本文選題：強制現(xiàn)金股利政策　切入點：事件研究法　出處：《重慶大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：針對上市公司現(xiàn)金股利分配普遍偏低，連續(xù)性及穩(wěn)定性不足的現(xiàn)象，出于引導證券市場健康發(fā)展，增強其長期信心及保護中小投資者權益的目的，有關監(jiān)管部門自2000年底開始出臺了一系列強制現(xiàn)金股利政策以促使上市公司建立良好的現(xiàn)金股利分配機制。 本文重點針對2008年10月9日證監(jiān)會發(fā)布《關于修改上市公司現(xiàn)金分紅若干規(guī)定的決定》這一事件，利用短期事件研究法考察市場對強制現(xiàn)金股利政策頒布期間的市場反應。同時，利用事件后2009年至2011年的月度收益交易數(shù)據(jù)開展購買—持有異常收益（Buy and Hold Abnormal Return）長期事件研究，并對三年36個月的月收益率數(shù)據(jù)進行單因素方差分析及多元回歸分析。最后，在穩(wěn)健性檢驗中，本文使用LOGISTIC回歸對上市企業(yè)的現(xiàn)金股利分配意愿進行了分析驗證，并建立多元回歸模型驗證強制現(xiàn)金股利政策對企業(yè)的現(xiàn)金股利分配水平及政策頒布前后有不同現(xiàn)金股利分配行為的企業(yè)的市場價值的影響。 通過多種實證方法的研究分析，本文認為證券監(jiān)管下的強制現(xiàn)金股利政策對上市公司的派現(xiàn)行為有顯著影響，明顯增強了上市公司現(xiàn)金股利分配意愿，，但對其分派水平的影響并不那么顯著。可能基于我國資本市場的弱有效性及其年輕性、投資者的投機心理、上市公司特殊的股權結(jié)構(gòu)等各方面原因，無論是投資者還是上市公司均對現(xiàn)金股利分配作壁上觀，表現(xiàn)為短期市場負面反應、連續(xù)現(xiàn)金股利分配上市公司數(shù)量少且其企業(yè)價值相較無分紅企業(yè)并無顯著提升。這樣看來，監(jiān)管目標并未很好地實現(xiàn)。可見，培育一個健康的資本市場仍需長時間的努力。
[Abstract]:In order to guide the healthy development of the securities market, enhance its long-term confidence and protect the rights and interests of small and medium-sized investors, the cash dividend distribution of listed companies is generally on the low side, and the continuity and stability are insufficient, so as to guide the healthy development of the securities market. Since end of 2000, regulators have issued a series of mandatory cash dividend policies to encourage listed companies to establish a good cash dividend distribution mechanism. This paper focuses on the incident that the Securities Regulatory Commission issued a decision on amending some provisions on cash dividends of listed companies on October 9th 2008. Using the short-term event research method to investigate the market reaction to the compulsory cash dividend policy, meanwhile, using the monthly earnings trading data from 2009 to 2011 after the event, the long-term event study of buying and holding abnormal earnings and Hold Abnormal return is carried out. Finally, in the robustness test, we use LOGISTIC regression to analyze and verify the cash dividend distribution intention of listed companies. The multiple regression model is established to verify the effect of mandatory cash dividend policy on the level of cash dividend distribution and the market value of enterprises with different behavior of cash dividend distribution before and after the promulgation of the policy. Through the research and analysis of various empirical methods, this paper holds that the mandatory cash dividend policy under securities supervision has a significant impact on the cash dividend behavior of listed companies, and obviously strengthens the willingness of cash dividend distribution of listed companies. However, the effect on the distribution level is not so significant. It may be due to the weak validity of our capital market and its youth, investors' speculative psychology, the special equity structure of listed companies, and so on. Both investors and listed companies are indifferent to the distribution of cash dividends, which is reflected in the negative reaction of the short-term market. The number of listed companies with continuous cash dividend distribution is small and the enterprise value of the listed companies is not significantly higher than that of the enterprises without dividends. Regulatory goals have not been met well. It is clear that it will take a long time to foster a healthy capital market.
【學位授予單位】：重慶大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.51;F275

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