secondly, through the primary test of univariate regression, the research proves that: the size of the issue, the turnover rate on the first day of listing, the rate of return on net assets, the net assets per share, the shareholding ratio of the first largest shareholder, the concentration degree of the shareholding from the second largest shareholder to the tenth shareholder of the company, Industry classification and management share holding ratio are positively related to breaking rate, issue price, price-earnings ratio on the first day of listing, issue fee per share, company age, successful signing ratio on the first day of listing, breaking frequency of new shares, There is a negative correlation between the plate and the asset-liability ratio and the breaking rate. The results show that the relationship between the independent variables and the breaking rate is significant, the relationship between the interval time, earnings per share, net profit growth rate and break rate changes from negative to positive, and the relationship between the independent variable and the breaking rate is changed from negative to positive, and the relationship between earnings per share, net profit growth and breaking rate is changed from negative to positive. It is agreed with the hypothesis of this paper, but the relationship between the ratio of successful receipt and break rate on the first day of listing is changed from negative to positive correlation, which is inconsistent with the hypothesis of this paper. The author speculated that this is because there are many factors that affect the IPO break rate. Under the interference of other variables, the influence of these variables on the break is weakened. Finally, by using the stepwise regression method to construct the most explanatory model, we can get the first day of listing turnover ratio, issue price-earnings ratio, issue price, issuance scale, earnings per share prior to issue, plate, market rate of return on the first day of listing. The most significant influencing factors are the breaking frequency of new shares, the cost of issuing per share, the proportion of management holding shares and the asset-liability ratio of the year before issuance. On the basis of the conclusion of the study, the paper draws some policy suggestions for further improvement of IPO.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)礦業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F275;F276.5;F832.51

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