匯率波動對股價區(qū)制轉(zhuǎn)換的影響——基于LSTR模型的分析
發(fā)布時間:2018-03-06 16:12
本文選題:匯率 切入點:股價 出處:《金融論壇》2017年05期 論文類型:期刊論文
【摘要】:本文在人民幣匯率浮動區(qū)間擴(kuò)大和"滬港通"的背景下,基于LSTR模型研究匯率波動對股價區(qū)制轉(zhuǎn)換的影響,結(jié)論為:匯率對股價的影響存在區(qū)制轉(zhuǎn)換,即在不同匯率波動區(qū)間,股票收益率波動有兩種不同的機(jī)制,這兩種機(jī)制的轉(zhuǎn)換發(fā)生在匯率波動率等于0.08238時。為防范系統(tǒng)性金融風(fēng)險發(fā)生,應(yīng)加強對國際游資的監(jiān)管和適時引導(dǎo)匯率預(yù)期。
[Abstract]:Based on the LSTR model, this paper studies the influence of the exchange rate fluctuation on the exchange rate zone conversion under the background of the expansion of the floating band of RMB exchange rate and the "Stock Connect". The conclusion is that the influence of the exchange rate on the stock price exists in the regional system change, that is, in the different exchange rate fluctuation range. There are two different mechanisms for the volatility of stock returns. The exchange rate volatility is equal to 0.08238. In order to prevent the occurrence of systemic financial risk, we should strengthen the supervision of international hot capital and guide the exchange rate expectation in good time.
【作者單位】: 昆明理工大學(xué)管理與經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;
【基金】:國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(41461026) 云南省人民政府與中國社會科學(xué)院合作項目(SYHZ2014004)
【分類號】:F832.51;F832.6
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本文編號:1575540
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