本文選題：短期國際資本 + 房地產(chǎn)價格��； 參考：《廈門大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著全球資本市場逐漸向一體化和國際化方向發(fā)展以及各國金融衍生品市場的快速發(fā)展,國際資本的跨境流動不僅規(guī)模越來越大而且更加頻繁,FDI已經(jīng)不再是資本流動的主要途徑。在這些流動的國際資本中,短期國際資本逐漸變成國際資金流動的主要形式,規(guī)模迅速發(fā)展,并且影響著一國乃至全球經(jīng)濟體的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展。 目前,房地產(chǎn)市場日益成為支撐我國經(jīng)濟金融發(fā)展的基礎產(chǎn)業(yè)。房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資在我國社會總投資中占據(jù)著較大比重,帶動著上下游行業(yè)的投資發(fā)展。巨大的獲利空間使得外資大量進入我國房地產(chǎn)市場,然而在20世紀90年代以來發(fā)生的幾次金融危機中,短期國際資本大量外逃與這些國家房地產(chǎn)市場動蕩都相伴而生。以90年代延續(xù)至今的日本經(jīng)濟危機、1997年亞洲金融危機和2008年由美國開始的國際金融危機為例,由于資金大量外逃,市場資金供給出現(xiàn)緊縮,同時監(jiān)管部門不斷出臺沖銷手段,兩者加劇導致資金成本的上升,作為資本密集型的房地產(chǎn)業(yè)在這歷次金融危機中都產(chǎn)生資金鏈危機�？紤]到房地產(chǎn)市場對我國經(jīng)濟、金融的重要性,以及歷次資本外逃導致的房地產(chǎn)市場危機,因此,研究我國短期國際資本流動與房地產(chǎn)價格變動之間的關系不僅具有理論意義,也有現(xiàn)實意義。 本文采用VAR模型對2003年至2013年我國一線城市房地產(chǎn)價格和短期國際資本流動月度數(shù)據(jù)進行實證分析。本文得出以下主要結(jié)論,我國房地產(chǎn)價格變動對我國短期國際資本流動有顯著的影響。此外,我國短期國際資本流動的變化不會幾乎不會對我國房地產(chǎn)價格產(chǎn)生影響。相對于我國短期國際資本流動規(guī)模變動,我國房地產(chǎn)價格變動對自身的影響程度更大�，F(xiàn)階段我國短期國際資本的大量流出屬于正常流動范疇,不會引發(fā)房地產(chǎn)市場危機,更不會引起我國金融危機的爆發(fā)。針對實證結(jié)果,本文認為我國政府需要注重以下幾點：第一,改善短期國際資本流動監(jiān)管體系；第二,規(guī)范短期國際資本流動領域。
[Abstract]:With the gradual development of global capital markets towards integration and internationalization and the rapid development of financial derivatives markets in various countries, The cross-border flow of international capital is not only increasing in scale but also more frequent FDI is no longer the main way of capital flow. Among these flows of international capital, short-term international capital gradually becomes the main form of international capital flow, the scale of rapid development, and affects the economic development of a country and even the global economy. At present, the real estate market has increasingly become the basic industry supporting the economic and financial development of our country. The investment of real estate development occupies a large proportion in the total investment of our society, and drives the investment development of upstream and downstream industries. The huge profit space makes the foreign capital enter the real estate market of our country in large quantities. However, in several financial crises since the 1990s, a large amount of short-term international capital flight comes along with the turbulence of these countries' real estate market. Take the Japanese economic crisis that continued in the 1990s, the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the international financial crisis started by the United States in 2008 as an example. As a result of a large number of capital flight, the supply of funds in the market has been tightened, and the regulatory authorities have constantly introduced sterilisation measures. As a capital-intensive real estate industry, capital chain crisis occurred in every financial crisis. Considering the importance of the real estate market to our economy and finance, as well as the crisis of the real estate market caused by the capital flight, it is not only of theoretical significance to study the relationship between the short-term international capital flow and the real estate price change in our country. It also has practical significance. This paper uses VAR model to analyze the monthly data of real estate prices and short-term international capital flows in first-tier cities from 2003 to 2013. This paper draws the following main conclusions: the change of real estate price has a significant impact on the short-term international capital flow in China. In addition, the change of the short-term international capital flow will hardly affect the real estate price of our country. Compared with the change of the scale of short-term international capital flow, the change of real estate price in our country has a greater impact on itself. At present, the large outflow of short-term international capital in China belongs to the category of normal flow, which will not lead to the crisis of real estate market, nor will it cause the outbreak of financial crisis in our country. Based on the empirical results, this paper argues that our government should pay attention to the following points: first, to improve the supervision system of short-term international capital flows; second, to regulate the field of short-term international capital flows.
【學位授予單位】：廈門大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23;F832.51

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