【摘要】：當(dāng)今中國經(jīng)濟(jì)形式復(fù)雜、房地產(chǎn)政策多變，再加上房地產(chǎn)業(yè)在中國興起不到30年，市場上可用于檢驗(yàn)的數(shù)據(jù)不足，缺少有效的實(shí)踐經(jīng)驗(yàn)，使得目前對房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的研究和運(yùn)用還不深入和完善，已有的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)研究方法主要集中在定性分析和主觀的經(jīng)驗(yàn)決策，定量方法的使用相對較少。此外，在開發(fā)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的有效識別以及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對措施上，也尚缺乏深入的分析與研究。 本文按照房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)的全過程，將房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分為立項(xiàng)決策階段、前期準(zhǔn)備階段、建設(shè)施工階段，出租銷售階段和后續(xù)服務(wù)階段，著重從5個(gè)階段系統(tǒng)分析房地產(chǎn)投資可能出現(xiàn)的所有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素，，在此基礎(chǔ)上按照風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的動態(tài)變化分析原則，對房地產(chǎn)投資進(jìn)行到某一階段時(shí)的全過程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行有效的分析，并運(yùn)用專家評價(jià)等相關(guān)理論有效地識別出關(guān)鍵的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素；據(jù)此建立風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系，進(jìn)而運(yùn)用多層次動態(tài)集成化的模糊綜合評價(jià)方法對投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行有效的評價(jià)；此外，對實(shí)際案例進(jìn)行分析，驗(yàn)證風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)方法的有效性；最后，根據(jù)房地產(chǎn)集成化的動態(tài)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)綜合評價(jià)結(jié)果，為我國房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項(xiàng)目投資者提供科學(xué)合理的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對方法和具體的應(yīng)對措施。
[Abstract]:Today, China's economy is complex, real estate policies are changeable, and the real estate industry has been emerging in China for less than 30 years. There are not enough data available for testing in the market, and there is a lack of effective practical experience. At present, the research and application of investment risk in real estate development is not thorough and perfect. The existing research methods of risk evaluation are mainly focused on qualitative analysis and subjective empirical decision, and the use of quantitative methods is relatively less. In addition, there is a lack of in-depth analysis and research on the effective identification of investment risks and risk response measures. According to the whole process of real estate development, this paper divides the investment risk of real estate development into three stages: project decision stage, early preparation stage, construction stage, rental sale stage and follow-up service stage. On the basis of analyzing all the possible risk factors of real estate investment in five stages, the whole process risk of real estate investment is analyzed effectively according to the principle of dynamic change analysis of risk. The key risk factors are effectively identified by using expert evaluation and other relevant theories, and the index system of risk evaluation is established, and then the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of multi-level dynamic integration is used to evaluate the investment risk effectively. The effectiveness of the risk assessment method is verified by analyzing the actual cases. Finally, according to the integrated dynamic investment risk comprehensive evaluation results of real estate, To provide scientific and reasonable risk response methods and specific measures for investors of real estate development projects in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：沈陽理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.233.46

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本文編號：2239920