本文選題：城投債 + 信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)��； 參考：《東北師范大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著我國城鎮(zhèn)化步伐的加速,城市基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)的需求量大幅增長,受到我國現(xiàn)行法律法規(guī)的諸多限制,地方政府積極拓展新型投融資渠道,成立城投公司發(fā)行城投債就是其中一種重要渠道,以滿足地方政府經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)的需要。伴隨著城投債發(fā)行規(guī)模的爆發(fā)式增長,其信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)受到人們的廣泛關(guān)注,如何有效規(guī)避城投債的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn),加強(qiáng)相應(yīng)的監(jiān)管措施顯得尤為重要。本文通過理論研究分析和實(shí)證模型檢驗(yàn)來說明我國城投債的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn),為進(jìn)一步規(guī)范我國城投債市場發(fā)展,為優(yōu)化完善我國城投債的監(jiān)督管理機(jī)制提供切實(shí)可行的政策建議。第一章是引言部分,本論文是基于分稅制改革和城鎮(zhèn)化加速的宏觀背景之下,結(jié)合目前中國債券市場現(xiàn)狀,有效規(guī)避城投債信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn),保證其健康有序可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要的研究意義和研究價(jià)值。通過閱讀國內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn),總結(jié)其核心觀點(diǎn)和有價(jià)值的研究成果。之后簡要概述本文的研究內(nèi)容和研究方法,梳理文章整體結(jié)構(gòu)框架安排。最后從三個(gè)方面闡述本文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn),并說明不足之處期望日后不斷進(jìn)行完善。第二章是我國城投債發(fā)展的概述,首先介紹了我國城投債的概念及其四個(gè)主要特征,之后敘述我國城投債產(chǎn)生的三大宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)背景,最后以2008年為重要分界點(diǎn)來分析其發(fā)展歷程。第三章重點(diǎn)是對我國城投債信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的情況進(jìn)行詳細(xì)剖析,從企業(yè)債和政府債兩個(gè)維度定義城投債的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn),從城投債種類、期限、信用評級、增新方式、地區(qū)分布等五個(gè)角度描述其發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,從政府、城投公司和制度因素等幾方面尋找引致城投債發(fā)生信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的根本原因。第四章是運(yùn)用計(jì)量統(tǒng)計(jì)方法為我國城投債信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)做實(shí)證模型研究,簡要對比分析四種常用的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的測度模型之后,闡述KMV模型的研究分析步驟,通過構(gòu)建合適的KMV模型對重慶市城投債的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)做實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)分析。第五章是在總結(jié)城投債的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)基礎(chǔ)上,從四個(gè)方面對增強(qiáng)我國城投債的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范與管理提供對策和建議。
[Abstract]:With the accelerated pace of urbanization in China, the demand for urban infrastructure construction has increased substantially, and the local governments have actively expanded new investment and financing channels due to many restrictions imposed by the current laws and regulations of our country.The establishment of city investment company is one of the important channels to meet the needs of local government economic construction.With the explosive growth of the issuing scale of city investment debt, people pay more attention to its credit risk. How to avoid the credit risk of city investment bond effectively and strengthen the corresponding supervision measures is particularly important.Through theoretical analysis and empirical model test, this paper explains the credit risk of our country's city investment debt, and provides practical policy suggestions for further standardizing the development of our country's city investment bond market and optimizing and perfecting the supervision and management mechanism of our country's city investment debt.The first chapter is the introduction part. This paper is based on the macro background of tax sharing reform and urbanization acceleration, combining with the current situation of China's bond market, effectively circumventing the credit risk of urban bond investment.To ensure its healthy and orderly sustainable development has important research significance and research value.Through reading the relevant literature at home and abroad, summarize its core views and valuable research results.Then it briefly summarizes the research content and research methods, combing the overall structure of the article.At last, this paper expounds the innovation point from three aspects, and explains the deficiency expectation to be improved continuously in the future.The second chapter is an overview of the development of China's city investment debt. Firstly, it introduces the concept and four main characteristics of our country's city investment debt, and then describes the three macroeconomic backgrounds of our country's city investment debt.Finally, this paper analyzes its development course by taking 2008 as an important dividing point.The third chapter focuses on the detailed analysis of the credit risk of the city investment bond in China. It defines the credit risk of the city investment debt from the two dimensions of enterprise debt and government debt, and defines the credit risk of the city investment debt from the types, duration, credit rating, and new ways of the city investment bond.Regional distribution and other five angles to describe the development of its current situation, from the government, city investment companies and institutional factors to find out the basic causes of credit risk caused by city investment debt.The fourth chapter is to use the econometric statistical method to do empirical research on the credit risk of city investment debt in China. After comparing and analyzing the four commonly used credit risk measurement models, the paper expounds the research and analysis steps of the KMV model.This paper analyzes the credit risk of Chongqing City Investment debt by constructing an appropriate KMV model.On the basis of summarizing the credit risk of city investment debt, the fifth chapter provides countermeasures and suggestions to strengthen the credit risk prevention and management of city investment debt in China from four aspects.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.51

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