【摘要】：本文以成都市作為研究對(duì)象，根據(jù)研究區(qū)的自身情況，收集整理了來自成都市統(tǒng)計(jì)局發(fā)布的成都市1999-2010年期間的土地利用類型、面積數(shù)據(jù)。此外根據(jù)成都市統(tǒng)計(jì)局發(fā)布的統(tǒng)計(jì)公報(bào)，收集成都市在這期間的經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展數(shù)據(jù)，用正負(fù)功效法對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化處理，消除單位和量綱對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)分析研究的影響。 1、運(yùn)用已經(jīng)成熟的土地結(jié)構(gòu)分析法，通過土地單一結(jié)構(gòu)分析（計(jì)算其各類土地面積比重變化趨勢(shì)）、土地利用多樣性（計(jì)算系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部各類土地類型變化）、信息熵（計(jì)算系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部有序與無序程度）、優(yōu)勢(shì)度、均衡度等方法，對(duì)成都市1999-2009年共計(jì)11年期間的土地類型、面積數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)化的分析整合。 2、從整體的層面對(duì)成都市1999-2010年土地利用的綜合效益進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)，筆者在閱讀整理了大量前人對(duì)于土地利用評(píng)價(jià)效益的基礎(chǔ)上，以科學(xué)性、系統(tǒng)性和層次性、可操作性、綜合性的原則，確立了涉及土地利用的經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)、生態(tài)效益三大指標(biāo)，同時(shí)基于成熟的權(quán)重評(píng)價(jià)法，，采用層次分析法，運(yùn)用模糊數(shù)學(xué)、隸屬度模型，將主觀評(píng)價(jià)與客觀評(píng)價(jià)相結(jié)合，得出各指標(biāo)權(quán)重，并用和法求出綜合權(quán)重。 3、選用各種預(yù)測(cè)模型，通過四大指標(biāo)預(yù)測(cè)成都市建成區(qū)面積未來變化方向，求出回歸方程。為了實(shí)現(xiàn)數(shù)據(jù)具有互比價(jià)值，應(yīng)用功效系數(shù)法，計(jì)算出土地利用的綜合功效。 4、最后，選取協(xié)調(diào)度模型，對(duì)成都市12年間土地利用協(xié)調(diào)程度進(jìn)行研究比較。 通過應(yīng)用相關(guān)方法、模型可以看出，成都市在2003-2009年建成區(qū)面積開始不斷擴(kuò)大，尤其是2002-2003年間增幅最大，2003-2007年增幅降緩。整體上而言成都市在這12年間建成區(qū)面積是在漸長。其中增幅較大的有建成區(qū)綠地、建成城區(qū)、公共設(shè)施用地以及工業(yè)用地面積，其增幅分別為240.58%、89.08%、74.91%、69.28%。而土地利用多樣化值最大值出現(xiàn)在2003年，其多樣化指數(shù)達(dá)到0.69852，其最小值出是2000年的0.6259，歷年均值為0.6688。而從信息熵而言，成都市這一階段土地分布較為不平衡漸進(jìn)。單從整體而言，其最大差值為0.116，表明城市的整體發(fā)展是在從無序—有序—無序的一種發(fā)展模式。從土地利用綜合效益而言，從1999-2000年出現(xiàn)局部下滑，但經(jīng)過2000年這一拐點(diǎn)后，成都市土地利用效益呈現(xiàn)一種逐步上升的趨勢(shì)，隨時(shí)間推移，這種勢(shì)頭表現(xiàn)越加明現(xiàn)。從1999年0.2727增加到2010年0.8595，在原有基礎(chǔ)上翻了3.15倍。成都市土地利用過程中，總體呈現(xiàn)一種協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的模式。其中除去2000年土地利用為良好協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展以外，從1999-2010年均呈現(xiàn)優(yōu)質(zhì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展，同時(shí)這也意味著成都市整體土地利用程度較高，生態(tài)環(huán)境優(yōu)良、社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)各方面發(fā)展均較快。再運(yùn)用多項(xiàng)式模型預(yù)測(cè)未來成都市建設(shè)用地的發(fā)展方向，并得出回歸方程。最后根據(jù)評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果，對(duì)結(jié)果進(jìn)行解釋，提出優(yōu)化建議。
[Abstract]:In this paper, Chengdu is taken as the research object, according to the situation of the study area, the land use type and area data of Chengdu from 1999 to 2010 issued by Chengdu Bureau of Statistics are collected and sorted out. In addition, according to the statistical bulletin issued by Chengdu Bureau of Statistics, the economic and social development data of Chengdu during this period are collected, and the positive and negative effect method is used to standardize the data, so as to eliminate the influence of units and dimensions on data analysis and research. 1. Using the mature land structure analysis method, through the analysis of land single structure (to calculate the change trend of the proportion of all kinds of land area), the diversity of land use (to calculate the change of all kinds of land types within the system), the information entropy (to calculate the degree of order and disorder within the system), the degree of dominance, the degree of equilibrium, etc., this paper deals with the land types in Chengdu during the 11-year period from 1999 to 2009. The area data is systematically analyzed and integrated. 2. From the overall level, the author evaluates the comprehensive benefits of land use in Chengdu from 1999 to 2010. On the basis of reading and sorting out a large number of previous land use evaluation benefits, the author establishes three indicators of land use economic, social and ecological benefits with the principles of science, systematicness and hierarchy, maneuverability and comprehensiveness. At the same time, based on the mature weight evaluation method, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method is adopted. By using fuzzy mathematics and membership degree model, the subjective evaluation and objective evaluation are combined to obtain the weight of each index, and the sum method is used to calculate the comprehensive weight. 3. Using various prediction models, the future change direction of built-up area in Chengdu is predicted by four indexes, and the regression equation is obtained. In order to realize the mutual comparison value of the data, the comprehensive effect of land use is calculated by using the efficiency coefficient method. 4. Finally, the coordination degree model is selected to study and compare the degree of land use coordination in Chengdu in the past 12 years. Through the application of the relevant methods, it can be seen that the area of Chengdu began to expand from 2003 to 2009, especially from 2002 to 2003, and the growth rate decreased slowly from 2003 to 2007. On the whole, the area of Chengdu has been growing in the past 12 years. Among them, the areas of green space in built-up areas, urban areas, public facilities land and industrial land increased by 240.58%, 89.08%, 74.91% and 6928%, respectively. However, the maximum value of land use diversity appeared in 2003, and its diversification index reached 0.69852, the minimum value was 0.6259 in 2000, and the average value was 0.6688. As far as information entropy is concerned, the land distribution in Chengdu is uneven and gradual in this stage. As a whole, the maximum difference is 0.116, which indicates that the overall development of the city is a kind of development mode from disorder to order and disorder. As far as the comprehensive benefit of land use is concerned, there has been a local decline from 1999 to 2000, but after the inflection point of 2000, the land use benefit of Chengdu has shown a gradual upward trend, and with the passage of time, this momentum has become more and more obvious. It increased from 0.2727 in 1999 to 0.8595 in 2010, an increase of 3.15 times on the original basis. In the process of land use in Chengdu, there is a mode of coordinated development as a whole. In addition to the good coordinated development of land use in 2000, it has shown high quality and coordinated development from 1999 to 2010. At the same time, it also means that Chengdu has a high degree of land use, excellent ecological environment and rapid social and economic development. Then the multinomial model is used to predict the development direction of construction land in Chengdu in the future, and the regression equation is obtained. Finally, according to the evaluation results, the results are explained and the optimization suggestions are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：四川師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23

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