本文關(guān)鍵詞： 對外貿(mào)易 隱含碳 投入產(chǎn)出 LMDI模型 低碳貿(mào)易　出處：《中國海洋大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：氣候問題是當今世界各國共同面臨的一項巨大挑戰(zhàn)，引起各國廣泛關(guān)注和重視，，二氧化碳等溫室氣體的減排是緩解氣候變化的一項有效措施。但是在經(jīng)濟全球化的背景下，我們不能忽視自由貿(mào)易造成的污染轉(zhuǎn)移。本文旨在定量分析我國進出口貿(mào)易隱含碳排放量及其影響因素，有助于正確認識對外貿(mào)易給我國帶來的環(huán)境影響，為我國貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟增長方式提供有力依據(jù)。 本文通過運用修正的投入產(chǎn)出模型測算了我國2002、2005、2007及2010年我國進出口貿(mào)易隱含碳排放量，結(jié)果表明：我國出口隱含碳排放量由2002年的10.99億噸增加至2007年29.13億噸，后略有下降，到2010年為27.08億噸；進口隱含碳量一直處于上升趨勢，由2002年4.87億噸升至2010年11.51億噸。我國出口貿(mào)易隱含碳排放遠高于進口隱含碳排放量，我國一直處于隱含碳凈出口國地位。同時通過分析兩種不同負責制下我國的碳排放責任，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)在現(xiàn)行“生產(chǎn)負責制”下，因貿(mào)易活動的存在造成我國替別國承擔了很大一部分碳排放責任。進一步行業(yè)分析我們得出，像化學工業(yè)、電子設(shè)備制造業(yè)等工業(yè)部門在我國出口隱含碳中占據(jù)主要地位，我國進口貿(mào)易中高碳排放行業(yè)占進口貿(mào)易額比重較高，但其進口規(guī)模相較于出口規(guī)模較小，同時由于我國技術(shù)水平相對較低，造成我國貿(mào)易中多數(shù)行業(yè)處于隱含碳凈出口狀態(tài)。我國在貿(mào)易中仍處于環(huán)境不利地位，我國貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)有待進一步優(yōu)化。 在測算出進出口隱含碳排放的基礎(chǔ)上，本文進一步運用LMDI指數(shù)分析法對貿(mào)易隱含碳排放的影響因素分解為規(guī)模效應(yīng)、結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)和強度效應(yīng)。研究結(jié)果表明：規(guī)模效應(yīng)是造成我國進出口隱含碳排放增加的主要因素，隨著我國貿(mào)易規(guī)模的不斷擴大，我國的進出口隱含碳量也會呈現(xiàn)增長趨勢；而強度效應(yīng)則是抑制進出口隱含碳排放的主要因素，但目前能源效率的提高和生產(chǎn)技術(shù)的改善所減少的隱含碳排放并不足以抵消規(guī)模效應(yīng)的影響；結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)對進出口隱含碳的作用都是正向的，其影響力度遠小于規(guī)模效應(yīng)和強度效應(yīng)，我國進出口結(jié)構(gòu)并未在貿(mào)易中發(fā)揮減排的作用，有待進一步優(yōu)化升級。 基于以上的研究結(jié)果，本文提出我國實行低碳貿(mào)易的政策建議，包括能源結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、加強國際談判、爭取國際合作等方面，引導我國對外貿(mào)易向低碳方向發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Climate problem is a great challenge that all countries in the world are facing, and it has aroused the attention of all countries. The reduction of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide is an effective measure to mitigate climate change. However, in the context of economic globalization, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is an effective measure to mitigate climate change. We can not ignore the pollution transfer caused by free trade. The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively analyze the implied carbon emissions of China's import and export trade and its influencing factors, which is helpful to correctly understand the environmental impact of foreign trade on our country. For our country's trade structure adjustment, changes the economic growth pattern to provide the strength basis. Based on the modified input-output model, the implied carbon emissions of China's import and export trade in 2007 and 2010 are calculated. The results show that the implied carbon emissions of China's exports increased from one billion ninety-nine million tons in 2002 to two billion nine hundred and thirteen million tons in 2007, and then decreased slightly. By 2010, it was two billion seven hundred and eight million tons, and the import implicit carbon content had been on the rise, from 487 million tons on 2002 to one billion one hundred and fifty-one million tons on 2010. The implied carbon emissions of China's export trade were much higher than those of imports. China has always been in the position of net exporter of implied carbon. Through the analysis of China's carbon emission responsibility under two different responsibility systems, we find that under the current "production responsibility system", As a result of the existence of trade activities, China has taken on a large part of the responsibility for carbon emissions for other countries. Further industry analysis shows that industries such as chemical industry, electronic equipment manufacturing and other industrial sectors play a major role in China's export of implied carbon. China's import trade with high carbon emissions accounts for a higher proportion of import trade, but its import scale is smaller than that of exports, and because of the relatively low level of technology in China, As a result, most industries in China's trade are in the state of net export of implied carbon, and China is still in a disadvantageous position in trade, and its trade structure needs to be further optimized. On the basis of calculating the implied carbon emissions from import and export, this paper further uses the LMDI index analysis method to decompose the influencing factors of trade implied carbon emissions into scale effects. Structure effect and intensity effect. The results show that scale effect is the main factor causing the increase of China's import and export implied carbon emissions. With the expansion of China's trade scale, China's import and export implicit carbon content will also show an increasing trend; The intensity effect is the main factor to restrain the import and export implied carbon emissions, but the improvement of energy efficiency and the improvement of production technology can not offset the impact of scale effect. The effect of structural effect on import and export implied carbon is positive, and its effect is much less than that of scale effect and intensity effect. The structure of China's import and export has not played the role of emission reduction in trade and needs to be further optimized and upgraded. Based on the above research results, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions for implementing low-carbon trade in China, including energy structure adjustment, industrial structure adjustment, trade structure adjustment, strengthening international negotiations, striving for international cooperation, etc. Guide our country's foreign trade to develop in the direction of low carbon.
【學位授予單位】：中國海洋大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.5;F205

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