本文選題：財務(wù)風(fēng)險變動　切入點(diǎn)：影響因素　出處：《浙江財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來，伴隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化發(fā)展的腳步不斷加快，給企業(yè)帶來機(jī)遇的同時也使企業(yè)面臨著更大的挑戰(zhàn)。而我國由于資本市場還不夠成熟以及股市的劇烈波動，被冠以ST或*ST的上市公司的數(shù)量不斷增多，更加引起股權(quán)人、債權(quán)人及相關(guān)利益者的關(guān)注。對于特別處理上市公司財務(wù)風(fēng)險進(jìn)一步變動趨勢，就變得至關(guān)重要，這也是本文研究的重點(diǎn)。通過準(zhǔn)確分析影響特別處理上市公司財務(wù)風(fēng)險變動趨勢的主要因素，將有利于管理者改善經(jīng)營方式、投資者做出正確判斷、銀行發(fā)放貸款以及監(jiān)管者有效完善監(jiān)管措施。 本文的技術(shù)路線在于：第一、緒論部分。主要簡單介紹本文的研究背景、意義、方法及本文的研究框架與創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)；第二、文獻(xiàn)綜述。主要借鑒國內(nèi)外企業(yè)財務(wù)困境預(yù)測研究文獻(xiàn)，從財務(wù)困境成因及企業(yè)財務(wù)困境研究方法兩方面來闡述，為本文進(jìn)一步研究打下文獻(xiàn)基礎(chǔ)；第三、理論分析。借鑒國內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)構(gòu)建相關(guān)財務(wù)風(fēng)險研究模型所選取的變量，分別從企業(yè)償債能力、盈利能力、現(xiàn)金流量及營運(yùn)能力四個方面共選取16個財務(wù)指標(biāo)，并借鑒相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)選取行業(yè)指數(shù)與利率兩個經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)變量，定性的分析這些變量是如何對特別處理上市公司財務(wù)風(fēng)險變動造成影響的；第四、實(shí)證分析。主要借鑒Tinoco, Nick Wilson(2013)研究思路，首先，研究設(shè)計，主要包括樣本的選取、變量的確定及模型的構(gòu)建等內(nèi)容；然后，將初步選擇的16個財務(wù)指標(biāo)作獨(dú)立性檢驗(yàn)與Pearson相關(guān)性檢驗(yàn)，最終確定資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率、營運(yùn)資金與總負(fù)債比、股東權(quán)益利潤率、營業(yè)利潤率、全部資產(chǎn)現(xiàn)金回收率、債務(wù)保障率、應(yīng)付賬款比率及股東權(quán)益/總負(fù)債共8個財務(wù)指標(biāo)，再加上前文提到的行業(yè)指數(shù)、利率兩個宏觀變量指標(biāo)來共同構(gòu)建面板Logit模型，采用Stata軟件來具體分析，通過Hausman檢驗(yàn)來確定固定效應(yīng)模型；最后，進(jìn)行模型預(yù)測檢驗(yàn)與穩(wěn)健性檢驗(yàn)；第五、研究結(jié)論與研究局限性。根據(jù)理論分析與實(shí)證分析相結(jié)合的方法得到資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率、營運(yùn)資金與總負(fù)債比、營業(yè)利潤率、行業(yè)指數(shù)、利率及某些年份對特別處理上市公司財務(wù)風(fēng)險變動造成顯著影響的結(jié)論，并在相關(guān)結(jié)論的基礎(chǔ)上提出一些建議。文章最后部分點(diǎn)明本文的局限之處，并對后續(xù)研究提出展望。 本文的特色之處在于：第一、國內(nèi)外很多學(xué)者在研究企業(yè)財務(wù)風(fēng)險方面的內(nèi)容時，往往是將企業(yè)簡單的分為ST公司和非ST公司來對企業(yè)的財務(wù)困境進(jìn)行監(jiān)測。而本文將特別處理上市公司財務(wù)風(fēng)險進(jìn)行級別劃分，，研究已陷入財務(wù)困境的特別處理上市公司的財務(wù)風(fēng)險進(jìn)一步趨勢變化（惡化或者好轉(zhuǎn)）。第二、以往文獻(xiàn)主要是從財務(wù)角度來分析公司從正常變?yōu)樘貏e處理的財務(wù)影響因素，構(gòu)建和改進(jìn)財務(wù)預(yù)警模型。而本文構(gòu)建了考慮宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)時滯性影響和財務(wù)指標(biāo)的特別處理上市公司財務(wù)風(fēng)險變動影響因素分析模型，為剖析企業(yè)財務(wù)風(fēng)險提供新的視角、模型和方法。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the development of economic globalization is accelerating the pace, bring opportunities but also make enterprises face greater challenges. Because of our capital market is not mature and the stock market volatility, known as the ST or *ST of the number of listed companies is increasing, more equity, creditor and the stakeholders concerned. For the special treatment of financial risk of listed companies further trend becomes critical, which is the focus of this study. The special treatment the main factors of financial risk trend changes of listed companies through accurate analysis, will help managers to improve operation mode, investors make the right judgments, bank loans and regulators effectively improve the regulatory measures.
The technical route of this paper is: first, the introduction part. This paper briefly introduces the research background, significance, research framework and innovation methods and the literature review.; second, mainly from the domestic and foreign enterprises financial distress prediction research literature, from the two aspects of the causes of financial distress and corporate financial distress research method to explain, for this further study lay the foundation of literature; third, theoretical analysis. From domestic and foreign literature related research of constructing financial risk model of selected variables, respectively, from the profitability, solvency of enterprises, the four aspects of the cash flow and the ability of operating a total of 16 selected financial indicators, and the related literature from the industry index and the interest rate of two economic indicators the analysis of qualitative variables, these variables are of special treatment listed companies financial risk caused by changes in the impact; fourth, empirical analysis. The main reference Tino Co, Nick Wilson (2013) first of all, research ideas, research design, including sample selection, construction of content determination and model variables; then, correlation test and Pearson test the independence of the 16 financial indicators will be the initial choice, and ultimately determine the rate of assets and liabilities, working capital and the ratio of total liabilities to shareholders. The interests of profit margin, operating profit rate, total assets cash recovery rate, debt guarantee rate, accounts payable ratio and equity / total liabilities total of 8 financial indicators, coupled with the previously mentioned industry index, interest rate two macro variables to build the panel Logit model, analyzed by Stata software, to fixed effects model by Hausman test; finally, the model prediction test and robustness test; fifth, the research conclusions and research limitations. According to the method of combining theoretical analysis and empirical analysis of the assets The debt ratio, working capital and the ratio of total liabilities, operating margins, industry index, interest rate and some years of special treatment of listed companies financial risk changes caused a significant impact on the conclusions, and puts forward some suggestions based on the conclusion. The last part of the article points out the limitations of this paper, and put forward the prospects for future research.
The feature of this paper lies in: first, many scholars at home and abroad in the research of the financial risks of enterprise content, the enterprise is often simply divided into ST and non ST companies to financial distress of enterprises. This paper will monitor and special treatment of listed companies financial risk in financial risk classification, especially further Trend Study on the treatment of already listed companies in financial distress changes (deterioration or better). Second, the literature is mainly to analyze the company from normal to financial influencing factors of special treatment from a financial point of view, to build and improve the financial early-warning model constructed in this paper. And considering the special treatment of macroeconomic and financial indicators of the impact of time delay analysis model of influence factors of financial risk in listed companies, provide a new perspective for the analysis of enterprise financial risk, model and method.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.51;F275

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