本文選題：轉(zhuǎn)型 + 房地產(chǎn)　； 參考：《上海交通大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：2014年開始的新一輪房地產(chǎn)調(diào)整周期與2008、2012年相比存在較大不同,流動(dòng)性層面的變化將愈發(fā)貼近于整體經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的背景,M2增速過快與過低將被一定區(qū)間內(nèi)的穩(wěn)定所替代,而房地產(chǎn)的行業(yè)政策也將逐步回歸市場(chǎng)化,由此導(dǎo)致的區(qū)域城市分割與企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)差異將會(huì)不斷強(qiáng)化,而四大因素結(jié)合在一起,將使得房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的演繹更加回歸真實(shí)需求的本質(zhì),也就是人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化所決定的工業(yè)化演進(jìn)周期變局。而根據(jù)人口結(jié)構(gòu)大致估算可知,國(guó)內(nèi)后續(xù)房地產(chǎn)發(fā)展依賴于改善型需求帶來新一輪增長(zhǎng)可能要等到2020年以后,那么在目前這種房地產(chǎn)銷量、價(jià)格增速?gòu)椥灾鸩较乱频某跏茧A段,房地產(chǎn)A股的股權(quán)價(jià)值在2010年之后就處于相比此前周期明顯的較低位置,預(yù)計(jì)在轉(zhuǎn)型期這種相對(duì)低位會(huì)維持較長(zhǎng)時(shí)間,以此,房地產(chǎn)A股如何獲得超額收益,將更多的取決于并購(gòu)價(jià)值體現(xiàn)。在深刻解析2014年上半年金地集團(tuán)、金融街、新黃浦股價(jià)表現(xiàn)異常的同時(shí),本文借鑒了美國(guó)上市公司中Pulte Homes、Centex合并和萬豪集團(tuán)的業(yè)務(wù)分拆兩大案例,認(rèn)為當(dāng)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)進(jìn)入轉(zhuǎn)型期相對(duì)低估成為一種常態(tài)時(shí),并購(gòu)價(jià)值理應(yīng)能夠展現(xiàn)為股價(jià)上的超額收益,當(dāng)然,這種并購(gòu)價(jià)值一方面需要上市公司本身處于相對(duì)較低的估值水平,另一方面則是并購(gòu)價(jià)值是否能最終衍生出新的增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力或者模式。圍繞此出發(fā),本文以行業(yè)整合者、有望強(qiáng)強(qiáng)聯(lián)合、房地產(chǎn)業(yè)務(wù)之外特殊價(jià)值三項(xiàng)刪選標(biāo)準(zhǔn),認(rèn)為在新常態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速和房地產(chǎn)銷量趨于下移的過程中,萬科、招商、榮盛發(fā)展、泛�？毓伞㈥懠易�、張江高科、華僑城符合并購(gòu)價(jià)值最終展現(xiàn)為股價(jià)超額收益的潛在標(biāo)的。另外,本文的創(chuàng)新在于通過研究比較房地產(chǎn)A股如何在新常態(tài)下改變現(xiàn)有市場(chǎng)定價(jià)的模式,更重要的是在當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)中樞面臨回落,而普遍周期性行業(yè)都會(huì)經(jīng)歷估值相對(duì)較低的局面時(shí),提出了一種通過合理展現(xiàn)并購(gòu)價(jià)值從而帶動(dòng)一部分周期股股價(jià)重估的路徑。
[Abstract]:The new real estate adjustment cycle that began in 2014 is quite different from 2008. The change in liquidity level will be closer to the background of the overall economic transformation. M 2 growth too fast and too low will be replaced by stability in a certain range. And the industry policy of real estate will return to marketization step by step. As a result, the differences between regional urban segmentation and enterprise management will be continuously strengthened, and the four major factors will be combined together. It will make the deduction of real estate industry return to the essence of real demand, that is, the change of industrialization evolution cycle determined by the change of population structure. According to the approximate estimate of the population structure, the following domestic real estate development depends on improved demand to bring a new round of growth after 2020. Well, in the initial stage of the gradual decline in the current sales volume of real estate, the elasticity of price growth is gradually moving down. The equity value of real estate A shares has been significantly lower after 2010 than in the previous cycle. It is expected that this relatively low level will be maintained for a longer period of time during the transition period, so that how can real estate A shares get excess returns? Will depend more on M & A value embodiment. While deeply analyzing the abnormal performance of Jindi Group, Financial Street and New Huangpu stock price in the first half of 2014, this paper draws lessons from the two major cases of Pulte HomesCon Centex merger and Marriott Group business division in the United States listed companies. It is believed that when the real estate industry enters the transition period, the relative undervaluation of the real estate industry becomes the norm, and the M & A value should be shown as the excess return on the stock price. Of course, this kind of M & A value needs the listed company to be at a relatively low valuation level on the one hand. On the other hand, whether the value of M & A can ultimately derive a new growth momentum or model. Starting from this, this paper, by three deleted criteria of industry integrator, hopeful strong combination, special value outside real estate business, believes that in the process of the new normal economic growth rate and real estate sales tend to move downward, Vanke, investment, prosperity and development. Pan Hai Holdings, Lu Jiazui, Zhang Jiang Gaoke and overseas Chinese City meet the value of M & A as potential targets for the ultimate excess return on stock prices. In addition, the innovation of this paper is to compare the real estate A shares in the new normal how to change the existing market pricing model, more importantly, in the current economic growth center facing a decline. When the general cyclical industries experience relatively low valuations, a way to revalue some cyclical stocks by reasonably displaying the value of mergers and acquisitions is put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23;F832.51

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本文編號(hào)：1832852