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  本文選題：地方政府　切入點：債務風險　出處：《哈爾濱商業(yè)大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：2016年10月,時任財政部部長樓繼偉在(G20)財長和央行行長會議上指出:目前中國中央政府債務非常健康,占GDP的18%,擴張較快的主要是地方債務問題。我國地方政府性債務總額風險雖然總體可控,但局部風險已經(jīng)凸顯,加之傳統(tǒng)行業(yè)產(chǎn)能過剩和經(jīng)濟周期的因素,地方政府性債務風險必須得到重視。PPP模式的推廣將取代地方投融資平臺的地位成為減輕地方政府舉債壓力的重要途徑。地方政府性債務的風險結構將會發(fā)生變化,這對地方政府性債務的風險協(xié)同預警指標體系的構建提出了新的要求。單一化的風險預警指標體系很難滿足新的要求,構建多層次的風險協(xié)同預警指標體系有利于地方政府性債務風險的綜合量化和風險協(xié)同預警機制的建立。將協(xié)同管理理論、公債風險理論和風險度量理論作為研究的基礎理論,充實了該方面的相關理論體系,具有很大的理論意義。地方政府性債務風險協(xié)同預警指標體系的構建將會對地方政府性債務風險預警和防范起到指導性的作用。結合我國地方政府性債務的現(xiàn)狀和風險結構,利用AHP層次分析法構建模型,對債務風險預警指標體系的構建和風險預警具有一定的現(xiàn)實意義。從債務風險協(xié)同預警指標體系相關理論基礎出發(fā),對地方政府性債務風險預警指標體系的相關概念進行了界定,闡述了地方政府性債務風險的內涵和分類,分析了地方政府性債務風險協(xié)同預警指標體系的構建機理,并以協(xié)同管理理論、公債風險理論和風險度量理論作為研究的理論基礎;闡述了我國地方政府性債務風險協(xié)同預警指標體系的現(xiàn)狀,揭示了風險預警指標體系構建不科學、預警指標單一化和配套管理措施不健全的問題,分析了問題產(chǎn)生的原因;借鑒了美國俄亥俄州、澳大利亞、巴西和印度等國外發(fā)達和發(fā)展中國家在債務風險預警方面的先進經(jīng)驗,提出了完善債務風險協(xié)同預警評估指標體系、建立風險監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)庫、建立全口徑的預算約束機制、建立適合國情的協(xié)同預警組織結構和探索地方政府性債務風險協(xié)同預警聯(lián)動制度的政策建議。
[Abstract]:At a meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors on October 2016, then finance minister Lou Jiwei pointed out: at present, China's central government debt is very healthy. Accounting for 18% of GDP, the main reason for the rapid expansion is the local debt problem. Although the total risk of local government debt in China is generally controllable, the local risk has been highlighted, in addition to the overcapacity of traditional industries and the factors of the economic cycle. Local government debt risk must be valued. PPP model will replace the status of local investment and financing platform as an important way to reduce local government debt pressure. The risk structure of local government debt will change. This puts forward new requirements for the construction of the risk coordination early warning index system of local government debt. The single risk early warning index system is very difficult to meet the new requirements. The establishment of multi-level risk coordination early warning index system is beneficial to the comprehensive quantification of local government debt risk and the establishment of risk coordination early warning mechanism. The theory of cooperative management, the theory of public debt risk and the theory of risk measurement are taken as the basic theories of the research. It enriches the relevant theoretical system in this field, It is of great theoretical significance. The construction of cooperative early warning index system of local government debt risk will play a guiding role in early warning and prevention of local government debt risk, combined with the present situation and risk structure of local government debt in China. Using AHP analytic hierarchy process to construct the model has certain practical significance for the construction of debt risk early warning index system and risk early warning. Based on the related theory foundation of debt risk coordination early warning index system, this paper analyzes the relationship between debt risk early warning index system and debt risk warning index system. This paper defines the related concepts of the local government debt risk early warning index system, expounds the connotation and classification of the local government debt risk, and analyzes the construction mechanism of the local government debt risk coordination early warning index system. Based on the theory of collaborative management, the theory of public debt risk and the theory of risk measurement, this paper expounds the present situation of the index system of local government debt risk coordination and early warning, and reveals the unscientific construction of the index system of risk early warning. The problems of the singleness of early warning indicators and the imperfect management measures are analyzed, and the causes of the problems are analyzed. The advanced experiences of developed and developing countries, such as Brazil and India, in debt risk early warning, put forward the improvement of debt risk coordination early warning evaluation index system, the establishment of risk monitoring database, and the establishment of a full-caliber budget constraint mechanism. To establish a cooperative early warning organization structure suitable for national conditions and to explore the policy recommendations of the linkage system of local government debt risk coordination and early warning.
【學位授予單位】：哈爾濱商業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F812.5

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本文編號：1610469