【摘要】：本文從全國、分省、分縣不同尺度對我國食物實際產(chǎn)量進(jìn)行整理、修正。通過不同產(chǎn)源對食物進(jìn)行分類,根據(jù)熱量、蛋白質(zhì)、脂肪不同含量將不同食物分農(nóng)、林、牧、漁生態(tài)系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行匯總分析。進(jìn)而結(jié)合不同階段將我國食物消費分溫飽、小康、富裕進(jìn)行營養(yǎng)分配,對我國食物供給情況做全面分析。在對食物供給分析過程中,發(fā)現(xiàn)我國食物供給情況符合Logistic曲線增長趨勢。又根據(jù)我國土壤分布、氣候變化、太陽輻射等自然信息,對我國最大食物供給情況進(jìn)行模擬求解,獲得我國未來食物最大供給量。結(jié)合我國30多年食物統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)與我國未來食物最大供給情況,使用Logistic模型對我國未來年份食物供給情況進(jìn)行模擬。 本文收集了我國農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的主要食物供應(yīng)源,包含農(nóng)、林、牧、漁生態(tài)系統(tǒng)40余項主產(chǎn)食物進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計分析。分析內(nèi)容包含總產(chǎn)、單產(chǎn)、比重、趨勢等方面,通過分析了解到我國食物單產(chǎn)、總產(chǎn)均保持良好的增長趨勢,根據(jù)中央18億畝耕地紅線的控制,我國未來食物產(chǎn)量也必將得以保持。通過對統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)分省區(qū)、縣域的空間分析,在空間分布上對我國食物供給情況分析。分析結(jié)果顯示我國食物供給情況分布基本符合我國人口分布特點,但是部分地區(qū)食物產(chǎn)量不能保障人口所需存在明顯的區(qū)域食物短缺情況。 食物供給模擬研究的主要方法總結(jié)起來包含經(jīng)驗?zāi)Ｐ秃蜋C(jī)理模型。本文通過對經(jīng)驗?zāi)Ｐ偷倪M(jìn)一步補(bǔ)充,結(jié)合我國過去六十年土壤類型、土壤水分、降水、氣溫信息對我國農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)最大食物供給量進(jìn)行模擬求解,模擬出我國農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的最大食物供給能力。通過與我國食物統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)的比較,在空間分布上基本符合我國食物分布的情況。從模擬結(jié)果來看,我國生態(tài)系統(tǒng)最大供給能力比我國現(xiàn)在食物產(chǎn)出要高出很多,說明我國資源利用還有很大的提升空間。在對區(qū)域進(jìn)行比較過程中,發(fā)現(xiàn)部分區(qū)域的生態(tài)利用程度已經(jīng)超出最大生態(tài)所能供給的范圍,在這些區(qū)域應(yīng)該注意生態(tài)的保護(hù)工作和區(qū)域生態(tài)補(bǔ)償。 在對我國食物供給的統(tǒng)計分析過程中,分析結(jié)果顯示我國食物產(chǎn)出趨勢符合Logistic曲線的趨勢。結(jié)合先驗經(jīng)驗,食物的產(chǎn)出也必然存在峰值的限制。在此基礎(chǔ)分析之上,本文選擇使用Logistic模型對我國食物供給情況進(jìn)行模擬。選擇使用經(jīng)驗?zāi)Ｐ湍M的我國農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)最大食物供給作為我國食物供給的最大值限制,統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)作為梯度增長數(shù)據(jù),年份作為時間梯度對我國未來年份食物供給進(jìn)行模擬。首先,使用以上數(shù)據(jù)對Logistic模型中的未知參數(shù)進(jìn)行求解,再用統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行驗證,在滿足誤差范圍之內(nèi)時最終確定模型形式,最后使用確定模型對我國未來年份食物供給情況進(jìn)行模擬。本文模擬了我國未來10年、20年、30年的食物供給情況,分析結(jié)果顯示我國2020年食物可供給人口數(shù)量為18.2億,2030年食物可供給人口數(shù)量為20.3億,2040年食物可供給人口數(shù)量為21.4億。通過對模擬結(jié)果的分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)在未來時間里我國食物供應(yīng)在較長時間內(nèi)會保持持續(xù)增加的趨勢,并不會因為我國在人口達(dá)到峰值之前因為食物短缺而造成對世界食物依賴的情況。 通過對我國往年統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)的分析,對我國最大食物供應(yīng)能力的模擬結(jié)果和對未來年份食物供給情況的模擬分析,在時間梯度上縱觀的對我國食物供給情況進(jìn)行了解。結(jié)果顯示,我國不會出現(xiàn)食物恐慌的局面,而且在我國人口達(dá)到峰值后,我國的食物輸出還會為世界食物提供食物輸出。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the actual food production in China is sorted out and revised at different scales of the whole country, provinces and counties. Food is classified according to different sources of production, and different food is divided into agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery ecosystems according to different contents of heat, protein and fat. In the process of food supply analysis, it is found that China's food supply conforms to the increasing trend of the Logistic curve. According to the natural information of soil distribution, climate change and solar radiation, the maximum food supply in China is simulated and solved, and the results are not available in China. According to the food statistics of more than 30 years in China and the maximum food supply in the future in China, the food supply in the coming years in China is simulated by using Logistic model.
In this paper, the main food supply sources of agro-ecosystem in China were collected, including more than 40 main food products of agro-ecosystem, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery ecosystem. The contents of the analysis included total yield, unit yield, specific gravity, trend and so on. Through the analysis, it was found that the food yield in China maintained a good growth trend, according to the 1.8 billion mu cultivated land red. The results show that the distribution of food supply in China basically conforms to the characteristics of population distribution, but food production in some areas can not guarantee the population. There is a visible regional food shortage.
The main methods of food supply simulation research are summarized as empirical model and mechanism model.Based on the further supplement of empirical model and combined with the information of soil type, soil moisture, precipitation and temperature in the past 60 years in China, the maximum food supply of agricultural ecosystem in China is simulated and solved, and the agricultural ecology in China is simulated. Comparing with the statistical data of food in China, the spatial distribution of the system is basically in line with the food distribution in China. From the simulation results, the maximum supply capacity of the ecosystem in China is much higher than that of the food output in China, indicating that there is still much room for improvement in the utilization of resources in China. In the process of comparing the regions, it is found that the degree of ecological utilization in some areas has exceeded the scope of the maximum ecological supply, and ecological protection and regional ecological compensation should be paid attention to in these areas.
In the process of statistical analysis of food supply in China, the results show that the trend of food output conforms to the trend of Logistic curve. Combining with prior experience, the output of food is bound to be limited by the peak value. The maximum food supply in China's agricultural ecosystem simulated by the model is regarded as the maximum limit of food supply in China. Statistical data are used as gradient growth data and years as time gradient to simulate food supply in China's future years. The food supply in the next 10 years, 20 years and 30 years in China is simulated. The results show that the food supply in 2020 is 1.82 billion and the food supply in 2030 is acceptable. According to the analysis of the simulation results, it is found that China's food supply will continue to increase for a long time in the future, and will not depend on the world food because of the shortage of food before the population reaches its peak. Condition.
Based on the analysis of the statistical data of past years in China, the simulation results of the maximum food supply capacity in China and the simulation analysis of the food supply situation in the coming years are given. The results show that there will be no food panic in China, and after the peak of population in China China's food export will also provide food output for world food.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F224;F326

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