發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-06-07 15:27

  本文選題：國(guó)債政策 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)��； 參考：《寧波大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：國(guó)債是彌補(bǔ)財(cái)政赤字的工具，國(guó)債政策是國(guó)家宏觀調(diào)控的有力武器。改革開放幾十年來，我國(guó)國(guó)債規(guī)模的多個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)（國(guó)債負(fù)擔(dān)率、國(guó)債依存度和國(guó)債償債率）呈現(xiàn)快速增長(zhǎng)的趨勢(shì)。1998年和2009年兩次金融危機(jī)后，我國(guó)都果斷的采取了積極的財(cái)政政策，國(guó)債規(guī)模絕對(duì)量成快速增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)。國(guó)債規(guī)模是否處于適度水平，對(duì)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有何影響？這些問題的研究對(duì)充分發(fā)揮國(guó)債政策在宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行中的調(diào)節(jié)作用和積極防范財(cái)政政策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等具有很重要的意義。 本文在總結(jié)和借鑒前人研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建簡(jiǎn)單的理論分析框架，描述述我國(guó)的國(guó)債規(guī)�，F(xiàn)狀后，，對(duì)國(guó)債政策的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)效應(yīng)進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。實(shí)證分析是本文的主體，包括根據(jù)1981-2012年中國(guó)數(shù)據(jù)構(gòu)建一個(gè)VAR模型進(jìn)行時(shí)間系列分析，和根據(jù)1997-2011年美國(guó)、日本、歐洲主要國(guó)家和中國(guó)八國(guó)的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)建立個(gè)體固定效應(yīng)面板模型分析。得出如下結(jié)論： 一，從國(guó)債規(guī)模的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)來看，我國(guó)國(guó)債負(fù)擔(dān)率、償債率和借債率盡管增長(zhǎng)速度很快，接近國(guó)際規(guī)定的警戒線，但是與美國(guó)和日本等發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家相比還是比較低的；另一方面我國(guó)國(guó)債的依存度，即國(guó)債余額占財(cái)政支出比例較美國(guó)和日本等發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家都高。巨大的國(guó)債還本付息額成為財(cái)政收入一大壓力。 二、我國(guó)的國(guó)債政策在短期對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，或者說對(duì)保持我國(guó)GDP的持續(xù)快速增長(zhǎng)有較大的貢獻(xiàn)，國(guó)債發(fā)行更多的用于彌補(bǔ)財(cái)政赤字，擴(kuò)大財(cái)政支出能更好的發(fā)揮國(guó)債融資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)作用；但在長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)，巨大的國(guó)債負(fù)債率不僅不能促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，反而可能導(dǎo)致嚴(yán)重的通貨緊縮； 三，近十多年來，資本存量的增加是促進(jìn)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的最重要因素；GDP的高速增長(zhǎng)并沒有帶來就業(yè)率的同步增長(zhǎng)，我國(guó)就業(yè)率的增長(zhǎng)對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)很低；科技進(jìn)步能夠促進(jìn)各國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，盡管我國(guó)專利申請(qǐng)受理量增長(zhǎng)速度非�？欤珜＠D(zhuǎn)化效率較發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家較低。
[Abstract]:National debt is a tool to make up for the deficit, and national debt policy is a powerful weapon for national macro-control. In the past decades of reform and opening up, many risk indicators of the scale of national debt (debt burden ratio, national debt dependency and debt service rate) in China have shown a trend of rapid growth. After the two financial crises in 1998 and 2009, Our country has adopted the positive financial policy decisively, the national debt scale absolute quantity becomes the fast growth situation. Is the scale of national debt at a moderate level, and what impact does it have on the growth of the national economy? The study of these problems is of great significance to give full play to the regulatory role of the national debt policy in the macroeconomic operation and to actively guard against the risks of the fiscal policy. On the basis of summarizing and referring to the previous research results, this paper constructs a simple theoretical analysis framework, describes the current situation of national debt scale in China, and makes an empirical analysis of the economic growth effect of national debt policy. Empirical analysis is the main body of this paper, including time series analysis based on a VAR model based on Chinese data from 1981 to 2012, and the United States and Japan from 1997 to 2011. The data of major European countries and eight countries of China are analyzed by panel model of individual fixed effects. The following conclusions are drawn: First, judging from the risk index of the scale of national debt, the debt burden rate, debt service rate and borrowing rate of our country are relatively low compared with the developed countries such as the United States and Japan, although the growth rate is fast and close to the warning line stipulated by the international law; On the other hand, the degree of dependence of our national debt, that is, the balance of national debt accounts for the proportion of fiscal expenditure is higher than that of developed countries such as the United States and Japan. The huge amount of debt service has become a major pressure on revenue. Second, in the short term, China's national debt policy has made a greater contribution to economic growth, or to maintaining the sustained and rapid growth of China's GDP. The issuance of treasury bonds has been used more to make up for the fiscal deficit. The expansion of fiscal expenditure can better play the role of national debt financing to promote economic growth, but in the long run, the huge debt ratio of national debt not only can not promote economic growth, but may lead to serious deflation; Thirdly, in the last ten years, the increase of capital stock is the most important factor to promote the economic growth of our country. The rapid growth of GDP does not bring the growth of employment rate synchronously, and the growth of employment rate in our country has a very low contribution to the economic growth of our country. Advances in science and technology can promote the economic growth of various countries. Although the acceptance of patent applications in China is increasing very fast, the efficiency of patent conversion is lower than that of developed countries.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：寧波大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F812.5

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