發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-03 23:37

  本文選題：房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)　切入點(diǎn)：股票市場(chǎng)　出處：《安徽財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：自1998年,我國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)逐步開始進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)化,且國(guó)家開始大力開發(fā)住房金融,我國(guó)的住房消費(fèi)者以及投資者都密切關(guān)注著我國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的變化,此時(shí),我國(guó)消費(fèi)需求量在住房方面得到了擴(kuò)增,同時(shí)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)規(guī)模開始激增,房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)逐步邁入快速的增長(zhǎng)時(shí)期,因此在投資市場(chǎng)中房地產(chǎn)投資的地位也逐漸提高。在股票市場(chǎng)方面,近年來(lái),對(duì)比于近年實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的迅猛增幅,股票市場(chǎng)卻始終處于震蕩波動(dòng)中,與實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的繁榮顯現(xiàn)出了較大的背離情形。我們可以看出房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)以及股票市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展對(duì)整體金融環(huán)境的發(fā)展方向有著重要的影響,因此保證股票市場(chǎng)與房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的健康發(fā)展,對(duì)于整體經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境來(lái)說(shuō)都是非常重要的。近年來(lái),國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者對(duì)股票市場(chǎng)與房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)之間關(guān)系進(jìn)行了深入的研究,無(wú)論數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源于哪一國(guó)的兩市場(chǎng),其實(shí)證結(jié)果都表明兩市場(chǎng)之間存在著重要的聯(lián)系。但在我國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)的股票市場(chǎng)與房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的研究中,對(duì)于兩者的關(guān)系有著不同的意見與結(jié)論。本文基于各種理論及實(shí)證研究,選取我國(guó)2005年至2016年的月度數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)股票市場(chǎng)與房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)之間的關(guān)聯(lián)性波動(dòng)進(jìn)行研究,并根據(jù)最終實(shí)證結(jié)果作出相應(yīng)的結(jié)論與建議。本文將分為以下幾個(gè)部分對(duì)股市與樓市的關(guān)聯(lián)性進(jìn)行分析,內(nèi)容從理論到實(shí)證,緊密聯(lián)系,具體如下:首先介紹本文的研究背景以及選題意義,股票市場(chǎng)與房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)作為我國(guó)虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)與實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的代表市場(chǎng),研究其內(nèi)在關(guān)系,對(duì)于政府政策的制定、投資者投資決策的選擇都是非常重要的。其次是針對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外有關(guān)股市和房市內(nèi)在關(guān)系研究的論文進(jìn)行介紹。發(fā)現(xiàn)關(guān)于兩市場(chǎng)的關(guān)系的研究的結(jié)論并不完全相同,因此本文對(duì)相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行簡(jiǎn)單的分類介紹。隨后是,股票市場(chǎng)與房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)關(guān)系的理論研究。本文對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)以及股票市場(chǎng)的相關(guān)概念進(jìn)行闡述,同時(shí)對(duì)兩市場(chǎng)的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制等進(jìn)行分析。接著是股票市場(chǎng)與房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)關(guān)聯(lián)性波動(dòng)的實(shí)證分析。在這一部分中,本文選取了上證綜指和深證成指作為股票市場(chǎng)的代表,而同時(shí)選取國(guó)房景氣指數(shù)以及商品房銷售單價(jià)作為房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格變動(dòng)的代表。分析方法中用到了描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)、單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、Granger因果檢驗(yàn)、VAR模型、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)等。得出了股票市場(chǎng)是房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的單向Granger原因,同時(shí)根據(jù)脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)的結(jié)果,得出股票市場(chǎng)與房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格正相關(guān)。然后將2005-2016年的月度數(shù)據(jù)分階段進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,并得出相應(yīng)結(jié)論。最后是結(jié)論與建議。針對(duì)實(shí)證結(jié)果得出股票市場(chǎng)與房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的相關(guān)性的結(jié)論,同時(shí)針對(duì)我國(guó)股市和樓市的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀給出相應(yīng)的建議。
[Abstract]:Since 1998, China's real estate market has gradually entered the market, and the country began to vigorously develop housing finance, our housing consumers and investors are closely watching the changes in our real estate market, at this time, China's consumer demand has been expanded in terms of housing. At the same time, the scale of the real estate market has begun to surge, and the real estate market has gradually entered a period of rapid growth. Therefore, the position of real estate investment in the investment market has gradually increased. In the stock market, in recent years, compared with the rapid growth of the real economy in recent years, the stock market has been in a volatile state. We can see that the development of the real estate market and the stock market has an important impact on the development direction of the overall financial environment. Therefore, to ensure the healthy development of the stock market and the real estate market is very important to the overall economic environment. In recent years, scholars at home and abroad have carried out in-depth research on the relationship between the stock market and the real estate market. No matter where the data come from, the empirical results show that there is an important connection between the two markets. However, in the research of stock market and real estate market in China, There are different opinions and conclusions on the relationship between the two. Based on various theoretical and empirical studies, this paper selects monthly data from 2005 to 2016 to study the correlation volatility between the stock market and the real estate market. And according to the final empirical results to make the corresponding conclusions and recommendations. This paper will be divided into the following parts of the stock market and the property market relevance analysis, content from theory to empirical, closely linked, The main contents are as follows: firstly, this paper introduces the research background and the significance of the topic, the stock market and the real estate market as the representative market of the virtual economy and the real economy of our country, studies its internal relations, and makes the government policy. The choice of investors' investment decision is very important. Secondly, the paper about the internal relationship between stock market and housing market is introduced at home and abroad. It is found that the conclusion of the research on the relationship between the two markets is not exactly the same. Therefore, this paper makes a simple classification of the relevant literature. Then, the relationship between the stock market and the real estate market is theoretically studied. This paper expounds the related concepts of the real estate market and the stock market. At the same time, the transmission mechanism of the two markets is analyzed. Then there is an empirical analysis of the volatility between the stock market and the real estate market. In this part, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Composite Index are selected as the representatives of the stock market. At the same time, the national housing boom index and the unit price of commercial housing sales are selected as the representative of the real estate market price change. The analysis method uses descriptive statistics, unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test and VAR model. Pulse response function and so on. The reason that stock market is unidirectional Granger of real estate market is obtained, and according to the result of impulse response function, It is concluded that the stock market is positively correlated with the real estate market price. Then the monthly data from 2005 to 2016 are analyzed empirically. Finally, the conclusions and suggestions are given. Based on the empirical results, the correlation between the stock market and the real estate market is concluded. At the same time, the corresponding suggestions are given for the development of the stock market and the real estate market in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51;F299.23

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本文編號(hào)：1563223