【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)業(yè)作為宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要承載體,其穩(wěn)定有序地發(fā)展將極大地促進(jìn)人民生活水平的提高、維持市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定、推動(dòng)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。 通過對(duì)近年房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的分析發(fā)現(xiàn)：一方面盡管面臨國(guó)家強(qiáng)勢(shì)的調(diào)控,但房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)、銷售依然過熱；另一方面,證券市場(chǎng)上地產(chǎn)股表現(xiàn)平平,而企業(yè)對(duì)外公布的年報(bào)中經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī)卻驕人。因此,投資者不能較好把握房地產(chǎn)上市公司的投資價(jià)值,做出理性的投資決策存在較大困難。 基于此,本文提出以下研究目的：其一是梳理房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)特點(diǎn)及房地產(chǎn)上市公司投資價(jià)值的影響因素；其二,尋找目前綜合排名靠前且受投資者青睞的房地產(chǎn)上市公司較為合理的內(nèi)在投資價(jià)值,便于投資者決策。 本文研究主要采用規(guī)范研究和案例分析相結(jié)合的方法,全文共分為六章,各章的主要內(nèi)容如下： 第一章,緒論。分析了研究背景,說明研究意義和目的,列示了本文的研究思路,最后合理預(yù)期了可能具有的貢獻(xiàn)。 第二章,文獻(xiàn)綜述。首先對(duì)西方企業(yè)價(jià)值評(píng)估理論方面的研究成果及投資價(jià)值影響因素進(jìn)行梳理；國(guó)內(nèi)文獻(xiàn)方面,通過參考投資價(jià)值評(píng)估實(shí)踐研究的成果,明確了下文研究的理論基礎(chǔ)、模型方法。 第三章,理論基礎(chǔ)。本章從基礎(chǔ)的理論及投資價(jià)值等方面梳理了本文研究中所用到的相關(guān)原理和基礎(chǔ)。 第四章,房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)投資價(jià)值影響因素分析及評(píng)估方法說明。本章首先對(duì)房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的特殊性進(jìn)行了剖析,進(jìn)而對(duì)影響房地產(chǎn)上市公司投資價(jià)值的因素進(jìn)行了全面分析,最后基于其特點(diǎn)確立了下文研究的方法和模型。 第五章,房地產(chǎn)上市公司投資價(jià)值評(píng)估案例分析。本章以保利地產(chǎn)作為重點(diǎn)樣本,運(yùn)用剩余收益模型估測(cè)了其投資價(jià)值,并類推估測(cè)了所有9家樣本企業(yè)的投資價(jià)值。 第六章,研究結(jié)論、建議及局限性。對(duì)本文的研究?jī)?nèi)容進(jìn)行了總結(jié),就此分析了投資于房地產(chǎn)上市公司所面臨的內(nèi)部和外部的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),并做出了建議,最后分析了研究的局限性。 本文的主要結(jié)論和建議如下： 第一,以保利地產(chǎn)、萬科集團(tuán)、金地集團(tuán)等為代表的業(yè)內(nèi)優(yōu)質(zhì)企業(yè),其市場(chǎng)價(jià)格明顯低于其內(nèi)在投資價(jià)值,這是受宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)周期、國(guó)家政策調(diào)控以及市場(chǎng)中投資者觀望態(tài)勢(shì)濃厚等多方面因素造成的,其未來增值的潛力巨大,是良好的長(zhǎng)線投資選擇； 第二,以金科地產(chǎn)為代表的少數(shù)房地產(chǎn)上市公司,盡管其近年來表現(xiàn)優(yōu)異,但其因運(yùn)營(yíng)等多方面存在著潛在危機(jī),一旦爆發(fā)將給企業(yè)造成巨大的損失,投資者在投資抉擇時(shí)需要謹(jǐn)慎對(duì)待。 本文可能的預(yù)期貢獻(xiàn)有： 第一,基于多角度梳理了房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的特殊性； 第二,從典型的預(yù)售模式、收入確認(rèn)的滯后性角度,解釋了房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)在證券市場(chǎng)上表現(xiàn)低迷和財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表中優(yōu)異的經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī)之間的矛盾性； 第三,結(jié)合杜邦分析體系,對(duì)剩余收益模型進(jìn)行了修正,量化了行業(yè)內(nèi)綜合實(shí)力良好的數(shù)家房地產(chǎn)上市公司內(nèi)在投資價(jià)值,有助于投資者決策。
[Abstract]:As an important carrier of macro economy, the real and stable development of the real estate industry will greatly promote the improvement of the people's living standard, maintain the stability of the market economy and promote the sustainable development of the national economy.
Through the analysis of the real estate industry in recent years, it is found that the real estate development and sales are still overheated on the one hand, while the real estate development and sales are still overheated. On the other hand, the real estate stocks in the securities market are flat, while the business performance of the annual reports published by the enterprises is arrogant. Therefore, the investment owners can not better grasp the investment of the real estate listed companies. There are great difficulties in making rational investment decisions.
Based on this, this paper puts forward the following research purposes: one is to comb the characteristics of real estate enterprises and the influencing factors of the investment value of real estate listed companies; secondly, to find the more reasonable intrinsic investment value of the real estate listed companies, which are currently in the front and favored by the investors, so as to facilitate the decision of the investors.
This paper mainly adopts the method of combining normative research with case analysis. The full text is divided into six chapters. The main contents of each chapter are as follows:
The first chapter, introduction, analyzes the research background, explains the significance and purpose of the study, lists the research ideas, and finally reasonably anticipates the possible contributions.
The second chapter, literature review. First of all, the research results of the western enterprise value evaluation theory and the influence factors of investment value are combed; in the domestic literature, the theoretical basis and model method of the following research are clarified by reference to the achievements of the practice of investment valuation.
The third chapter is the theoretical basis. This chapter combs the relevant principles and foundations used in this study from the basic theory and investment value.
The fourth chapter is the analysis of the factors affecting the investment value of real estate enterprises and the method of evaluation. This chapter first analyzes the particularity of the real estate enterprises, and then analyzes the factors affecting the investment value of the real estate listed companies, and finally establishes the methods and models of the next research based on the characteristics of the real estate companies.
The fifth chapter, the case analysis of the investment value evaluation of the real estate listed companies. This chapter takes Pauli real estate as the key sample, estimates its investment value using the residual income model, and estimates the investment value of all 9 sample enterprises.
The sixth chapter, the conclusion, the suggestion and the limitation, summarizes the research content of this article, and analyzes the internal and external risks faced by the listed real estate companies, and makes some suggestions, and finally analyzes the limitations of the research.
The main conclusions and suggestions of this paper are as follows:
First, the high quality enterprises, represented by Pauli real estate, Vanke Group and Jindi group, are obviously lower in market prices than their intrinsic investment value. This is caused by many factors such as the macroeconomic cycle, national policy regulation and the strong view of the investors in the market. The potential of its future value-added is great, and it is a good long line investment. The choice of capital;
Second, a few real estate listed companies, represented by Jinke real estate, have a potential crisis in many aspects, such as operation, although their performance is excellent in recent years. Once the outbreak is going to cause huge losses to the enterprises, investors need to be treated carefully in the choice of investment.
The expected contributions of this article are as follows:
First, the particularity of real estate enterprises is discussed based on multiple perspectives.
Second, from the typical pre-sale mode and the lag of income confirmation, the contradiction between the performance of the real estate companies in the stock market and the outstanding performance in the financial statements is explained.
Third, combined with DuPont's analysis system, the residual income model was amended to quantify the intrinsic investment value of several real estate listed companies with good comprehensive strength in the industry, which would help investors to make decisions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.233.42

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