本文選題：強(qiáng)制現(xiàn)金股利政策　切入點(diǎn)：事件研究法　出處：《重慶大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：針對(duì)上市公司現(xiàn)金股利分配普遍偏低，連續(xù)性及穩(wěn)定性不足的現(xiàn)象，出于引導(dǎo)證券市場(chǎng)健康發(fā)展，增強(qiáng)其長(zhǎng)期信心及保護(hù)中小投資者權(quán)益的目的，有關(guān)監(jiān)管部門(mén)自2000年底開(kāi)始出臺(tái)了一系列強(qiáng)制現(xiàn)金股利政策以促使上市公司建立良好的現(xiàn)金股利分配機(jī)制。 本文重點(diǎn)針對(duì)2008年10月9日證監(jiān)會(huì)發(fā)布《關(guān)于修改上市公司現(xiàn)金分紅若干規(guī)定的決定》這一事件，利用短期事件研究法考察市場(chǎng)對(duì)強(qiáng)制現(xiàn)金股利政策頒布期間的市場(chǎng)反應(yīng)。同時(shí)，利用事件后2009年至2011年的月度收益交易數(shù)據(jù)開(kāi)展購(gòu)買(mǎi)—持有異常收益（Buy and Hold Abnormal Return）長(zhǎng)期事件研究，并對(duì)三年36個(gè)月的月收益率數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行單因素方差分析及多元回歸分析。最后，在穩(wěn)健性檢驗(yàn)中，本文使用LOGISTIC回歸對(duì)上市企業(yè)的現(xiàn)金股利分配意愿進(jìn)行了分析驗(yàn)證，并建立多元回歸模型驗(yàn)證強(qiáng)制現(xiàn)金股利政策對(duì)企業(yè)的現(xiàn)金股利分配水平及政策頒布前后有不同現(xiàn)金股利分配行為的企業(yè)的市場(chǎng)價(jià)值的影響。 通過(guò)多種實(shí)證方法的研究分析，本文認(rèn)為證券監(jiān)管下的強(qiáng)制現(xiàn)金股利政策對(duì)上市公司的派現(xiàn)行為有顯著影響，明顯增強(qiáng)了上市公司現(xiàn)金股利分配意愿，，但對(duì)其分派水平的影響并不那么顯著�？赡芑谖覈�(guó)資本市場(chǎng)的弱有效性及其年輕性、投資者的投機(jī)心理、上市公司特殊的股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)等各方面原因，無(wú)論是投資者還是上市公司均對(duì)現(xiàn)金股利分配作壁上觀，表現(xiàn)為短期市場(chǎng)負(fù)面反應(yīng)、連續(xù)現(xiàn)金股利分配上市公司數(shù)量少且其企業(yè)價(jià)值相較無(wú)分紅企業(yè)并無(wú)顯著提升。這樣看來(lái)，監(jiān)管目標(biāo)并未很好地實(shí)現(xiàn)�？梢�(jiàn)，培育一個(gè)健康的資本市場(chǎng)仍需長(zhǎng)時(shí)間的努力。
[Abstract]:In order to guide the healthy development of the securities market, enhance its long-term confidence and protect the rights and interests of small and medium-sized investors, the cash dividend distribution of listed companies is generally on the low side, and the continuity and stability are insufficient, so as to guide the healthy development of the securities market. Since end of 2000, regulators have issued a series of mandatory cash dividend policies to encourage listed companies to establish a good cash dividend distribution mechanism. This paper focuses on the incident that the Securities Regulatory Commission issued a decision on amending some provisions on cash dividends of listed companies on October 9th 2008. Using the short-term event research method to investigate the market reaction to the compulsory cash dividend policy, meanwhile, using the monthly earnings trading data from 2009 to 2011 after the event, the long-term event study of buying and holding abnormal earnings and Hold Abnormal return is carried out. Finally, in the robustness test, we use LOGISTIC regression to analyze and verify the cash dividend distribution intention of listed companies. The multiple regression model is established to verify the effect of mandatory cash dividend policy on the level of cash dividend distribution and the market value of enterprises with different behavior of cash dividend distribution before and after the promulgation of the policy. Through the research and analysis of various empirical methods, this paper holds that the mandatory cash dividend policy under securities supervision has a significant impact on the cash dividend behavior of listed companies, and obviously strengthens the willingness of cash dividend distribution of listed companies. However, the effect on the distribution level is not so significant. It may be due to the weak validity of our capital market and its youth, investors' speculative psychology, the special equity structure of listed companies, and so on. Both investors and listed companies are indifferent to the distribution of cash dividends, which is reflected in the negative reaction of the short-term market. The number of listed companies with continuous cash dividend distribution is small and the enterprise value of the listed companies is not significantly higher than that of the enterprises without dividends. Regulatory goals have not been met well. It is clear that it will take a long time to foster a healthy capital market.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51;F275

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