發(fā)布時間：2018-11-12 19:52

【摘要】：隨著信息技術(shù)的飛速發(fā)展和全球經(jīng)濟一體化步伐的加快，企業(yè)競爭日益激烈。企業(yè)間的競爭也可以歸結(jié)為新產(chǎn)品之間的競爭。產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新己經(jīng)成為企業(yè)創(chuàng)新的核心任務(wù)，而產(chǎn)品系統(tǒng)復(fù)雜化已經(jīng)成為大勢之趨，由于復(fù)雜產(chǎn)品的研發(fā)具有投資高、技術(shù)復(fù)雜、周期長、風險高的特點。為了確保產(chǎn)品研發(fā)的成功，必須進行風險管理，包括風險識別、風險度量、風險傳遞以及風險控制。在復(fù)雜產(chǎn)品研發(fā)的過程中主制造商-供應(yīng)商模式也逐漸被各個企業(yè)所接受，本文也著重研究了該模式下復(fù)雜產(chǎn)品研發(fā)風險的傳遞。 本文基于經(jīng)典GERT網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型，研究了單一研發(fā)風險傳遞模型以及綜合研發(fā)風險模型及其相關(guān)內(nèi)容，并將其的算法運用到了實際案例中，文章的主要研究內(nèi)容如下： （1）明確主制造商-供應(yīng)商模式，建立了材料及零部件供應(yīng)商-子系統(tǒng)供應(yīng)商-主制造商的三階段模型。明確復(fù)雜產(chǎn)品研發(fā)風險特點，進行研發(fā)風險的識別，確定要研究的復(fù)雜產(chǎn)品研發(fā)風險，并針對進度和費用兩個方面的風險進一步研究。 （2）復(fù)雜產(chǎn)品研發(fā)風險傳遞的研究包括兩個方面：首先，結(jié)合單一參數(shù)的GERT網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型，研究單一研發(fā)風險因素的傳遞過程，從進度風險和費用風險兩個方面來研究傳遞的機制和度量方法。然后，結(jié)合多參數(shù)的R-GERT網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型，研究綜合研發(fā)風險的傳遞過程，將綜合研發(fā)風險看作是進度風險的函數(shù)，通過相關(guān)的定義以及定理的證明來確定多參數(shù)R-GERT網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型的求解方法，最后再結(jié)合每個子系統(tǒng)供應(yīng)商對主制造商的風險貢獻率，，求出主制造商最終的綜合研發(fā)風險大小。 （3）用實例對上述單一研發(fā)風險因素以及綜合研發(fā)風險的模型進行驗證，并提出相應(yīng)的風險控制的對策，主要是以某型號飛機的研發(fā)過程作為研究的對象，通過整合現(xiàn)有該型號的資料，構(gòu)建相應(yīng)的R-GERT模型，求得綜合研發(fā)風險的傳遞機制，并給出主制造商控制風險的對策。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of information technology and the acceleration of global economic integration, enterprise competition is becoming increasingly fierce. Competition among enterprises can also be attributed to competition among new products. Product innovation has become the core task of enterprise innovation, and the complexity of product system has become the trend of the general trend, because the R & D of complex products has the characteristics of high investment, complex technology, long cycle and high risk. Risk management, including risk identification, risk measurement, risk transmission and risk control, is necessary to ensure the success of product development. In the process of complex product research and development, the main manufacturer-supplier model is gradually accepted by various enterprises, this paper also focuses on the complex product R & D risk transfer. Based on the classical GERT network model, this paper studies the single R & D risk transfer model and the integrated R D risk model and its related contents, and applies its algorithm to a practical case. The main contents of this paper are as follows: (1) the main manufacturer-supplier model is defined and a three-stage model of material and parts supplier-subsystem supplier-main manufacturer is established. The characteristics of R & D risk of complex products are defined, the risk of R D is identified, the R D risk of complex product is determined, and the risk of schedule and cost is further studied. (2) the research on risk transfer of complex product research includes two aspects: firstly, the transmission process of single R & D risk factor is studied by combining the GERT network model with single parameter. The transmission mechanism and measurement method are studied from two aspects of schedule risk and cost risk. Then, combined with the multi-parameter R-GERT network model, the transfer process of comprehensive R & D risk is studied, and the integrated R & D risk is regarded as a function of schedule risk. The solution method of multi-parameter R-GERT network model is determined by relevant definition and theorem proof. Finally, combined with the risk contribution rate of each subsystem supplier to the main manufacturer, the final comprehensive R & D risk of the main manufacturer is obtained. (3) to verify the risk factors of single R & D and the model of comprehensive R & D risk with an example, and put forward the corresponding countermeasures of risk control, mainly taking the R & D process of a certain type of aircraft as the object of study. By integrating the existing data of this model, the corresponding R-GERT model is constructed, and the transmission mechanism of comprehensive R & D risk is obtained, and the countermeasures of controlling the risk of the main manufacturer are given.
【學位授予單位】：南京航空航天大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F273.2;F224

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