本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國(guó)私募股權(quán)投資估值不確定性問(wèn)題的研究　出處：《廈門大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：本文針對(duì)私募股權(quán)投資過(guò)程估值不確定問(wèn)題展開(kāi)研究。考慮到私募股權(quán)投資不愿披露信息的特性,筆者在研究方法上引入控制論分析黑箱時(shí)所用黑箱理論的原理,將私募股權(quán)估值作為一個(gè)估值黑箱來(lái)研究估值不確定性問(wèn)題。 在分析了私募股權(quán)投資整個(gè)投資循環(huán)的基礎(chǔ)上,全文基于創(chuàng)業(yè)板上市公司歷史數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用因素分析法、統(tǒng)計(jì)分析法、例證法等方法,圍繞投資前與退出前兩個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)對(duì)估值不確定性機(jī)理展開(kāi)一系列研究。研究得出：1、投資前的估值不確定性是因現(xiàn)有的估值方案中沒(méi)把博弈雙方完整納入估值對(duì)象,PE的缺失導(dǎo)致估值黑箱不完整、不穩(wěn)定引起的。事實(shí)上,PE的無(wú)形資產(chǎn)對(duì)獲得投資后的目標(biāo)企業(yè)這個(gè)估值黑箱的成長(zhǎng)影響很大,這是前人研究中沒(méi)注意到的一個(gè)基礎(chǔ)性問(wèn)題,其根源來(lái)自中西方的文化差異。正是PE無(wú)形資產(chǎn)的投入改變了估值黑箱的成長(zhǎng)軌跡,使之表現(xiàn)出不同的估值特性。2、退出前的估值不確定性與退出市場(chǎng)的不確定息息相關(guān),由于目前不同退出方式收益懸殊太大,導(dǎo)致PE一旦未能實(shí)現(xiàn)IPO退出則對(duì)估值不確定造成巨大的影響,鑒于每種退出方式的收益與不同退出市場(chǎng)間的交易成本息息相關(guān),為縮小退出前估值不確定程度,建議在不同交易成本設(shè)計(jì)下構(gòu)建多層次資本市場(chǎng)來(lái)最終降低估值不確定性。 根據(jù)研究的結(jié)果針對(duì)目前實(shí)際存在的問(wèn)題提出以下建議：1、對(duì)PE而言,從創(chuàng)業(yè)板數(shù)據(jù)的多項(xiàng)指標(biāo)表明過(guò)去PE在投資前估值所采用的市盈率倍數(shù)偏高,今后應(yīng)該要適度調(diào)低投資前市盈率的倍數(shù),以避免退出時(shí)一二級(jí)市場(chǎng)“估值倒掛”帶來(lái)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)導(dǎo)致的估值不確定；2、鑒于PE個(gè)體能力不同表現(xiàn)出的估值差異不是估值不確定性的表現(xiàn),PE應(yīng)該通過(guò)選擇不同的目標(biāo)企業(yè)來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)自己應(yīng)有的價(jià)值。3、對(duì)監(jiān)管層而言,可以在不同交易成本設(shè)計(jì)下構(gòu)建多層次資本市場(chǎng)來(lái)最終降低估值不確定程度。
[Abstract]:According to the process of private equity investment valuation uncertainty research. Considering the characteristics of private equity investment to disclosure of information, the author introduces the control principle of black box theory for analysis of the black box in the research method, the valuation of private equity valuations as a black box to study the valuation uncertainty problem.
Based on the analysis of the whole investment investment cycle of private equity, the GEM listed companies based on historical data, using factor analysis method, statistical analysis method, example method, focus on investment and exit before the first two aspects to launch a series of research on the mechanism of valuation uncertainty. The results are: 1, investment valuation uncertainty is the result of the valuation of the existing scheme in the two sides of the game did not put into the valuation object, the loss of PE causes the valuation of black box is not complete, due to instability. In fact, great influence the growth of PE intangible assets of the target enterprise investment after the valuation of the black box, this is a basic problem in previous studies pay no attention to the cultural differences, with its roots in the West. It is the PE input of intangible assets has changed the growth trajectory of the black box of the valuation, showing.2 valuation characteristics, exit before. The value of uncertainty and the uncertainty of the market exit is due to the different ways to withdraw the income gap is too large, resulting in PE once failed to achieve IPO exit of valuation uncertainty caused by the huge impact, in view of each form of benefits and different exit transaction costs between markets are closely related, in order to reduce the exit before the valuation of the degree of uncertainty. In different transaction cost design under the construction of multi-level capital market to ultimately reduce the valuation uncertainty.
According to the results of the study aiming at the practical problems and put forward the following suggestions: 1, for PE, from a number of indicators of the gem data shows that in the past PE before investment valuation the price earning ratio is high, the future should be a modest reduction in multiple investment earnings, in order to avoid the risk of exit one or two market valuation the resulting upside down "valuation uncertainty; 2, the difference between the valuation of PE individual ability is not shown in different valuation uncertainty, PE should by choosing different target companies to achieve their expected value.3, as for the government, can the construction of multi-level capital market in different transaction costs to the final design reduce the valuation of the degree of uncertainty.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：廈門大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F832.51

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