本文選題：利率市場化 + 一般均衡��； 參考：《上海交通大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：到目前為止，我國利率市場化的基本點還在于擇時逐步放開利率管制，實現(xiàn)利率的隨行就市。這樣做固然非常重要，但還遠遠不夠，因為市場化利率歸根到底是由貨幣供求所決定。如果不能理順有關(guān)貨幣供求的變量，放開管制也未必能使利率波動在期望的位置上，更不要說，央行沒有替代的宏觀調(diào)控抓手，放開的利率還會回到行政管制的軌道上，，所以利率市場化改革一定要改變?nèi)嗣駧虐l(fā)行方式，從央行買外匯轉(zhuǎn)移到買國債上來，貨幣的供給和需求才能歸于國際慣例的軌道，形成一般均衡的穩(wěn)定利率，央行通過買賣國債的公開市場操作就能直接地影響到基準利率，通過基準利率調(diào)控利率水平。 美國和臺灣地區(qū)的利率自由化改革都是走法案先行、謹慎推進的路線，原因在于他們的利率改革站在不同的起點，其中最重要的是他們利率市場化改革的起點與平臺與我們不同。他們買入國債或者央行存單的貨幣發(fā)行方式，這就能在解除利率管制之后，央行貨幣供給的變動能夠直接影響到基準利率。我國利率市場化缺失這樣的前提條件，也就是人民幣供給量的變動與利率之間沒有直接必然的聯(lián)系，市場無法進行充分自主的套利，各市場之間無法形成一般均衡利利差，基準利率不能帶動利率水平變化，放開管制之后，一旦遭遇外來沖擊，市場利率就可能上躥下跳，如果沒有替代行政管制的調(diào)控抓手，我們非常可能因為利率失控而付出沉重的經(jīng)濟代價，或者為穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟又不得不回到行政管制的軌道中去，從而喪失利率市場化改革的成果。 所以中國利率市場化改革，既要放開有關(guān)管制，更要構(gòu)建市場可以充分自主套利，央行可以有效調(diào)控基準利率的平臺，也就是改變?nèi)嗣駧诺陌l(fā)行方式，從買入外匯逐步轉(zhuǎn)軌至買入國債，矯正貨幣供求的異常，使利率系統(tǒng)形成一般均衡。 本文從瓦爾拉斯一般均衡說起，說明充分自主的套利機制對于形成均衡利差的重要意義，然后才有貨幣供給量通過基準利率影響整個利率系統(tǒng)的傳導機制，明確利率市場化的前提和保障就在于建立這樣的利率傳導機制。進而對比美國與臺灣地區(qū)的經(jīng)驗，證明買外匯發(fā)人民幣無法形成一般均衡的市場利差，這就可能阻礙我國利率市場化改革的深化。筆者期望這樣的研究能夠豐富和充實中國利率市場化改革的思路。
[Abstract]:Up to now, the basic point of interest rate marketization in our country is to liberalize the interest rate control step by step and realize the interest rate in the market. This is important, but not enough, because market-based interest rates are determined by money supply and demand in the final analysis. If the variables related to the supply and demand of money cannot be straightened out, deregulation may not necessarily lead to the fluctuation of interest rates in the desired position, not to mention that the central bank does not have a substitute macro-control grip, and the liberalized interest rate will return to the track of administrative control. Therefore, the reform of interest rate marketization must change the way the RMB is issued, from the purchase of foreign exchange by the central bank to the purchase of treasury bonds, so that the supply and demand of money can return to the track of international practice and form a generally balanced and stable interest rate. The central bank can directly affect the benchmark interest rate through the open market operation of buying and selling treasury bonds, and regulate the level of interest rate through the benchmark interest rate. Both the interest rate liberalization reform in the United States and Taiwan has followed the first line of the bill and pushed forward cautiously, because their interest rate reform stands at a different starting point. One of the most important is that their interest rate marketization reform of the starting point and platform is different from us. They buy bonds or the way central bank certificates of deposit are issued so that changes in the central bank's money supply can have a direct impact on benchmark interest rates once interest rates are lifted. The lack of marketization of interest rate in our country is the premise that there is no direct and inevitable connection between the change of RMB supply and interest rate, the market cannot carry out fully autonomous arbitrage, and the general equilibrium interest rate difference can not be formed between the markets. The benchmark interest rate cannot bring about changes in the level of interest rates. After deregulation, once the market interest rates are subject to external shocks, market interest rates may jump and fall. If there is no substitute for the regulation and control of administrative control, It is very likely that we will pay a heavy economic price because the interest rate is out of control, or we will have to return to the track of administrative control in order to stabilize the economy, thus losing the achievement of interest rate marketization reform. Therefore, in China's interest rate marketization reform, we should not only liberalize relevant controls, but also build a platform where the market can fully arbitrage with its own interests, and the central bank can effectively regulate and control the benchmark interest rate, that is, to change the way the RMB is issued. From buying foreign exchange to buying national debt, the anomaly of money supply and demand is corrected, and the interest rate system is in general equilibrium. Starting from the general equilibrium of Valas, this paper explains the importance of a fully autonomous arbitrage mechanism for the formation of equilibrium interest difference, and then there is a monetary supply that affects the transmission mechanism of the whole interest rate system through the benchmark interest rate. The premise and guarantee of interest rate marketization is to establish such an interest rate transmission mechanism. Compared with the experience of the United States and Taiwan, it is proved that buying foreign exchange and issuing RMB can not form a general equilibrium market interest rate difference, which may hinder the deepening of China's interest rate marketization reform. I hope this research can enrich and enrich the thinking of China's interest rate marketization reform.
【學位授予單位】：上海交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.5;F822.2

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