本文選題：央行票據(jù) + 外匯干預(yù)�。� 參考：《南京師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：本文基于我國持續(xù)數(shù)年的國際收支雙順差實(shí)際,對由此而展開的貨幣沖銷操作的有效性展開理論研究。引言部分首先對我國央行大規(guī)模開展“外匯干預(yù)—貨幣沖銷”的這一邏輯關(guān)系做出相應(yīng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)解釋,進(jìn)而文獻(xiàn)綜述部分詳細(xì)回顧國內(nèi)外學(xué)者對貨幣沖銷問題的不同理論觀點(diǎn),主要包括貨幣沖銷概念的界定、貨幣沖銷有效性這一命題的討論、貨幣沖銷成本的衡量、貨幣沖銷開展以后對其他宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的影響等方面。在此之后,簡單回顧自上世紀(jì)90年代以來我國央行所開展的貨幣沖銷實(shí)踐,并對不同歷史階段所使用的貨幣政策工具的優(yōu)勢和不足加以介紹。此后,在理論推導(dǎo)部分,借助資產(chǎn)組合模型以及央行的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表分析通過發(fā)行央行票據(jù)開展沖銷操作的作用原理和機(jī)制。實(shí)證部分,我們通過時(shí)間序列計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的分析方法對央行票據(jù)的沖銷有效性命題進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明,央行票據(jù)的發(fā)行由外匯占款的被動增加決定,并通過凍結(jié)基礎(chǔ)貨幣的方式數(shù)倍的減少貨幣供給量,能起到維持匯率穩(wěn)定的作用；從對M1、M2的比較來說,央行票據(jù)對M2口徑的沖銷效果在時(shí)間和幅度上優(yōu)于M1,不過相比M1,對M2的沖銷存在一定的作用時(shí)滯,表明央行更看重的貨幣政策目標(biāo)是M2；此外,央行票據(jù)的發(fā)行能在滯后一定時(shí)期后顯著影響我國的市場利率,而推高的市場利率將吸引國際投機(jī)資本的進(jìn)入,人民幣幣值處于升值狀態(tài),貨幣沖銷壓力隨即提高,由此筆者認(rèn)為當(dāng)前對于資本賬戶的開放仍需審慎推進(jìn)。實(shí)證結(jié)果總體顯示,我國的央行票據(jù)不是一種完美的政策工具,不過基本達(dá)到了對沖多余流動性的目的,在特定國情下,其仍是我國央行短期內(nèi)的最佳選擇。此后,我們基于當(dāng)前我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長方式轉(zhuǎn)變的特殊國情,將宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)主體劃分為內(nèi)向型、外向型部門兩種,分析對外貿(mào)易開展以后的貨幣流動路徑、分析央行票據(jù)的發(fā)行對不同經(jīng)濟(jì)主體的影響,推倒出的結(jié)論為央行票據(jù)的發(fā)行會導(dǎo)致流動性收緊,不利于我國部分中小企業(yè)的融資,進(jìn)而不能促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長方式的轉(zhuǎn)變。最后,文章從完善金融體系的市場化運(yùn)行以減輕開展貨幣沖銷的壓力；完善央行票據(jù)自身的發(fā)行期限、發(fā)行數(shù)量；長期內(nèi)逐步將貨幣政策工具過渡到國債以及逐步推進(jìn)數(shù)量型沖銷工具的創(chuàng)新以及開展價(jià)格型沖銷等方面提出了相應(yīng)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Based on the practice of double surplus of balance of payments in China for several years, this paper makes a theoretical study on the effectiveness of monetary sterilisation operation.At first, the introduction explains the logic relation of "foreign exchange intervention-money sterilisation" by the central bank on a large scale, and then reviews in detail the different theoretical viewpoints of scholars at home and abroad on the issue of currency sterilisation.It mainly includes the definition of the concept of monetary sterilisation, the discussion of the proposition of the validity of monetary sterilisation, the measurement of the cost of monetary sterilisation, and the influence of monetary sterilisation on other macroeconomic variables.After that, the paper briefly reviews the practice of monetary sterilisation carried out by the central bank since the 1990s, and introduces the advantages and disadvantages of the monetary policy tools used in different historical stages.Then, in the theoretical derivation part, with the aid of the portfolio model and the balance sheet analysis of the central bank, the working principle and mechanism of sterilizing operation by issuing central bank bills are discussed.In the empirical part, we use the time series econometrics to analyze the validity proposition of the central bank bill sterilisation.The empirical results show that the issuance of central bank notes is determined by the passive increase of foreign exchange holdings, and the amount of money supply can be reduced several times by freezing the base money, which can maintain the stability of the exchange rate.The sterilizing effect of the central bank paper on M2 caliber is better than that of M1 in time and range. However, compared with M1, there is a certain time lag in the elimination of M2, indicating that the monetary policy target that the central bank values more is M2; in addition,The issuance of central bank bills can significantly affect the market interest rate of our country after a certain period of lag, and the higher market interest rate will attract the entry of international speculative capital, the value of RMB is in a state of appreciation, and the pressure of currency sterilisation will then increase.Therefore, the author thinks that the current capital account opening still needs to advance prudently.The empirical results show that the central bank paper is not a perfect policy tool, but it has basically achieved the purpose of hedging excess liquidity, and it is still the best choice for the central bank in the short term under the specific national conditions.Since then, on the basis of the special national conditions of the transformation of our country's economic growth mode, we have divided the macroeconomic main body into two types: introverted and extroverted sectors. We have analyzed the monetary flow path after the development of foreign trade.This paper analyzes the influence of the issuance of central bank bills on different economic subjects and draws the conclusion that the issuance of central bank bills will lead to the tightening of liquidity, which is not conducive to the financing of some small and medium-sized enterprises in China, and will not promote the transformation of economic growth mode.Finally, the paper improves the market-oriented operation of the financial system in order to reduce the pressure to carry out monetary sterilisation, perfect the issuance period and quantity of the central bank bill itself.In the long term, the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward in terms of the gradual transition of monetary policy tools to national debt, the gradual promotion of the innovation of quantitative sterilisation tools and the development of price-based sterilisation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.31;F832.51

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