本文選題：地方政府性債務(wù)　切入點(diǎn)：地方政府負(fù)責(zé)債務(wù)　出處：《浙江工商大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：回顧我國(guó)最近二十年經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展歷程,地方政府性債務(wù)發(fā)揮著重要作用,由最先彌補(bǔ)財(cái)政赤字的功能逐漸演變成為地方經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過(guò)程中不可或缺的財(cái)力支持,是我國(guó)地方經(jīng)濟(jì)高速發(fā)展的有力支撐。然而,2008年國(guó)際金融危機(jī)爆發(fā),為了降低其對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的負(fù)面影響,中央政府制定了“四萬(wàn)億”投資計(jì)劃以刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,可是其中大部分資金需要由地方政府予以配套,導(dǎo)致地方政府性債務(wù)在短時(shí)間內(nèi)迅速膨脹。根據(jù)我國(guó)《預(yù)算法》的規(guī)定,地方政府并沒(méi)有發(fā)行債券的權(quán)利。那么如此龐大的債務(wù)規(guī)模從何而來(lái),其又是如何運(yùn)作的皆游走在政府預(yù)算收支監(jiān)管之外,使得中央對(duì)地方政府的債務(wù)問(wèn)題敏感起來(lái)。2013年,國(guó)家為摸清地方政府性債務(wù)基本情況由審計(jì)署聯(lián)合相關(guān)部門(mén)對(duì)我國(guó)地方政府性債務(wù)進(jìn)行了一次較為全面的摸底排查,結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)地方政府性債務(wù)存在比較嚴(yán)重的問(wèn)題,國(guó)家對(duì)其債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的論調(diào)是基本可控,但是各地方政府的債務(wù)又具有自身特點(diǎn),怎樣有針對(duì)性的加強(qiáng)對(duì)債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的評(píng)估、預(yù)防和管理是我國(guó)目前經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)較快發(fā)展必須面對(duì)和解決的一大現(xiàn)實(shí)問(wèn)題,所以,本課題基于財(cái)政可持續(xù)性視角的地方政府性債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究充滿(mǎn)了強(qiáng)烈的時(shí)代意義和現(xiàn)實(shí)價(jià)值。 不少專(zhuān)家學(xué)者已經(jīng)在地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)領(lǐng)域的研究取得了豐碩成果,本文對(duì)地方政府性債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的研究是建立在前輩研究成果基礎(chǔ)上,從財(cái)政可持續(xù)性的視角對(duì)其展開(kāi)分析,主要工作和研究?jī)r(jià)值體現(xiàn)在以下幾個(gè)方面： 一是傳統(tǒng)對(duì)地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的研究范圍要不是地方政府直接債務(wù)要不是地方政府或有債務(wù),而本文將兩者有機(jī)統(tǒng)一起來(lái),從而實(shí)現(xiàn)真正意義上的地方政府性債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究。根據(jù)審計(jì)報(bào)告對(duì)政府債務(wù)三類(lèi)劃分標(biāo)準(zhǔn),政府性債務(wù)包含政府負(fù)有償還責(zé)任的債務(wù)、政府負(fù)有擔(dān)保責(zé)任的債務(wù)和政府可能承擔(dān)一定救助責(zé)任的債務(wù),而傳統(tǒng)意義上的政府債務(wù)僅是指政府負(fù)有償還責(zé)任的債務(wù),或有債務(wù)指后兩類(lèi)債務(wù)。 二是分析視角的不同,本文從財(cái)政可持續(xù)性角度分析債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。鑒于對(duì)債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的不同理解和評(píng)估標(biāo)準(zhǔn),可能會(huì)對(duì)債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估得出不一樣的結(jié)論。本文對(duì)地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的理解是：并不是需要地方政府在一定時(shí)間內(nèi)償還所有的債務(wù),而是能不能在需要償還債務(wù)時(shí)籌集到所需的資金,可以通過(guò)借新還舊等途徑使其債務(wù)成為“永續(xù)不還”之債,只要能保證財(cái)政具有可持續(xù)性,不至于經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展和社會(huì)的穩(wěn)定受到損害,地方政府就不存在債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 三是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)體系的建立,圍繞財(cái)政可持續(xù)性原則構(gòu)建了以資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表為核心的靜態(tài)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)和以跨期預(yù)算約束為基礎(chǔ)的動(dòng)態(tài)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)體系。第一層次是債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)初判斷,通過(guò)幾個(gè)單指標(biāo)值與國(guó)際風(fēng)險(xiǎn)警戒線(xiàn)作比較以評(píng)價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。第二層次是對(duì)地方財(cái)政可持續(xù)性的靜態(tài)分析即地方政府凈資產(chǎn)判斷風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。當(dāng)?shù)胤秸畠糍Y產(chǎn)為正說(shuō)明無(wú)債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),為負(fù)時(shí)說(shuō)明地方政府已經(jīng)資不抵債,存在債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。第三層次對(duì)地方財(cái)政可持續(xù)性的動(dòng)態(tài)分析進(jìn)行債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)判斷。財(cái)政可持續(xù)則無(wú)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),反之,則存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。也就是說(shuō)；在一定時(shí)期內(nèi),即使政府無(wú)力減少債務(wù)總額,但能夠通過(guò)正常渠道籌集資金支付本息,那么債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也仍然處于可控范圍內(nèi)。 四是對(duì)地方政府性債務(wù)中或有債務(wù)按照投資項(xiàng)目是否產(chǎn)生現(xiàn)金流以及誰(shuí)支配現(xiàn)金流進(jìn)行切割,得到地方政府負(fù)責(zé)債務(wù),作為地方政府性債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的重要基礎(chǔ)。在地方政府三類(lèi)不同性質(zhì)的債務(wù)中,地方政府所需承擔(dān)的責(zé)任是不一樣的,在我們對(duì)政府性債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析時(shí),不能簡(jiǎn)單的將三類(lèi)債務(wù)直接加總,需要一個(gè)中間橋梁,本文將通過(guò)地方政府負(fù)責(zé)債務(wù)實(shí)現(xiàn)地方政府性債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析。 五是在建立地方政府資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表評(píng)價(jià)債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí),為更加真實(shí)的反映其評(píng)價(jià)效果,本文對(duì)地方政府資產(chǎn)和地方政府負(fù)債作了全新的詮釋。負(fù)債定義為需要由地方政府負(fù)責(zé)的債務(wù),而資產(chǎn)在文中定義為地方政府可用于償債的資產(chǎn)而非全部各類(lèi)資產(chǎn)。 本文共設(shè)五個(gè)章節(jié)對(duì)地方政府性債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行論述。第一章是緒論。主要包括文章的選題背景、研究意義以及研究思路、方法、創(chuàng)新和不足。第二章是地方政府性債務(wù)現(xiàn)狀分析。本章對(duì)地方政府債務(wù)和地方政府性債務(wù)兩個(gè)概念的內(nèi)涵進(jìn)行了區(qū)別分析并對(duì)地方政府性債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行定義；比較分析了我國(guó)30個(gè)地方政府性債務(wù)基本情況,并從資金供求矛盾角度討論地方政府性債務(wù)形成的根本性原因。第三章是地方政府性債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方法與選擇。介紹了關(guān)于債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的一些方法,在此基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建了本文評(píng)價(jià)債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的三個(gè)層次體系。第四章是地方政府性債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)實(shí)證分析——以江蘇省為例。測(cè)算了江蘇省地方政府負(fù)責(zé)債務(wù)規(guī)模,結(jié)合江蘇省2013年最新政府性債務(wù)資料按照第三章債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的三個(gè)層次逐級(jí)對(duì)其債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行分析。第五章是結(jié)論及建議。 通過(guò)本文的研究得到如下結(jié)論：第一,地方財(cái)政是否可持續(xù)是本文判別債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)存在與否的標(biāo)準(zhǔn),不僅需要從靜態(tài)進(jìn)行分析還需從動(dòng)態(tài)進(jìn)行考量。第二,江蘇省地方政府不存在債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),債務(wù)水平處于可控范圍之內(nèi)。第三,地方政府性債務(wù)規(guī)模在債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究中具有重要的意義,但不能被其表面數(shù)字所蒙蔽。第四,就債務(wù)論債務(wù)是沒(méi)有意義的,債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的評(píng)估需要結(jié)合地方政府可償債資金來(lái)分析,需要建立能反映地方政府真正償債能力的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表。
[Abstract]:In 2013 , in order to reduce its negative impact on China ' s economy , the central government has set up " four trillion " investment plans to stimulate the development of local government . However , in 2013 , the central government has set up " four trillion " investment plans to stimulate the development of local government .

Many experts and scholars have achieved fruitful results in the research of local government debt risk . The research on the risk of local government debt is based on the previous research results . From the perspective of financial sustainability , the main work and research value are reflected in the following aspects :

One is that the traditional research scope of the local government debt risk is not the local government direct debt is not the local government or the debt , but the paper combines the two organically , thus realizing the real sense of the local government debt risk research . According to the audit report to the government debt three kinds of standards , the government debt includes the debt of the government to repay the responsibility , the government has the obligation to bear the responsibility and the government may bear the debt of certain relief responsibility , but the traditional government debt only refers to the government has the obligation to pay the responsibility , or the debt to the latter two types of debt .

Second , from the perspective of analysis , this paper analyzes the debt risk from the perspective of financial sustainability . In view of the different understanding and evaluation criteria of debt risk , it is possible to draw different conclusions on the debt risk assessment .

Three is the establishment of the risk evaluation system , the static risk evaluation based on the balance sheet and the dynamic risk evaluation system based on the cross - period budget constraint are constructed around the principle of financial sustainability . The first level is the static analysis of local fiscal sustainability .
in a period of time , even if that government is unable to reduce the total debt , it is possible to raise the principal and interest through the normal channels , and the risk of debt is still within the manageable scope .

Fourth , the local government is responsible for the local government debt risk analysis . In the case of the government debt risk analysis , the local government cannot simply add the three types of debt to the total , which requires an intermediate bridge , which will be responsible for the local government debt risk analysis through the local government .

Fifth , when establishing the local government balance sheet to evaluate the debt risk , to more truly reflect its evaluation effect , this paper makes a new interpretation of the local government assets and local government liabilities . The liabilities are defined as the debts that need to be held by the local government , and the assets are defined as the assets rather than all kinds of assets which the local government can use to repay the debt .

The first chapter is the introduction of local government debt . Chapter Two is the analysis of the present situation of local government debt . Chapter 2 is the analysis of the present situation of local government debt .
This paper compares the basic situation of local government debt in our country and discusses the fundamental reason of the formation of local government debt from the point of view of supply and demand of funds . The third chapter is the method and choice of local government debt risk evaluation .

First , whether local finance is sustainable is the criterion for judging the existence or absence of debt risk . It is not only necessary to analyze the existence of debt risk from static analysis . Secondly , the local government of Jiangsu Province has no debt risk and the debt level is within the controllable scope . Third , the local government debt scale is of great significance in the study of debt risk , but cannot be covered by its surface numbers . Fourthly , the assessment of debt risk needs to be analyzed with the funds of local government debt service , which needs to establish the balance sheet which can reflect the real debt service ability of the local government .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F812.5

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