本文選題：短期國際資本 + 中國滬深股市�。� 參考：《廣西大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：直至今日1997年的亞洲金融危機(jī)仍歷歷在目,短期國際資本如猛虎般席卷亞洲多國。隨著國際資本流動自由化的趨勢,國力的強健和經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,中國的資本市場開放是大勢所趨并且步伐會越來越快,吸引的短期國際資本也會越來越多。國內(nèi)對短期國際資本流動及其對經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的研究很多,針對滬深股票市場的影響的研究較少且較為簡單,本文在此基礎(chǔ)上加深研究,希望對開放中的滬深股票市場的平穩(wěn)發(fā)展和應(yīng)對短期國際資本沖擊提供微弱力量。 本文先是從理論部分闡述了短期國際資本的相關(guān)基礎(chǔ)理論及其對股票市場的作用機(jī)理,再深入分析了短期國際資本進(jìn)出中國大陸的原因、渠道和其對滬深股票市場的影響,利用公式短期資本流動額=外匯儲備資產(chǎn)增量-貿(mào)易順差-FDI+隱藏在貿(mào)易順差中的短期國際資本+隱藏在FDI中的短期國際資本測算了流入大陸的短期國際資本的額度,并用于實證分析,采用VAR、ECM、方差分解和脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)等實證分析方法,得出的結(jié)果是：短期國際資本流動會對中國滬深股票市場的價格波動產(chǎn)生一定的正向影響,且周期一般在1年以下,同時并不是加劇我國股市泡沫的因素。最后本文回顧和總結(jié)了國際上和發(fā)展中國家應(yīng)對短期國際資本流動的對策,結(jié)合之前的理論分析和實證結(jié)果,對中國如何應(yīng)對短期國際資本流動所帶來的沖擊提出了一些建議。
[Abstract]:Today, the Asian financial crisis of 1997 is still clear, short-term international capital like Tigers across Asia. With the trend of liberalization of international capital flow, the strong national strength and the development of economy, the opening of China's capital market is the general trend and the pace will be faster and faster, and the short-term international capital will be attracted more and more. There are many domestic researches on short-term international capital flows and their impact on the economy, while the research on the impact of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is relatively few and simple. This paper deepens the research on this basis. It is hoped to provide a weak force for the smooth development of the open stock market in Shanghai and Shenzhen and for dealing with short-term international capital shocks. This paper first expounds the basic theory of short-term international capital and its mechanism of action on the stock market from the theoretical part, and then deeply analyzes the reasons, channels and influence of short-term international capital on the stock market in Shanghai and Shenzhen, and then analyzes the reasons of short-term international capital entering and leaving the mainland of China, and its influence on the stock market of Shanghai and Shenzhen. Using the formula of short-term capital flow = increment of foreign exchange reserve assets, the short-term international capital hidden in the trade surplus, which is hidden in the trade surplus, the short-term international capital hidden in FDI, the amount of short-term international capital flowing into the mainland is calculated. And it is used in empirical analysis, using VARN ECM, variance decomposition and impulse response function. The results are as follows: the short-term international capital flow will have a positive impact on the price volatility of China's stock market in Shanghai and Shenzhen. And the cycle is generally less than one year, at the same time is not exacerbated by the stock market bubble factors. Finally, this paper reviews and summarizes the countermeasures of international and developing countries to deal with the short-term international capital flows. Combined with the previous theoretical analysis and empirical results, some suggestions on how to deal with the impact of short-term international capital flows in China are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣西大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F831.6;F832.51

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