本文關(guān)鍵詞： 地方債置換 貨幣效應(yīng) 金融機(jī)構(gòu)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表 信用創(chuàng)造　出處：《中國財(cái)政科學(xué)研究院》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：地方債置換,是指地方政府通過發(fā)行地方政府債券置換納入預(yù)算管理的非政府債券形式存量政府債務(wù)。截至2014年末,全國地方政府債務(wù)余額達(dá)15.4萬億元,其中90%以上通過非政府債券方式舉借,地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)日益成為全社會關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)問題。為緩解地方政府償債壓力,經(jīng)國務(wù)院批準(zhǔn),2015年財(cái)政部開始推行地方債置換,當(dāng)年下達(dá)置換額度3.2萬億元,2016年置換額度增至5萬億元。作為一種新型的財(cái)政政策工具,地方債置換涉及債務(wù)、財(cái)政、貨幣、投資等諸多領(lǐng)域,需要多個政府部門協(xié)同配合,國家在政策執(zhí)行過程中尤其需要注意其對貨幣供給的影響。當(dāng)前國內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)對此的研究還比較薄弱。本文立足貨幣供給的微觀機(jī)制,以金融機(jī)構(gòu)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表和流動性的層級結(jié)構(gòu)為分析工具,全面分析、評估了地方債置換及其政策對流動性、貨幣供應(yīng)量和貨幣政策的近遠(yuǎn)期影響。研究結(jié)論可為之后地方債置換政策執(zhí)行中的貨幣政策協(xié)同提供參考,相關(guān)研究方法可為財(cái)政貨幣政策協(xié)調(diào)問題的研究提供借鑒。本文研究發(fā)現(xiàn),地方債置換將從國庫收支、貨幣創(chuàng)造兩個渠道對貨幣供給產(chǎn)生影響。地方債置換通過國庫收支可能對銀行體系的流動性產(chǎn)生短期沖擊,通過貨幣創(chuàng)造將增加貨幣供應(yīng)量,具體影響則因存量債務(wù)形式的不同而不同。置換銀行貸款、銀行持有的企業(yè)債券和“銀行影子”業(yè)務(wù)不會對M2產(chǎn)生影響,置換非銀行機(jī)構(gòu)持有的企業(yè)債券、傳統(tǒng)影子銀行融資和其他債務(wù)則會導(dǎo)致M2的增加。在對地方債置換基本情況進(jìn)行介紹的基礎(chǔ)上,本文對地方債置換的貨幣效應(yīng)進(jìn)行了實(shí)證評估。評估發(fā)現(xiàn):由于少量置換資金滯留國庫,2015-2016年地方債置換事實(shí)上對銀行體系的流動性有一定影響,初始沖擊在6,000億元/年至7,500億元/年之間;財(cái)政部門國庫現(xiàn)金管理、加快支出節(jié)奏、盤活存量資金的系列措施“對沖”了部分流動性影響;地方債置換能創(chuàng)造的M2總量約為2.4萬億元,按三年計(jì)算約為8,000億元/年,長遠(yuǎn)來看這部分貨幣會“沉淀”下來;地方債置換意外推動了地方政府國庫現(xiàn)金管理的發(fā)展,對貨幣政策實(shí)施可能產(chǎn)生長遠(yuǎn)影響,地方政府債券納入部分貨幣政策操作的抵(質(zhì))押品范圍則為央行向市場投放基礎(chǔ)貨幣提供了一個新工具。本文認(rèn)為,地方債置換在一定程度上加大了國庫管理難度,擾動了貨幣金融指標(biāo),擠壓了貨幣政策空間。為加強(qiáng)財(cái)政貨幣政策協(xié)調(diào),本文建議建立財(cái)政貨幣政策統(tǒng)籌協(xié)調(diào)機(jī)制,深化現(xiàn)代國庫管理制度改革,提高貨幣政策應(yīng)對自發(fā)性因素的能力,強(qiáng)化政府債券在貨幣政策中的作用。在進(jìn)一步的討論中,本文認(rèn)為地方債置換蘊(yùn)含著貨幣創(chuàng)造機(jī)制調(diào)整的趨勢,以政府債券為代表的債券業(yè)務(wù)將在未來的貨幣創(chuàng)造和貨幣政策操作中發(fā)揮更加重要的作用。當(dāng)然,本文還存在著不少不足。在地方債置換的貨幣效應(yīng)的理論分析中沒有建立統(tǒng)一的數(shù)量模型,定量評估偏重資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表分析,評估的精確性方面有待進(jìn)一步提高。
[Abstract]:Local debt replacement refers to the local government through the issuance of local government bonds included in the budget management of the replacement of the stock of government bonds form non government debt. By the end of 2014, the local government debt amounted to 15 trillion and 400 billion yuan, of which more than 90% of the non borrowing government bonds, local government debt risk has become the focus of the whole society. To ease the pressure on local government debt service, approved by the State Council, the Ministry of Finance in 2015 to start the implementation of local debt replacement, the replacement by the amount of 3 trillion and 200 billion yuan, in 2016 the replacement amount increased to 5 trillion yuan. As a new tool of fiscal policy, local debt replacement involving debt, fiscal, monetary, investment and other areas, many government departments need to cooperate the state, in the process of policy implementation especially need to pay attention to the impact on the money supply. The current research literature at home and abroad is still relatively weak in this regard . based on the microscopic mechanism of money supply, the hierarchical structure of financial institutions balance sheet and liquidity analysis tools, comprehensive analysis, assessment of local government debt and its replacement policy for liquidity, in the long-term effects of money supply and monetary policy. The research conclusion can be performed for local debt replacement policy in currency policy coordination to provide reference, relevant research methods can provide reference for the research on the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy. This study found that the local debt replacement from Treasury payments, money creation two channels have an impact on the money supply. The local debt replacement through national treasury may have the impact of short-term liquidity in the banking system, through money creation increase the money supply, the specific impact on the stock of debt due to different forms and different. The replacement of bank loans, corporate bonds held by banks and shadow banks "industry The service will not affect the M2, replacement of non bank institutions hold corporate bonds, the traditional shadow bank financing and other debt will lead to the increase of M2. This paper introduces the basic situation in the replacement of local debt, the currency effect on local debt replacement for empirical evaluation. The assessment found that: because a small amount of replacement funds retention of Treasury, has certain influence on 2015-2016 years of local debt replacement in fact to the banking system liquidity, the initial impact in the 600 billion yuan / year to 750 billion yuan / year; treasury cash management in the financial sector, spending to accelerate the pace, a series of measures to revitalize the stock funds hedge "effects of liquidity; the amount of M2 local debt replacement can create about 2 trillion and 400 billion yuan, according to three years is about 800 billion yuan / year, the long run this part of money will" deposit "down; local debt replacement accident to promote local government treasury now The development of fund management, the implementation may have a long-term impact on the monetary policy, local government bonds included in the part of the monetary policy operation against (quality) collateral scope for the central bank to provide a new tool to market base currency. This paper argues that the local debt has increased the difficulty of replacement of treasury management in a certain extent, the disturbance of the currency the financial index, squeezing the monetary policy space. In order to strengthen the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy, this paper proposed the establishment of fiscal and monetary policy coordination mechanism, deepen the reform of treasury management system, improve the ability of monetary policy to deal with spontaneous factors, strengthening the government bonds in monetary policy. In the further discussion, this paper thinks that the local debt replacement contains the money creation mechanism to adjust the trend of government bonds as the representative of the bond business will be created and the operation of monetary policy in the future play a more money Of course, there are still many shortcomings. In the theoretical analysis of the monetary effect of local debt replacement, there is no unified quantitative model. Quantitative evaluation is biased towards the balance sheet analysis, and the accuracy of evaluation needs further improvement.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國財(cái)政科學(xué)研究院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F812.5

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 石紹賓;;地方債為公共品融資:條件與效應(yīng)分析[J];稅務(wù)與經(jīng)濟(jì);2007年02期

2 宋紹智;;建立我國地方債制度的初步研究[J];財(cái)會研究;2007年04期

3 魏加寧;;推進(jìn)地方債市場化發(fā)行[J];中國投資;2009年05期

4 陳少強(qiáng);;中央代發(fā)地方債研究[J];中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2009年07期

5 陳少強(qiáng);;財(cái)政部代發(fā)地方債的背景、特點(diǎn)與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范[J];西部財(cái)會;2009年04期

6 李世敏;;地方債務(wù)為何不斷膨脹[J];人民論壇;2010年01期

7 劉曉鳳;郭慧芳;;地方債管理:理論命題與機(jī)制轉(zhuǎn)變——以湖北為例[J];山東經(jīng)濟(jì);2010年02期

8 賈康;;天量隱性地方債如何走向陽光[J];中國報(bào)道;2010年07期

9 王瀛;;誰來兜底地方債[J];英才;2010年08期

10 葉檀;;地方債務(wù)誰來買單[J];廉政w，

本文編號：1544206