發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-11-12 19:52

【摘要】：隨著信息技術(shù)的飛速發(fā)展和全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化步伐的加快，企業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)日益激烈。企業(yè)間的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)也可以歸結(jié)為新產(chǎn)品之間的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新己經(jīng)成為企業(yè)創(chuàng)新的核心任務(wù)，而產(chǎn)品系統(tǒng)復(fù)雜化已經(jīng)成為大勢(shì)之趨，由于復(fù)雜產(chǎn)品的研發(fā)具有投資高、技術(shù)復(fù)雜、周期長(zhǎng)、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)高的特點(diǎn)。為了確保產(chǎn)品研發(fā)的成功，必須進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理，包括風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度量、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳遞以及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制。在復(fù)雜產(chǎn)品研發(fā)的過(guò)程中主制造商-供應(yīng)商模式也逐漸被各個(gè)企業(yè)所接受，本文也著重研究了該模式下復(fù)雜產(chǎn)品研發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的傳遞。 本文基于經(jīng)典GERT網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型，研究了單一研發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳遞模型以及綜合研發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模型及其相關(guān)內(nèi)容，并將其的算法運(yùn)用到了實(shí)際案例中，文章的主要研究?jī)?nèi)容如下： （1）明確主制造商-供應(yīng)商模式，建立了材料及零部件供應(yīng)商-子系統(tǒng)供應(yīng)商-主制造商的三階段模型。明確復(fù)雜產(chǎn)品研發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)特點(diǎn)，進(jìn)行研發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的識(shí)別，確定要研究的復(fù)雜產(chǎn)品研發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并針對(duì)進(jìn)度和費(fèi)用兩個(gè)方面的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)一步研究。 （2）復(fù)雜產(chǎn)品研發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳遞的研究包括兩個(gè)方面：首先，結(jié)合單一參數(shù)的GERT網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型，研究單一研發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的傳遞過(guò)程，從進(jìn)度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和費(fèi)用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)兩個(gè)方面來(lái)研究傳遞的機(jī)制和度量方法。然后，結(jié)合多參數(shù)的R-GERT網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型，研究綜合研發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的傳遞過(guò)程，將綜合研發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)看作是進(jìn)度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的函數(shù)，通過(guò)相關(guān)的定義以及定理的證明來(lái)確定多參數(shù)R-GERT網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型的求解方法，最后再結(jié)合每個(gè)子系統(tǒng)供應(yīng)商對(duì)主制造商的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)貢獻(xiàn)率，，求出主制造商最終的綜合研發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)大小。 （3）用實(shí)例對(duì)上述單一研發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素以及綜合研發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的模型進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證，并提出相應(yīng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制的對(duì)策，主要是以某型號(hào)飛機(jī)的研發(fā)過(guò)程作為研究的對(duì)象，通過(guò)整合現(xiàn)有該型號(hào)的資料，構(gòu)建相應(yīng)的R-GERT模型，求得綜合研發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的傳遞機(jī)制，并給出主制造商控制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的對(duì)策。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of information technology and the acceleration of global economic integration, enterprise competition is becoming increasingly fierce. Competition among enterprises can also be attributed to competition among new products. Product innovation has become the core task of enterprise innovation, and the complexity of product system has become the trend of the general trend, because the R & D of complex products has the characteristics of high investment, complex technology, long cycle and high risk. Risk management, including risk identification, risk measurement, risk transmission and risk control, is necessary to ensure the success of product development. In the process of complex product research and development, the main manufacturer-supplier model is gradually accepted by various enterprises, this paper also focuses on the complex product R & D risk transfer. Based on the classical GERT network model, this paper studies the single R & D risk transfer model and the integrated R D risk model and its related contents, and applies its algorithm to a practical case. The main contents of this paper are as follows: (1) the main manufacturer-supplier model is defined and a three-stage model of material and parts supplier-subsystem supplier-main manufacturer is established. The characteristics of R & D risk of complex products are defined, the risk of R D is identified, the R D risk of complex product is determined, and the risk of schedule and cost is further studied. (2) the research on risk transfer of complex product research includes two aspects: firstly, the transmission process of single R & D risk factor is studied by combining the GERT network model with single parameter. The transmission mechanism and measurement method are studied from two aspects of schedule risk and cost risk. Then, combined with the multi-parameter R-GERT network model, the transfer process of comprehensive R & D risk is studied, and the integrated R & D risk is regarded as a function of schedule risk. The solution method of multi-parameter R-GERT network model is determined by relevant definition and theorem proof. Finally, combined with the risk contribution rate of each subsystem supplier to the main manufacturer, the final comprehensive R & D risk of the main manufacturer is obtained. (3) to verify the risk factors of single R & D and the model of comprehensive R & D risk with an example, and put forward the corresponding countermeasures of risk control, mainly taking the R & D process of a certain type of aircraft as the object of study. By integrating the existing data of this model, the corresponding R-GERT model is constructed, and the transmission mechanism of comprehensive R & D risk is obtained, and the countermeasures of controlling the risk of the main manufacturer are given.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京航空航天大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F273.2;F224

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